US embassy cable - 05SANSALVADOR3431

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 SAN SALVADOR 003431 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/PDA-RQUIROZ, WHA/CEN-PDEGLER, R 
 
E.O.: 12958:N/A 
TAGS: KPAO, OIIP, PREL, ES 
SUBJECT: 2005 INFLUENCE ANALYSIS: EL SALVADOR 
 
REFERENCE: A) 04 SAN SALVADOR 00943; B) 04 SECSTATE 33359 
 
1. SUMMARY: Given its relatively small size (6.7 million 
people in an area smaller than New Jersey), El Salvador 
has a relatively rich media environment and a fairly well- 
defined number of "players" jockeying for power and 
influence.  Though their combined circulation is scarcely 
300,000, newspapers may be considered the most influential 
of the media.  Internet and cable television access 
largely remains concentrated in the hands of educated 
urban dwellers, though the GOES is making a long-term 
effort to bring the Internet to all schools, and Internet- 
ready "info centros" are available throughout the country. 
While broadcast media reaches the largest number of people 
on a regular basis, print media and a variety of 
individuals and institutions - including churches, 
political parties, the business community, academia, civil 
society, overseas Salvadorans, and the U.S. Embassy - 
wield considerable clout, with the degree of influence of 
each depending on the issue involved.  END SUMMARY. 
 
THE MEDIA ENVIRONMENT 
 
2. The media in El Salvador are relatively free, very 
competitive, and highly influential.  News coverage is 
generally balanced, and opposing opinions are presented. The 
country's five national daily newspapers and six nationwide 
free-to-air television stations subscribe to and monitor the 
international wire services and also run regular news 
segments from CNN, CNN Espaol, Univision and Telemundo, all 
of which have "stringers" in El Salvador.  Their programming 
and that of other U.S. and international stations are also 
available via local cable television providers.  El Salvador 
also has at least 150 radio stations and a variety of 
magazines, though none like "Time" or "Newsweek."  Many 
internationally-minded Salvadorans - those in the business 
world in particular -- are also exposed to U.S. news and 
ideas through their subscriptions to U.S. magazines and to 
publications like the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) or the New 
York Times (NYT). El Salvador's two largest dailies (La 
Prensa Grafica and El Diario de Hoy - see para 3) have 
agreements with both the WSJ and the NYT that allows them to 
publish regularly Spanish versions of certain articles and 
op-eds. 
 
3. Annual surveys confirm television as the dominant news 
source for Salvadorans, surpassing radio by a small margin 
and newspapers by a much wider one.  Nevertheless, radio 
remains the most demographically diverse info-entertainment 
medium in El Salvador and the one that is most constantly 
heard throughout any given day by listeners in their cars, 
offices, or homes. Among the most important stations with 
nationwide reach are Radio Cadena YSKL, YSUCA and the Radio 
Association "ARPAS" network (leftist), and Radio La Chevere 
(part of Grupo Samix which is owned by President Saca's 
family). Both the free-to-air television channels and many 
popular radio stations feature news commentary on morning 
talk shows that are hosted by well-known journalists. 
 
4.  By far the two most influential Salvadoran newspapers 
are the major dailies, La Prensa Grafica and El Diario de 
Hoy.  Both have circulations of about 100,000, and each has 
a well-developed web site.  Both are owned and operated by 
politically conservative families who have direct lines of 
communication with the Presidential Palace.  La Prensa 
Grafica's editorial tone is generally centrist and sometimes 
critical of the government, while El Diario de Hoy's is more 
openly conservative and is considered the nationalistic 
voice of the elite "old guard."  But together with the other 
three national dailies (conservative El Mundo, leftist Co- 
Latino, and sensationalist Mas!), the print media's 
influence is much greater than the circulation figures would 
suggest.  Newspapers are closely read by the educated elite 
in government, business, and civil society, and carry 
regular features from American and European (principally 
Spanish) journals.  It is also the print media that "break" 
the big news stories that broadcast media then cover.  Op- 
eds in the major papers are also an effective and direct 
method of conveying messages to Salvador's elite and, 
through them, to the Salvadoran public. Reflective of the 
broad reach of newspapers is the fact that organizations and 
private citizens frequently purchase advertising space 
("campos pagados") in order to communicate their views on 
specific issues to the general public. 
 
