US embassy cable - 05NAIROBI5072

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 005072 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/07/2025 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PREL, KDEM, KCOR, ETRD, KE 
SUBJECT: KENYA'S NEW CABINET APPOINTEES AND U.S. INTERESTS 
 
REF: NAIROBI 5070 
 
Classified By: Ambassador William M. Bellamy for reasons 1.4 (b,d) 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY: President Kibaki's new cabinet is a mixed 
bag for U.S. interests in security, corruption, and economic 
policy.  New Foreign Minister Raphael Tuju will be more 
capable than the laterally transferred Ali Mwakwere, but 
given his antagonistic track record, will not necessarily be 
amenable to U.S. interests.  With no change in the security 
bureaucracy, we can expect more of the same -- little or no 
progress on CT cooperation, while the Minister for Justice 
and Constitutional Affairs' has no history with CT 
legislation.  The bright spots in the new cabinet are a new 
appointee at Information and Communications, the retention of 
the Finance Minister, and the possible return of Trade and 
Industry Minister Mukhisa Kituyi (party maneuvers may render 
Kituyi's retention questionable).  END SUMMARY. 
 
MEET THE NEW FOREIGN MINISTER 
----------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Newly appointed Foreign Minister Raphael Tuju's 
public record on the U.S. is uninspiring.  At Post's 2005 
July Fourth reception, the Minister delivered a harsh 
criticism of U.S. policy in Kenya (travel advisory, excluding 
Kenya from the Millennium Challenge Account) and Somalia (as 
one of the developed nations that has "cut and run").  He 
advised against meddling in domestic politics, suggesting 
that perhaps the U.S. was considering "regime change" in 
Kenya.  That said, the handsome, youthful, and articulate 
Tuju will likely make a good interlocutor for foreign 
visitors and resident diplomats alike.  Formerly Information 
and Communication Minister from January 2003, Tuju is known 
as a smooth operator who has been influential in the Kibaki 
government. 
 
3.  (C)  His competence, however, should not obscure Tuju's 
earlier shenanigans at the Ministry of Information and 
Communication.  Tuju repeatedly undermined badly needed 
reforms in Kenya's inefficient telecommunications sector by 
interfering in regulatory processes without any legal 
authority.  When he attempted a year ago to strip a third 
mobile phone company of a new license for which it had 
successfully bid, he was sued, and lost, in court.  Instead 
of relenting, Tuju dismissed the entire board of the telecom 
regulator and put sycophants in place, thus setting back for 
months, if not years, the cause of deeper telecom reform. 
Tuju has never adequately explained such actions, and there 
are credible reports he was acting on behalf of corrupt 
officials in the Office of the President and/or members of 
President Kibaki's family.  The former journalist from Nyanza 
Province did not carry his own constituency in the referendum. 
 
TUJU AND THE REFERENDUM 
----------------------- 
 
4.  (C) Tuju's recent past has kept him anything but obscure. 
 His was the marquee name when violence erupted at an October 
29 pro-draft constitution rally in Kisumu which resulted in 
four deaths.  This came soon after his announcement that he 
would form a new party, the People's Progressive Party (PPP). 
 During the referendum process, Tuju, an ethnic Luo, was 
viewed by many fellow tribesmen as having "betrayed" the 
community with support for the draft constitution, and his 
opposition to top Luo Raila Odinga.  Perhaps already being 
groomed for his new job, Tuju was the sole minister at a 
Banana briefing for diplomats prior to the referendum, during 
which he reassured donors that any suggestions that foreign 
missions were supporting the "No" campaign did not constitute 
official Government of Kenya policy.  In his role as 
Information Minister, Tuju was at the center of controversial 
radio station shut-downs, following his public remarks 
warning the media not to incite Kenyans to violence. 
 
