US embassy cable - 05AMMAN9513

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 009513 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/07/2015 
TAGS: KDEM, PREL, IZ, JO 
SUBJECT: IRAQ ELECTION: IRAQI PARTIES CAMPAIGN FOR VOTES IN 
JORDAN 
 
REF: A. AMMAN 3963 
 
     B. AMMAN 7709 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR DAVID HALE, REASONS: 1.4 (B &D) 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1.  (C) While 23,000 Iraqis in Jordan voted in the January 
2005 elections, Iraqi turnout in Jordan for next week's 
elections should be significantly higher due to a more 
proactive campaign effort in Jordan by several Iraqi 
political parties, greater Sunni Arab participation, efforts 
by theIndependent Electoral Commission of Iraq to explain the 
electoral process, and better information on candidates. 
Iraqi political party activity here includes widespread 
placement of posters, newspaper advertisements, SMS messages 
on mobile phones, free food, and (allegedly), some cash 
payments.  The Allawi, Dulaime, and Mutlak coalitions appear 
to be making the greatest effort.  In contrast, al-Hakim,s 
UIC is showing no public presence at all, though it may be 
well organized behind the scenes.  End Summary. 
 
Iraqi Voters in Jordan 
------------------ 
 
2.  (SBU) Background: Jordan is currently the home of the 
world's largest expatriate Iraqi community - the Iraqi 
Embassy in Amman estimates that about 500,000 Iraqis live in 
Jordan, and some unofficial estimates are considerably 
higher.  While the bulk of Iraqis who came to Jordan before 
2004 were predominantly Sh,ia, since 2004 there has been a 
large influx of Sunni Arabs, many middle class and above (Ref 
A).  Many of these new arrivals view themselves as being here 
temporarily, and hope to return to Iraq after conditions 
stabilize.  Although many are not official "residents" of 
Jordan, the GOJ has agreed that all Iraqis of voting age 
present in Jordan may participate in the Iraq Out-of-Country 
Voting (OCV) process without fear of investigation or 
penalties. 
 
3.  (SBU) Prior to the January 2005 Iraqi election, the 
International Organization for Migration (IOM) - which was 
then responsible for administering the OCV process - 
estimated the total number of potential Iraqi voters in 
Jordan at up to 200,000.  In the election, however, only 
23,000 Iraqis actually voted.  Hamdia al-Husseini, head of 
the Amman-based Independent Election Commission for Iraq 
(IECI) office that is directly administering the December, 
2005 elections, told Emboff she believes that as many as 
300,000 eligible Iraqi voters may now be in Jordan.  End 
Background. 
 
High Turnout Projected 
------------------- 
 
4.  (SBU) Whatever the actual figure of potential voters, 
Post contacts agree that Iraqi participation in Jordan next 
week will be much higher than last January.  Jordanian daily 
newspaper Al-Arab Al-Youm projected that as many as 70 
percent of eligible Iraqis in Jordan will vote.  While Post 
contacts are less sanguine, all predicted that the December 
OCV turnout here would exceed 50,000. 
 
5.  (SBU) Contacts maintain that the projected upswing in 
turnout will result from increased interest in voting among 
Sunnis, IECI advertisements that explain the electoral 
process and the documentation required to vote, much-improved 
information about parties and candidates, a greater sense of 
this election,s importance, and significant post-January 
election regret among those who did not participate in that 
election.  Majid al-Sadi, a prominent businessman who did not 
vote in the January election, told Emboff that he considered 
voting this time around a "national duty."  Hassan Aldahan, 
another January election non-participant, explained that 
"last time I knew nothing about the candidates - this time 
there is much more information."  Aldahan noted that he and 
his friends actively watch Iraqi election candidate 
programming on satellite TV stations al-Iraqiyya and 
al-Sharqiyya. 
 