5.  Both print and broadcast media depend heavily on 
advertising dollars, print because circulation is relatively 
low and broadcast because most entertainment content must be 
bought from overseas suppliers.  As a result, not only will 
media offer space and airtime to whomever can pay, media are 
also generally reluctant to report too aggressively on the 
news in a way that could offend their advertisers (including 
the government). 
INFLUENCE OF PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS AND OFFICIALS 
 
6.  Members of the Cabinet and heads of various government 
agencies frequently talk to the media and wield influence, 
at least among the educated elite, in their areas of 
responsibility.  With the general public, their popularity 
varies according to their perceived success or lack thereof. 
For example, recent polls have shown that the Ministers of 
Economy and Labor have the lowest public approval ratings 
due to low economic growth coupled with high unemployment 
and underemployment.  The judiciary in particular suffers 
from a lack of public trust and credibility and is thus an 
important target for reform efforts.  Many institutions in 
all three branches of government are perceived as 
unresponsive to social concerns such as access to potable 
water, affordable electricity, and decent health care; 
public trust of the institutions seems to have a positive 
correlation with trust of the individuals who head them. 
7.  The 84 members of the national Legislative Assembly and 
the mayors of El Salvador's 262 municipalities are also 
highly influential with the general public, as are the 
political parties.  After the March 21, 2004 election, only 
the ruling Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA) and the 
Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN) had 
garnered sufficient votes to ensure their continued 
existence.  Since then, however, court decisions have kept 
the National Conciliation Party (PCN), the Christian 
Democratic Party (PDC), and the Democratic Center Party (CD) 
in existence; meanwhile, the FMLN itself has been beset by a 
series of defections that drained it of leaders as well as 
rank-and-file members, many of whom have joined a more 
moderate splinter party, the Revolutionary Democratic Front 
(FDR). Mayors and Legislative Assembly members, or 
"diputados," are important target audiences to be approached 
both directly and indirectly in pursuit of MPP goals, 
including through NGOs or influential associations such as 
the Corporation of Salvadoran Municipalities (COMURES). 
Salvadoran political parties are influential because they 
control the agenda of the Legislative Assembly and because 
they have numerous loyal members among Salvadorans of voting 
age.  While ruling party ARENA has great influence over the 
priorities of the national administration, FMLN or former 
FMLN mayors run El Salvador's capital and major cities, and 
FMLN mayors most often appear in the media. ARENA hopes to 
win more seats in the National Assembly and to capture 
control of more city halls in the elections scheduled for 
March, 2006; so far, polls indicate that ARENA's prospects 
look good. 
 
CIVIL SOCIETY 
 
8. The Catholic Church, mainline Protestant and evangelical 
churches, and social-activism NGOs, some of whom are closely 
allied with the Office of the Human Rights Ombudsman (PDDH), 
are highly influential.  Left-leaning groups that had 
expressed opposition to CAFTA-DR include El Salvador's few 
labor unions, certain humanitarian service NGOs, economic 
development think-tank FUNDE, and political NGOs such as the 
Center for Solidarity and Exchange (CIS by its Spanish 
initials).  Leftist daily newspaper Co-Latino and radio 
stations such as YSUCA, Maya Vision, Radio Farabundo Marti, 
and Radio Venceremos (the voice of the FMLN in the war 
years) are the primary media for these groups.  A few 
universities such as the Universidad Centroamericana Jose 
Simeon Canas (UCA), the Universidad de El Salvador (National 
University, or UES) and the Universidad Tecnologica wield 
influence that is probably enhanced by their public opinion 
polling capability. 
 
