US embassy cable - 05LILONGWE1031

UNCLAS LILONGWE 001031 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/S JEANNE MALONEY 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM, PGOV, MI 
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT'S PARTY SWEEPS BY-ELECTION 
 
REF: A. LILONGWE 914 
     B. LILONGWE 937 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: In its first test at the polls, President 
Mutharika's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has won all 
six parliamentary seats up for grabs in the December 6 
by-election.  It is a huge win for the DPP and the President, 
giving Mutharika a vote of confidence from the populace and 
effectively legitimizing the DPP as a party.  Observer teams 
organized by the U.S. Mission as well as domestic NGO 
monitors noted that while there were some irregularities, the 
elections as a whole were free and fair. End Summary. 
 
2. (U) Elections were held in three constituencies in 
northern Malawi, and three in the South, in order to fill 
parliamentary seats vacated by death or disqualification. 
While the DPP was expected to win in the North, its victory 
was a surprise in the South--an area long dominated by the 
President's former party, the United Democratic Front (UDF). 
 
3. (SBU) While the electoral victory doesn't dramatically 
shift the balance of power in the 193-member parliament, it 
has proved that the DPP is broadly supported and publicly 
popular.  The election results are also a signal of voter 
mistrust of the UDF, which is associated with the corruption 
of the Muluzi regime, and the highly politicized attempt to 
impeach the president (reftels). 
 
4. (SBU) The U.S. Mission led a team of international 
observers that performed spot-checks at various polling 
stations in five of the six constituencies.  Local elections 
monitors from civil society organizations and all the 
political parties were also present at each polling station. 
While the opposition has registered complaints regarding 
campaigning violations in the lead up to the election, the 
election itself seemed to be both free and fair.  Neither the 
civil society monitors nor the international observers noted 
any major violations.  In fact, the Malawi Electoral 
Commission took a more active role in attacking possible 
corruption than it had in previous elections. 
 
5. (SBU) Comment: The six seats the DPP won won't give it a 
majority in parliament; however, this election was important 
for other reasons.  As the first election since the President 
resigned from the UDF and formed the DPP last spring, it is 
the first direct test of Mutharika's popularity.  Moreover, 
the victory in both the north and south shows that the DPP 
could become Malawi's first nation-wide party since the 
advent of multi-party politics. 
 
6. (SBU) The DPP victory could also be politically damaging 
to the opposition parties themselves.  A number of 
high-profile politicians involved in the losing campaigns had 
been eyeing the 2009 presidential race.  However, their 
losing campaign efforts could knock them out of contention 
for their party nominations in 2009.  At the very least, the 
DPP victory shows the UDF is vulnerable in the southern area 
they've long dominated. End Comment. 
EASTHAM