US embassy cable - 02RANGOON1592

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001592 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INL AND EAP 
USCINCPAC FOR FPA 
NSC FOR BEERS 
DEA FOR OF, OFF 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2012 
TAGS: SNAR, PTER, PINS, BM 
SUBJECT:  DRUGS, THUGS AND FACTS 
 
REF: A. (A) BANGKOK 8488 
     B. (B) BANGKOK 08493 
     C. (C) CHIANG MAI 0302 
 
Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez. Reason: 1.5 (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary: Embassy Rangoon wants to provide 
clarification and counterpoint to reftels reporting on Burma 
counterterrorism and counternarcotics issues. When discussing 
drugs and thugs, accurate information is absolutely crucial 
to framing USG counternarcotics stategy in the context of 
Burma-Thai relations.  Reftels draw some unwarranted 
conclusions that distort the discussion of narcotics and 
terrorism issues in Burma and Thailand. Post also encourages 
more support for Burmese/Thai cooperation on the 
methamphetamine problem as, in contrast to opium (which is 
being attacked effectively at its source in Burma), it is a 
regional problem which must be dealt with through regional 
strategies. The Thaksin government appears to understand this 
but, to judge from recent reports, that understanding is not 
yet wide-spread within the ranks of Thai officials.  End 
Summary. 
 
Terrorism 
 
2. (C) Reftel A concludes that the evidence suggests the SPDC 
is bombing Burmese embassies as part of a "dirty tricks" 
campaign against pro-democracy groups in Thailand. There is 
no doubt that defaming these groups is a priority for the 
SPDC. However, more facts, and an examination of the motives 
of all parties involved, are needed before basing such a 
conclusion solely on information provided by an FTUB (Free 
Trade Union of Burma) contact with "allies" at the Thai NSC. 
Right now, saying the letter bombs are just "dirty tricks" is 
unwarranted. 
 
3.  (C) Two points in particular stand out.  First, aside 
from initial press mention of the  receipt of the letter 
bombs, the GOB has not heavily publicized the mail bombing 
campaign against their embassies. If the SPDC was trying to 
blame the FTUB or any other Thai based pro-democracy groups, 
one can bet they would be mounting one of their heavy-handed 
media blitzes and accusing those groups of terrorist acts. 
Secondly, the reason the GOB has not turned the bombs over to 
the Thais is because, according to our sources, the bombs 
were either destroyed (in some cases), or turned over to the 
host-country authorities where the targeted Burmese embassies 
are located. These embassy letter bombings are now under 
investigation by Burmese and, according to Ref A, Thai 
authorities. Once that investigation is complete the guilty 
parties  can be named. Right now the word of the FTUB should 
not be considered the final word on the letter bomb incidents. 
 
Counternarcotics 
 
4. (C) Comments by high ranking RTA officials that the 
Burmese army is flooding Thailand with a billion tablets of 
methamphetamines have morphed from allegations to "fact". 
Although the "billion tablet" allegations were subsequently 
denied in the press by RTA spokesmen, that number has become 
imbedded in the Burma-Thai counternarcotics discussion  and 
it distorts any clear picture of Burmese counternarcotics 
efforts as well as Thai interdiction programs. In Ref B, 
Bangkok reports discussing the RTA statement with senior Thai 
ONCB officials who are quoted as telling Bangkok NAS that 
"any estimates of next year's amphetamine production were 
obviously based on speculation and varied widely" (the RTA 
officials' predictions of one billion methamphetamine pills 
into Thailand this year is also incompatible with available 
data from DEA and ONCB). According to Reftel C, seizures in 
Thailand's northern provinces totaled  about 22 million pills 
 - a number that suggests either unusually inept Thai 
interdiction efforts or that the flow of methamphetamines is 
well below a billion tablets. 
 
5. (C)  Comment: When discussing drugs and thugs, accurate 
information is always absolutely crucial to framing USG 
counternarcotics and counterterrorism strategy - so should it 
be in discussing these issues in the regional context of 
Burma and Thailand. Post offers our views as counterpoint and 
clarification to reftels and makes this observation: in 
contrast to opium, which is being attacked effectively at its 
source in Burma, methamphetamine production and trafficking 
are regional problems and they must be treated through 
regional strategies and cooperation. The same applies to 
counterterrorism efforts. The Thaksin government appears to 
understand this but, to judge from recent reports, that 
understanding is not yet wide-spread within the ranks of Thai 
officials.  End Comment. 
Martinez