9.  Close ties between the government and the formal private 
sector (which falls, politically, between center-right and 
conservative) give the business community good access to 
senior government officials and a high degree of influence 
over government decisions.  The free-market, free-trade 
agendas of various private-sector associations are reported 
regularly in the mainstream media and carry weight within 
the Salvadoran government and Legislative Assembly.  These 
groups include the leading economic and social think-tank 
FUSADES, the National Private Enterprise Association (ANEP), 
associations of small and medium-sized businesses and 
exporters such as COEXPORT and FUNDAMYPE, and the Chambers 
of Commerce (including the American Chamber of Commerce), 
industry associations, and large conglomerates and their 
owners.  Senior members of these organizations have 
sometimes gone on to hold political office; for example, 
President Saca himself used to be the President of ANEP. 
 
OTHERS WHO WIELD INFLUENCE 
 
10.  Other persons of influence are those who regularly 
write newspaper columns and op-ed pieces and/or are 
interviewed in newspapers and on television news talk shows 
on the day's most pressing issues.  They include Peace 
Accord negotiator and university rector David Escobar 
Gallindo, former Ambassador to the United States Ernesto 
Rivas Gallont, FUNDE head Roberto Rubio Fabian (see para 7), 
Economist Rafael Castellanos, and FMLN guerilla leader- 
turned FMLN-critic Joaqun Villalobos.  Professionals such 
as doctors, lawyers, engineers, and professors are also 
widely respected and trusted. 
 
11. One cannot discount the influence of the two million 
Salvadorans living overseas nor of the hometown associations 
and lobbying groups they have formed.  In part because of 
the remittance dollars they represent, these groups are 
highly influential.  They tend to have political 
orientations that encompass a wide range of views, but are 
strongly pro-immigrant.  Many groups have sought voting 
rights in Salvadoran elections (not allowed under the 
current constitution) and therewith a more direct influence 
on politics, but as yet they are only indirectly influential 
in both the United States and El Salvador. 
 
12. Finally, there is the rumor mill, kept active by close- 
knit networks of families, friends, school classmates, and 
other social circles.  For example, regarding visas, many 
potential or actual applicants seem to trust the word of 
migration-assistance NGOs, less-scrupulous attorneys and 
"advisors," and their circles of family and friends more 
than they trust official information coming from the U.S. 
Consulate.  (This is, however, beginning to change as PAS 
and the Consular Section have mounted a massive public 
outreach effort across radio, TV and print media as well as 
in Internet chat rooms; see para 17.) 
 
INFLUENCE ANALYSIS BY MPP GOAL 
 
13.  Economic Growth and Development, Trade and Investment: 
Stimulating growth, jobs, and investment is a top concern 
for both the GOES and the Mission.  Though public opinion 
polls show many Salvadorans are skeptical about the short- 
term benefits of adhering to what has come to be known as 
the Washington Consensus, they also show that, ultimately, 
Salvadorans believe open markets and free trade are the only 
ways their country can develop.  ARENA's decisive victory in 
the March 21, 2004 presidential election and subsequent 
polls that give President Saca positive ratings in the 70th 
percentile indicate that stimulating growth, jobs, and 
investment is a top public concern, as is maintaining good 
relations with the United States in order to achieve those 
goals.  In this environment, the views of pro-business 
governmental and nongovernmental institutions and those of 
prominent members of the business sector carry lots of 
weight.  Though there was opposition expressed by some of 
the groups mentioned in para 7, pro-CAFTA forces won the 
day, making El Salvador the first CAFTA-DR country to ratify 
the agreement, in December 2004. 
 
14.  Democratic Systems and Practices:  In order to promote 
reform of El Salvador's public institutions, decrease 
corruption, and thereby increase public faith in and support 
for democratic institutions, the Embassy continues to 
provide information, financial support, and exchange 
opportunities to local academic, media and civic 
organizations working to shape policy and/or promote 
participation in democratic processes.  Some helpful 
strategies include supporting NGO activities such as the PAS 
and INL-funded Culture of Lawfulness program, and using 
USAID funds to finance programs aimed at reforming the 
judiciary, promoting transparency, and seeking/incorporating 
citizen input into decision-making. 
 
