US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV6846

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 006846 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PTER, KWBG, KPAL, IS, ELECTIONS 2006, GOI INTERNAL, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS 
SUBJECT: LABOR MK HERZOG: "SHARON STOLE HANEGBI," AND MORE 
ON ISRAEL'S "MADHOUSE" POLITICS 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary: In a December 7 meeting with the 
Ambassador, Labor MK and former Housing Minister Isaac 
(Itzchak) Herzog discussed the ever-evolving Israeli 
political scene, including then breaking news that acting 
Likud Party Chairman and Minister-without-Portfolio Tzachi 
Hanegbi had decided to join Prime Minister Sharon's Kadima 
Party.  Herzog said that new Labor Party leader Amir Peretz 
intends to focus the campaign on economic issues, rather than 
security.  Herzog said he believes Kadima and Labor have 
similar diplomatic agendas with regard to the peace process 
and could form a majority coalition in a Sharon-led 
government.  He stressed, however, that Labor wants an 
unconditional uprooting of illegal outposts.  End Summary. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
Herzog: "Pillar of Likud" Hanegbi to Join Kadima 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
2.  (SBU) Labor MK and former Housing Minister Itzchak Herzog 
entered his December 7 meeting with the Ambassador  bursting 
with news that acting Likud Chairman Minister Tzachi Hanegbi 
intended to announce his decision to join the Kadima Party. 
He commented that Israeli politics is a "madhouse" and 
charged that Sharon "stole" Hanegbi.  Herzog referred to 
Hanegbi as "a major pillar of the Likud Party," and assessed 
that Hanegbi's move is a "big blow to Likud."  He 
characterized Hanegbi as an asset to Sharon since Hanegbi has 
strong grassroots ties, something Herzog claimed that Sharon 
lacks.  "(Hanegbi) is a machine of politics," Herzog 
commented, despite the fact that he is "wounded" due to the 
criminal investigation against him for political cronyism. 
Sharon is trying to take everyone with him, according to 
Herzog, and continued that, "I was one of the first people 
Sharon called to ask to join Kadima... Sharon begged me to 
join."  Herzog said he could not do so since the Labor Party 
is his "home." 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
Sharon Won't Fire Mofaz, According to Herzog 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (SBU) In response to the Ambassador's query as to the 
extent to which Sharon and Minister of Defense Shaul Mofaz 
are cooperating since Sharon left Likud, Herzog acknowledged 
that the two could be having problems.  He commented that 
after December 8, Sharon can appoint new ministers without 
Knesset approval.  He added that Sharon can also fire any 
minister, but added that he does not believe Sharon will fire 
Mofaz.  Herzog said that after Likud's December 19 leadership 
primaries, Likud will decide whether to leave the government. 
 In response to the Ambassador's query, Herzog said he does 
not believe that either Mofaz or Foreign Minister Silvan 
Shalom would leave Likud for Kadima, but indicated that given 
the state of play, he could not rule anything out.  At one 
point in the discussion, Herzog remarked that "every six 
hours you have a new crisis." 
 
----------------------------------- 
Labor Wants Campaign on the Economy 
----------------------------------- 
 
4.  (SBU) Turning to the upcoming election campaign and party 
politics, Herzog said that the real campaign battle would be 
over the agenda.  Acknowledging that Sharon has a stronger 
message than Peretz on security issues, Herzog said that 
Labor wants to focus the campaign on the economy rather than 
on security.  He stressed several times during the meeting 
that Peretz is a "hard worker" and that he would be focusing 
on improving his campaign organization.  Herzog also 
discussed Labor's setbacks and weaknesses, including: 
 
-- the decision by former Labor Party interim Chair Shimon 
Peres to ally himself with Sharon; 
-- being embroiled in internal party politics at the expense 
of developing a national campaign; 
-- lack of a strong message on security issues; 
-- some of Peretz's left-of-center platform proposals, such 
as embracing the Oslo Accords and his commitment to appoint 
an Israeli-Arab minister; 
-- replacement of some veteran Labor Party field workers with 
Peretz supporters. 
 
