US embassy cable - 05ADDISABABA4066

C O N F I D E N T I A L ADDIS ABABA 004066 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AF FOR DAS YAMAMOTO, USUN FOR EMILY BRUNO FROM CHARGE 
HUDDLESTON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/15 
TAGS: PREL, KPKO, MARR, ET, ER, EE BORDER 
SUBJECT: MELES ON THE E/E BORDER - ETHIOPIA WILL RE-DEPLOY 
TO DECEMBER 2004 POSITIONS 
 
REF: ADDIS ABABA 4044 
 
Classified By: Classified By: Charge Vicki Huddleston for reason 1.4 (b 
,d) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  In a meeting with CJTF-HOA Commander General 
Ghormley and Ambassador concerning expansion of civil affairs 
projects in the Ogaden, Prime Minister Meles provided us with 
a read out on the border situation.  He said that Isaias is 
sending signals to the US and the UN because he wants to 
irritate those he blames for his current situation.  Ethiopia 
will send him back a good signal by complying with the recent 
UNSC resolution demanding re-deployment of his forces to 
December 2004 positions.  Meles cautioned that if the UN is 
going to play the game and threaten Isaias, then it must be 
prepared to follow up with its trump card -- withdrawal of 
UNMEE because Isaias understands only power. UNMEE does not 
prevent war.  A better option may be to avoid precipitous 
action and do nothing.  Isaias will go if he thinks he can 
win and if not he will find a way out, according to Meles. 
End summary. 
 
2. (C)  Prime Minister Meles said he is not surprised nor is 
he unduly worried about Eritrea's ultimatum to the UN. It is 
designed to irritate all those who Isaias blames for his 
situation.  Isaias will continue to take actions to call 
attention to himself and the situation until he is convinced 
that no one will respond.  At that point he will make his 
decision one way or another.  If Isaias concludes that he can 
win a conflict, he will go to war if not he will find a way 
out.  Isaias is very smart and  rationale.  But "we will not 
be irritated" Meles continued.  We will re-deploy to our 
December 2004 positions.  Although there are Eritrea troops 
in the TSZ, we don't believe that this will jeopardize our 
re-deployment.  I commended Meles for sticking with this 
decision because it sends a good signal to Ethiopia and the 
international community; he responded that it also sends a 
good signal to Isaias. 
 
3. (C) Meles' advice for dealing with Eritrea was that the UN 
and the US should not threaten unless we are prepared to back 
up our words.  "If the UN is irritated, then Isaias will do 
more." "He will succeed if the UN gets irritated because he 
wants people to get upset."  The Prime Minister opined that 
the UN has two options: 
 
          -- not to play Isaias game and he will come around; 
 
          -- or stop the game early on. 
 
The biggest mistake would be to threaten and then not carry 
through. "Don't play the game if you are unwilling to 
withdraw UNMEE," Meles said.  His advice to the UN is that 
UNMEE is their trump card.  If the UN threatens Eritrea and 
Isaias does not respond, it must be prepared to withdraw 
UNMEE.  In his view, UNMEE neither adds nor subtracts from 
peace on the border, but if Isaias wants UNMEE to stay he 
will make sure it does stay. I pointed out that UNMEE 
officials, based on prior conversation with the Foreign 
Minister, believe that Ethiopia would reoccupy the TSZ. 
Meles responded that this is not necessarily the case. 
Ethiopia is re-deploying in order to communicate with Isaias 
because if he wants war nothing will stop him, but if he 
assesses the situation and decides he cannot win he will not 
start a conflict.  Isaias is talking to the US and to 
Ethiopia, Meles said but he cautioned we may not want to play 
the game because we have other distractions and Isaias is a 
master at his game.  Therefore it may be best to do nothing. 
Knee jerk reactions should be avoided. 
HUDDLESTON