SECURITY, CORRUPTION, AND THE CONSTITUTION 
------------------------------------------ 
 
5.  (C) There is no change at the helm of Kenya's security 
bureaucracy, not a good sign for much awaited progress on 
stepping up CT cooperation.  John Michuki will remain the 
Minister for Provincial Administration and National Security, 
while his deputies, Assistant Minister Mirugi Kariuki and 
Permanent Secretary Cyrus Gituai also keep their desks. 
Another Central Province Kikuyu and the father of six U.S. 
-educated children, the Minister is a close associate of 
President Kibaki.  While Michuki has a long standing 
relationship with the U.S. Embassy and is well-intentioned, 
he has been unable to accomplish much during his nearly one 
year in office.  This is opposed to Gituai who, as our most 
direct interlocutor on CT issues, has been generally 
uncooperative. 
 
6.  (C) Justice and Constitutional Affairs Minister Martha 
Karua, only one of two women in the new lineup, is an ethnic 
Kikuyu notable for being deeply partisan, which does not bode 
well for reconciliation and constitutional review.  The 
matter of a new constitution, a major function of Karua's 
office, is still of paramount importance to Kenyans, despite 
Kibaki's effort to shift focus to the development agenda. 
Karua's attitude toward issues of U.S. interest is little 
known given her previous post as Water Minister, where she 
garnered praise for competent, reform-oriented 
administration.  Given her ministry's role in forming 
counterterrorism and money laundering legislation, the extent 
to which she is willing to be cooperative and proactive will 
dictate the pace of progress we can make.  A 1991 participant 
in the I.V. program, Karua was a highly visible pro-draft 
campaigner during the referendum and is known as a stubborn 
politician.  Her move up to the Justice Ministry is likely a 
reward for her forceful, thoughtful promotion of the draft. 
 
7.  (C) The appointment of Mutahi Kagwe as Minister of 
Information and Communications is a positive sign.  Over the 
past two weeks, in discussions with contacts on which new 
players could make a positive contribution to a reform-minded 
cabinet, Kagwe's name invariably came up.  Michuki's 
son-in-law, he is widely viewed as smart, knowledgeable and 
private-sector-oriented, and earned plaudits as the chair of 
the parliament's important Finance Committee.  Kagwe was 
often mentioned as a strong contender for Trade Minister, and 
appears to be a good choice for leading much-needed reforms 
in Kenya's telecommunications sector.  A key player in the 
constitutional reform process, the Minister has also been 
vocal on the issues of national security and corruption. 
Kagwe, who completed a three month fellowship in the U.S. in 
2003, is a positive addition as a much-needed breath of clean 
(read: non-corrupt) air in the cabinet, and was the only 
Banana MP to attend breakfast with diplomats days after the 
referendum. 
 
ECONOMIC POLICYMAKERS: THE BRIGHT SPOT 
-------------------------------------- 
 
8.  (C) There is some good news in the new cabinet.  In terms 
of economic policymaking, Kibaki chose to maintain continuity 
at two key ministries, Finance, where David Mwiraria was 
retained, and Trade and Industry, where Mukhisa Kituyi stays 
on, at least for now.  (NOTE: His party, FORD-K, has 
announced its members will not accept cabinet appointments. 
Kituyi's personal stance on whether to stay or go is not yet 
known).  Kituyi's retention is particularly important in the 
context of the WTO Doha Round Ministerial beginning in Hong 
Kong next week.  Kituyi has long enjoyed a reputation for 
intellectual savvy and effectiveness far exceeding most 
cabinet peers, and he has played an instrumental and 
constructive role in the Doha Round negotiations, bringing on 
board African members of the WTO on difficult issues such as 
agriculture.   Mwiraria is a tougher nut to crack. On the one 
hand, he has been implicated (but cleared by the Kenya 
Anti-Corruption Commission) in the infamous Anglo-Leasing 
scandals, and many observers strongly suspect he is an 
accomplice in several other similar grand scale procurement 
scams.  On the other hand, while hardly a visionary, he has 
assembled an effective and reform-minded team of technocrats 
at Finance which is leading the way on a number of critical 
reforms throughout government.  His retention - assuming he 
also keeps this team intact - will thus bring sighs of relief 
from the donor community. 
BELLAMY