5.  (SBU) On the positive side, Herzog assessed that Labor 
will put together an attractive Knesset list that will 
include Ben Gurion University President Avishai Braverman, 
former Shin Bet head Ami Ayalon, and Labor MKs Yuli Tamir and 
Ofir Pines-Paz.  Herzog asserted that Labor has a good 
security team, but added that "Sharon is more sexy."  In 
response to the Ambassador's query, Herzog said that Labor 
does not plan to recruit any security experts per se to the 
party, but said that Ayalon and Labor MK Binyamin 
Ben-Eliezer, a retired general, bring important security 
experience with them.  Herzog speculated that once Labor has 
a strong Knesset list, and after the Likud primaries, the 
polls will show Kadima with some 30 Knesset seats rather than 
the 40 that polls now predict. 
 
6.  (SBU) Herzog said that Labor will not fully organize its 
national campaign until after Labor's Knesset list primaries, 
likely to be moved up to January 11 from the 17th.  Herzog 
noted that the some 120,000 registered Labor Party members 
would select the list, with the first 12 slots reserved for 
the most popular candidates, and four of those slots held for 
women.  Additional slots beyond the first 12 are allocated 
based on regional and sectoral criteria, he said.  Herzog 
said that so far, Peretz and Labor Party Secretary Eitan 
Cabel are assured top slots as is Labor MK Rabbi Michael 
Melchior.  The party "respects" Melchior, and, since he 
represents the Meimad faction of the Labor Party, Melchior 
will bring additional support to Labor, Herzog said. 
 
7.  (SBU) Commenting on the changing political landscape, 
Herzog said that following Likud's formation in 1973, Likud 
drew much of its strength from blue collar workers, while 
Labor continued to represent the white-collar workers. 
Peretz, he said, is now attracting the blue-collar sector 
back to Labor.  He assessed that the Russian immigrant sector 
will mainly support Sharon, since "they prefer Ashkenazi 
leaders," but said that Labor is making some small inroads 
with the Russians by promoting Labor's egalitarian economic 
policies.  Herzog said that Labor is also trying to prevent 
Kadima from eating into Labor's traditional support from the 
Kibbutz and Moshav sectors.  To keep that support, Herzog 
asserted, Peretz knows that he will need the support of 
former Prime Minister Ehud Barak -- who recently indicated he 
will not run for a Knesset seat. 
 
------------------------- 
Israel/Palestinian Issues 
------------------------- 
 
8.  (SBU) In response to Herzog's inquiry as to what actions 
the USG has taken after the Netanya attack, the Ambassador 
noted that the Secretary had called PA President Mahmud Abbas 
to urge him to take action against terrorism and that A/S 
Welch would be here this week for meetings.  The Ambassador 
said that the PA had made a number of arrests of suspected 
terrorists.  Herzog said that the GOI is promoting what he 
termed a huge project to prevent smuggling of weapons, drugs 
and people across the border with Egypt. 
 
9.  (SBU) Herzog asked the Ambassador whether the USG prefers 
that Israel take unilateral moves or seek agreement with the 
Palestinians with regard to the West Bank and Gaza.  The 
Ambassador responded that unilateral steps such as the 
disengagement plan can help the parties move back to the 
roadmap, but if Sharon wants to define Israel's borders, the 
USG believes the GOI should do so through agreement with the 
Palestinians.  Herzog questioned how long progress on the 
roadmap could be held up while Sharon demands PA action 
against terrorism.  He also questioned whether removal of 
illegal outposts should be conditioned by the GOI on PA 
action against terrorism.  Herzog stressed that Labor wants 
an unconditional uprooting of illegal outposts, but he noted 
that there are always delays.  He cited the example of the 
Almona outpost where the High Court ruled in August that nine 
permanent homes be removed, but the houses are still 
standing. 
 
10.  (SBU) Herzog said that both Labor and Kadima have 
similar peace agendas and he could see the parties forming a 
majority coalition.  He added that Peretz had only ruled out 
joining a coalition led by Likud.  One led by Kadima could be 
a different story. 
 
 
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