US embassy cable - 02ABUJA3303

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 003303 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PREL, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA:  NOVEMBER 25 "FRIENDS GROUP" MEETING 
 
 
REF: A. ABUJA 2831 
     B. ABUJA 3033 
 
 
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter.  Reasons 1.5 (B & 
D). 
 
 
1. (C)  SUMMARY:  Ambassador Jeter hosted the third meeting 
of Chiefs of Mission of Germany, France, Canada, and the 
U.K. Deputy High Commissioner on November 25 to discuss 
upcoming Nigerian elections.  The November 25 meeting 
concentrated on the need for uniform standards by which to 
judge Nigeria's 2003 elections, local elections monitors, 
international observers, and the need for a political party 
Code of Conduct.  The group agreed to a list of actions to 
be taken by mid-December in order to move the electoral 
process forward.  End Summary. 
 
 
2.  (C)  Ambassador Jeter invited the Chiefs of Mission of 
Germany, France, Canada and the U.K. to continue 
discussions (reftels) November 25.  The group identified 
four important issues to address: 
 
 
--  international observers; 
 
 
--  support for local NGOs' observation efforts; 
 
 
--  a political "Code of Conduct;" and 
 
 
--  INEC's continued logistical shortcomings. 
 
 
3.  (C)  The group began by discussing acceptable 
parameters for Nigeria's 2003 election.  Ambassador Jeter 
commented that the most important issue was acceptance by 
the Nigerian electorate, although the international 
community should continue to push for an improvement on the 
1999 elections performance.  German Ambassador Dietmar 
Kreusel said that the European Union (EU) Heads of Mission 
in Abuja are preparing a report on the status of elections 
preparation and prospects for a successful exercise, which 
he promised to share with the "Friends Group" when 
completed.  He then noted that the EU saw little prospect 
for free and fair elections, so finding acceptable 
alternative criteria would be important.  (COMMENT:  There 
was general agreement that a strict "free and fair" test 
would doom Nigeria to failure.  An agreed defensible 
alternative test that Nigeria might reasonably be expected 
to pass could not be formulated during the meeting.  The 
U.K. held out for 1999 or better, a criterion most others 
questioned Nigeria's likelihood of satisfying.  END 
COMMENT.) 
 
 
4.  (C)  Turning to the issue of elections monitors, the 
group reported some confusion on the Nigerian side about 
the process by which the international community would be 
allowed to monitor elections.  While officials in the 
Presidency and INEC indicated support for the idea, no 
entity clearly had the lead.  Ambassador Jeter reported 
that MFA was acutely reticent to step in before holding 
discussions with INEC and knowing such fundamentals as 
timing, elections sequencing, etc.  The MFA has noted the 
"sensitivity" of the 2003 elections, and the need for 
Nigerians to work out the modalities for the way forward. 
Kreusel said that an EU team had been told the GON "would 
categorically not" issue invitations, but will entertain 
"requests for permission" to observe.  He warned that it 
would be logistically impossible to mobilize the 
approximately 100 EU observers on short notice.  British 
Deputy High Commissioner Charles Bird said he had been told 
that the "State Security Service needs to approve all 
observers" so a list of candidates should be submitted in 
time for the appropriate security checks.  The group 
discussed the merits of accrediting local diplomats as 
official observers, and tentatively agreed that arguments 
for and against this practice suggested a combined 
approach.  They suggested that some diplomats might be 
accredited, while others should observe elections merely as 
diplomats accredited to Nigeria. 
 
 
5.  (C)  Ambassador Jeter recommended coordinating 
international support to domestic monitoring groups, 
pointing to USAID support for the TMG in the 1999 elections 
as a model.  Bird said that, from the British perspective, 
TMG lacked the capabilities it had in 1999.  All agreed on 
the need to support local monitors and on the importance of 
identifying credible groups.  They also agreed that most of 
the current groups involved in the monitoring process were 
dominated by southerners and highlighted the importance of 
recruiting northern NGOs to participate in 2003. 
 
 
6.  (C)  Ambassador Jeter stressed the importance of 
convincing INEC and the political parties to adopt a "Code 
of Conduct" for elections activities.  The other members of 
the group asked for copies of the INEC-produced draft from 
earlier in 2002.  This issue will be taken up at the next 
meeting of the Friends Group, with discussion of how a 
credible and workable Code can be achieved. 
7.  (C)  Canadian High Commissioner Howard Strauss said 
that the flawed registration process appeared no closer to 
resolution.  Bird maintained that INEC Chairman Dr. Abel 
Guobadia was put in place "to deliver Obasanjo;" thus, INEC 
instinctively opposed observers or any type of electoral 
support that would interfere with ensuring Obasanjo's 
reelection.  He warned that by investing in INEC, the 
international community could be put in the position of 
validating a flawed process.  The group agreed that INEC 
had yet to provide enough information to evaluate its 
chances of (or interest in) success. 
 
 
8.  (C)  The group reached consensus on four specific 
actions: 
 
 
--  send diplomatic notes individually to MFA and the 
Presidency requesting information about the guidelines for 
observer accreditation; 
--  identify potential northern groups to serve as 
elections monitors; 
 
 
--  push INEC and the parties to adopt a "Code of Conduct;" 
and 
 
 
--  maintain pressure on INEC, individually and 
collectively, to respond to concerns arising from the 
flawed registration process and INEC's lack of progress in 
preparing for credible elections. 
 
 
9.  (U)  The "Friends Group" will meet again following the 
upcoming holidays. 
JETER