US embassy cable - 05SANJOSE2794

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Identifier:	05SANJOSE2794
Wikileaks:	View 05SANJOSE2794 at Wikileaks.org
Origin:	Embassy San Jose
Created:	2005-12-07 19:43:00
Classification:	UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Tags:	EINV KIDE PGOV CS
Redacted:	This cable was not redacted by Wikileaks.

UNCLAS SAN JOSE 002794 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
WHA/CEN 
EB FOR WCRAFT, BLAMPRON 
E FOR DEDWARDS 
WHA/EPSC FOR KURS, LGUMBINER 
STATE PASS TO USTR FOR AMALITO 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EINV, KIDE, PGOV, CS 
SUBJECT: CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IN COSTA RICA REACHES NEW LOW 
 
 
REF:  SAN JOSE 02731 
 
1.  (U) Summary: According to the results of a November 
survey conducted by the University of Costa Rica's (UCR) 
School of Statistics, consumer confidence in Costa Rica has 
reached a new low.  With a four point margin of error the 
study reveals that 75% of consumers think that the 
government is doing dismally in combating inflation, 
unemployment and poverty.  End Summary 
 
2.  (U) The UCR School of Statistics conducts a consumer 
confidence survey twice a year, March and September. 
According to this poll 
http://www.odd.ucr.ac.cr/documentos/informe_i cc_nov05.pdf 
the number of respondents who believe they and their 
families are better off than a year ago has reached a new 
low.   The following shows the trend over the last eight 
surveys to this question: 
 
Can you tell me if economically you and your family are 
better or worse off than a year ago? 
 
                                 Don't    Number of 
         Better  Equal   Worse   Know    Interviews 
 
Sep-02    22.8    35.9    40.3    0.9        632 
Mar-03    25.5    42.5    31.2    0.8        866 
Sep-03    21.7    36.8    40.5    1.0        807 
Mar-04    22.9    36.0    40.6    0.5        812 
Sep-04    13.7    28.3    57.5    0.5        802 
Mar-05    19.7    34.2    45.9    0.2        808 
Aug-05    17.7    29.4    52.6    0.3        700 
Nov-05    11.8    31.6    56.4    0.2        608 
 
3.  (U) According to another question in the survey, 65% 
believed that interest rates would continue to rise; 75% 
believe that the government has done little in the way of 
programs to alleviate inflation, unemployment and poverty 
and perceive that all have, in fact, worsened.  Some 76% of 
the respondents indicated that they would be unwilling to 
replace their current vehicles and 58% said this is a bad 
time to consider buying a home. 
 
4.  (U) More that half (66%) said they believed that the 
country is experiencing a period of economic and political 
crisis and 46% see that they are worse off this year 
financially as prices have risen and they can see that they 
have lost buying power due to the over 14 percent inflation 
rate. 
 
5.  (SBU) Comment: The results of this poll of consumer 
confidence parallel the pessimism reflected in a recent 
survey of investor confidence (reported reftel and contained 
in 
http://www.bccr.fi.cr/ndie/Documentos/Informe %20Encuesta%20I 
II-05.pdf).  Both recorded the most pessimistic views since 
President Pacheco took office in May 2002.  The fact that 
both consumers and investors have such a pessimistic view of 
the current situation will affect the February 5 
presidential and legislative elections. 
LANGDALE