15.  Law Enforcement and Judicial Systems:  In order to 
build public understanding of the related threats from 
terrorism, narcotics trafficking, and other crime, and to 
increase support for combating them, the Mission is working 
with the judicial sector to strengthen criminal statutes 
against conspiracy and alien smuggling, and with the 
recently-formed GOES anti-gang commission to reduce gang 
membership and violent crime related to gangs.  Our 
educational exchanges and INL programs, especially those 
working directly with the police and municipal governments, 
are conduits to share U.S. best-practices, and to provide 
material support for anti-crime measures, drug abuse 
prevention, and treatment programs. 
 
16.  In April 2005, the State Department decided to seek 
agreement with El Salvador to establish an International Law 
Enforcement Academy (ILEA) in El Salvador.  Post correctly 
anticipated opposition from the FMLN and others, who charged 
the ILEA would be a new "School of the Americas" training 
police in torture tactics.  Groups of Embassy officers and 
interagency ILEA representatives met with the FMLN and 
judicial-issues NGOs to address their concerns, and invited 
them to observe ILEA-type training taking place in El 
Salvador.  Opposing voices continue to be heard from time to 
time, but they seem confined to the nongovernmental 
Federation for Legal Studies (FESPAD) and the much- 
splintered FMLN. 
 
17. To curb illegal migration yet facilitate legal travel to 
the U.S., the Mission is actively increasing public 
understanding of the U.S. visa process and the dangers of 
illegal immigration through public meetings, interviews and 
press briefings and through regular communication with the 
Directorate of Migration and the Foreign Ministry. 
Representatives from the Consular Section and the Department 
of Homeland Security (DHS) appear almost weekly on radio and 
television, and hold regular sessions with NGOs and GOES 
agencies dealing with migration, including the National 
Civilian Police (PNC), the Salvadoran immigration service, 
and various adoption services.  Post also shows "message" 
videos in consular waiting areas.  The fact that El Salvador 
depends on the nearly $3 billion in remittances it receives 
annually (equal to about 14 percent of its GDP) hinders 
these efforts, as do very real hopes of greater economic 
opportunity and reunification with family members in the 
United States.  While it is difficult to change the cost- 
benefit calculation in the minds of individual intending 
immigrants, GOES officials and newspaper editors have 
recently shown less of a tendency to turn a blind eye toward 
unlimited emigration, while paying more attention toward 
some of the adverse effects of family disintegration and 
even the massive inflow of remittances. 
 
18.  Close Ties with Neighbors and Key Allies: Along with El 
Salvador's support in international fora on issues such as 
free trade and democracy and its leadership in regional 
integration efforts, El Salvador's contribution of five six- 
month rotations of 360 troops each to the Coalition effort 
in Iraq is a policy the Saca Administration has continued, 
despite polls showing the majority of the public opposed. 
Continued close military relationships are key to this 
effort, given the high public credibility of the armed 
forces and their commitment to remaining out of politics. 
The Mission will also continue our multiple collaborations 
with the Salvadoran armed forces, using IMET and FMF funding 
for training and supplies/repairs, and organizing public 
events showing our appreciation for Salvadoran collaboration 
in international peacekeeping efforts. 
 
19.  COMMENT:  Since Post first composed an Influence 
Analysis cable in March 2004 (reftel A), three more 
rotations of Salvadoran soldiers have served in Iraq, CAFTA 
has been ratified, and El Salvador has continued to be one 
of our closest allies in the Hemisphere.  Recent newspaper 
commentary suggests, however, that influential circles 
believe El Salvador ought to be getting more from the United 
States - greater immigration benefits, more development 
assistance, increased aid in the aftermath of the 
devastation of Hurricane Stan in October, greater 
understanding about the difficulties of accepting Salvadoran 
criminals deported from the U.S., and so on.  Post will 
continue to seek opportunities to emphasize the long-term 
commitment of the United States to El Salvador over many 
years, and on the part of many agencies: USAID, the Peace 
Corps, the U.S. military, the Department of State, and more. 
 
BARCLAY