US embassy cable - 05MEXICO7321

C O N F I D E N T I A L  MEXICO 007321 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/06/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, MX 
SUBJECT: CALDERON'S CAMPAIGN TAKES SHAPE 
 
REF: A. MEXICO 7074 
     B. MEXICO 7251 
     C. MEXICO 6976 
 
Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Leslie A. Bassett Reasons: 
 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (U) Summary:  Coming off his victory in the PAN primary, 
Felipe Calderon has been enjoying good times.  He officially 
became the PAN's candidate in a ceremony conducted December 
4.  Recent polls show his numbers rising as those the PRD's 
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) and the PRI's Roberto 
Madrazo's are falling.  Calderon, who until recently enjoyed 
little name recognition outside the PAN, has also been 
showing to advantage in public appearances.  The PAN 
leadership has meanwhile continued to refine its campaign 
machinery,  establishing a nine-member "classified" committee 
to handle all campaign related issues, including promoting 
Calderon's message.  Reported tensions exist between Team 
Calderon and the PAN party structure, with some claiming 
party President Manuel Espino fumbled coalition negotiations 
with the "Green" (PVEM) party.  But increasingly pundits and 
pollsters are bullish on Calderon.  End summary. 
 
Upward Swing in the Polls 
------------------------- 
 
2. (U) Although polls released over the last several weeks 
vary, one trend remains the same:  Calderon's numbers are on 
the rise while AMLO and Madrazo's numbers are falling.  A 
recent poll in the daily El Universal showed AMLO with 40 
percent of the vote, Calderon with 31 percent and Madrazo 21 
percent.  Shortly before that, the daily Reforma published a 
poll in which AMLO was given 29 percent, Calderon 28 percent, 
and Madrazo 21 percent.  AMLO strongly objected to this poll, 
accusing Reforma of doctoring their numbers in order to give 
Calderon's campaign a boost.  Calderon responded by 
challenging AMLO to define the methodology or polling company 
that the public should find credible, and by accusing AMLO of 
discounting any poll that showed his decline. 
 
3. (U) Calderon has also made the most of several recent 
public appearances such as his interview on Televisa's 
"Dialogues for Mexico" and his speeches at the Mexican stock 
exchange (ref a) and American Chamber of Commerce (ref b). 
During these appearances, he presented his platform clearly 
and succinctly, demonstrated a command of economic and social 
issues, and appeared at ease while giving specific answers to 
the questions asked.  Calderon continues to work the business 
circuit assiduously, speaking before the pharmaceutical 
industry the first week in December. 
 
Calderon's Message 
------------------ 
 
4. (U) Calderon's message is three-pronged.  First, Calderon 
emphasizes that a vote for the PRD or the PRI is a step 
backwards to the old ways of corrupt politics.  Next, he 
praises the Fox administration's accomplishments, 
highlighting that Mexico is better off today than it was in 
2000, but indicates that there is more to be done.  (Note: 
Many thought Calderon would distance himself from the Fox 
administration in which he served briefly as Energy 
Secretary, but instead he consistently praises the 
administration for improving healthcare and combating poverty 
and recently invited the press to a breakfast he had with 
Fox.  Calderon perhaps has an eye on recent polls that show 
Mexicans continue to have a remarkably positive view of Fox 
the man, whatever they may think about the effectiveness of 
his administration.  End note.)  And finally, Calderon 
promises that the PAN will work towards a more competitive 
and prosperous Mexico. 
 
Classified Committee 
-------------------- 
 
5. (C) While the PAN publicly continues to refer to its 
political committee as a decision-making body for the 
campaign, PAN officials tell us otherwise.  The PAN 
leadership recently established a "classified" committee to 
handle all campaign-related issues.  Despite Fox's recent 
public injunctions to his administration to stay out of the 
race, the committee consists of three members of the current 
Fox administration, three members of Calderon's campaign 
team, and three party representatives.  The nine members are: 
Secretary of Social Development Josefina Vasquez Mota, head 
of the President's Public Policy Office Eduardo Sojo, head of 
the President's Office for Government Innovation Ramon Munoz, 
Calderon Campaign Coordinator Juan Camilo Mourino, PAN 
National Council and National Executive Committee member 
Gerardo Ruiz Mateos, PAN Deputy Juan Molinar, PAN Secretary 
of Elections Arturo Garcia Portillo, PAN Sonora Senator 
Hector Larios, and Baja California Governor Eugenio Elorduy. 
The secretive nature of the committee may stem from President 
Fox's reluctance to have more cabinet resignations in his 
term.  It may also reflect uneasiness within the Calderon 
camp about PAN leadership.  Press reports, for example, 
suggest the Calderon camp believes PAN President Espino 
bungled coalition negotiations with the PVEM, which ended up 
aligning with the PRI after Espino said publicly the PVEM 
wasn't worth its asking price. 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
6. (C) Calderon, the unexpected PAN candidate, is clearly 
getting a bounce in the polls from his successful primary 
election, his impressive early appearances as the official 
candidate, and a high-profile formal campaign launch last 
weekend.  Pollsters suggest his higher favorables primarily 
reflect hard-line PAN voters who couldn't get behind failed 
candidate Santiago Creel.  His challenge remains to energize 
the PAN political structure, sway currently uncommitted 
voters to turn out to vote for him, and position himself 
favorably against his two competitors.  There's still a long 
way to go. 
 
 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity 
 
GARZA