Iraqi Political Parties Seek Votes 
------------------------- 
 
6.  (C) Al-Sadi, Aldahan, and other contacts also note more 
effective political party organizations and media campaigns 
targeting Iraqi voters in Jordan this time around.  Until 
recently, many Amman neighborhoods and highway overpasses 
were replete with a variety of political posters advertising 
the parties of Iyad Allawi, Saleh Mutlak, Hassib al-Obeidi, 
Hazim Sha,lan, and others.  Some of these were allegedly 
removed by rival parties or Jordanian authorities within a 
few hours of being posted; Ja,afar al-Taie, an Allawi 
campaign manager, told Emboff that someone wrote "don,t 
support Ba,athists" over some of the Allawi posters. 
Al-Taie opined that this incident contributed to a subsequent 
decision by the Municipality of Amman to limit Iraqi election 
posters to the immediate vicinity of Amman,s ten OCV polling 
sites.  Note: Al-Taie and al-Sadi also asserted that a 
planned Allawi support rally following the recent Najaf 
incident was cancelled by Jordanian authorities.  End Note. 
 
7.  (SBU) Several Iraqi political parties are also 
advertising heavily in Jordanian newspapers.  In recent days 
several full and half-page color ads have appeared in 
Jordanian newspapers on behalf of the coalitions of Iyad 
Allawi, Adnan Dulaime, and Saleh Mutlak, as well as Hazim 
Sha,lan,s party, with smaller ads appearing for the 
Movement of Arab Iraqis and the Iraqi Coalition, led by 
ex-Interior Minister Nuri Badran.  The Dulaime coalition also 
sent an SMS to Jordanian mobile phones (including Emboff,s) 
telling Iraqis in Jordan that a vote for them is a "vote for 
honesty and against sectionalism and sectarianism."  Former 
Saddam Hussein associate, Anbar native, and January election 
boycotter Abdul Latif Humayum gave an interview to a 
Jordanian newspaper calling on all Iraqis in Jordan to vote. 
 
Free Dinners and Food Parcels 
---------------------- 
 
8.  (C) Al-Taie, Aldahan, and independent Sunni political 
dabbler Mohammed al-Hamdi from Ramadhi (Ref B) told Emboff 
that Saleh Mutlak,s coalition rented out some local 
restaurants and night clubs to host free parties and dinners 
in support of their cause.  Al-Hamdi said that Mutlak,s 
Jordan OCV campaign is being managed by two of his eight 
brothers, Musleh and Taha, who have opened a campaign office 
in downtown Amman.   Iyad Allawi,s coalition has also opened 
a campaign office in Amman.  Both al-Hamdi and Embassy Sunni 
contact Husam Ghazalee (close to Hassib al-Obeidi - protect) 
alleged that several parties, including Mutlak,s, are 
offering cash payments and other inducements to those who can 
turn out Jordan-based voters in their favor.  Al-Taie 
admitted that the Allawi group is sending food packages to 
poor Iraqis in Jordan, and sponsoring football matches 
featuring well-known Iraqi players, with the same goal in 
mind. 
 
Where is the UIC? 
---------------- 
 
9.  (C) Sh,ia religious parties, including the Unified Iraqi 
Coalition (UIC), have not advertised to date in Jordanian 
papers or undertaken any other campaign activities here that 
we have been able to identify.  Al-Hamdi claimed that the 
Sh,ia religious parties rely on neighborhood networks to 
turn out their vote; Aldahan asserted that an explicit 
message from religious leaders in Najaf is all that is 
necessary to activate these voters.  The UIC won the 
plurality of Jordanian OCV votes last January, followed by 
Allawi,s group.  Most Embassy contacts predict that next 
week, Allawi,s coalition will end up first in Jordan, with 
the UIC second; all felt that Allawi,s Jordan organization 
was strong.  However, at least one Jordanian paper recently 
predicted that Allawi will finish behind both Dulaime,s and 
Mutlak,s coalitions. 
 
Comment 
--------- 
 
10.  (C) Iraq OCV campaigning in Jordan,s relatively open 
atmosphere is a possible microcosm of what Iraqi urban 
politicking could be like once Iraq,s situation stabilizes. 
The relatively intense campaigning going on in Jordan 
compared to last January is somewhat surprising given the 
marginal impact of OCV (compared to in-Iraq voting) on 
Iraq,s election outcome.   It may reflect the greater 
importance given to this election by the parties, as well as 
a Sunni Arab desire to "stand up and be counted" as much as 
possible this time around. 
HALE