US embassy cable - 05BANGKOK7529

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 007529 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/07/2020 
TAGS: ETRD, PGOV, PHUM, PTER, TH, BURMA, CIA Secret Prisons, Southern Thailand 
SUBJECT: LUNCH WITH THAKSIN 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR RALPH BOYCE.  REASON: 1.4(D) 
 
 1.  (S)  Summary:  During lunch at the residence on December 
7, Prime Minister Thaksin and I discussed the King's recent 
birthday speech, the situation in Thailand's south, the issue 
of extrajudicial killings, Thai-Malaysian relations, Burma 
policy, North Korea, the US-Thai Action Plan, Thailand's 
third quarter GDP spurt, and the return of former Prime 
Minister Chavalit Yongchaiyut.  Thaksin told me that he 
enjoys a uniformly good relationship with the King.  He 
denied any plans by the RTG to allow targeted killings of 
suspected militants in the south and understood my admonition 
over the damage to Thai-U.S. relations if any Thai officials 
perpetrated any summary killings.  Thaksin claimed that the 
situation in the south is gradually improving.  He expects 
some of the 131 Thai Muslims who fled to Malaysia to return 
now that UMNO has won the by-election in Kelantan.  On Burma, 
Thaksin acknowledged the lack of any positive measures by the 
SPDC.  I thanked him for the encouraging movement made by the 
Thais at the London FTA round and elicited his firm assurance 
that Thailand will refurbish its fleet of F-16's in lieu of 
purchasing new Russian SU-30s.  End Summary. 
 
HAPPY WITH KING'S TREATMENT AND HIS RELATIONS WITH THE PALACE 
 
2.  (C)  Prime Minister Thaksin came to the residence on 
December 7 flush from what he considered a boost from the 
King's birthday speech several days earlier.  Thaksin said 
there were no unpleasant surprises in the speech and noted 
that the King had previewed the speech to him on November 21. 
 The King counseled him not to be hot headed in response to 
his critics.  Thaksin replied that as he grew closer to age 
60 he would mellow.  According to Thaksin, the King's 
frequent anecdotes during the December 4 speech referring to 
the Prime Minister had the quality of inside jokes that he 
and Thaksin shared.  Thaksin noted that he had dropped his 
lawsuits against fervent critic Sondhi Limthongkul.  I asked 
him if this had taken the wind out of Sondhi's sails. 
Thaksin thought so, saying that the Bangkok elite may be 
easily duped by a "crook" like Sondhi, but "not for long." 
He said that he was not the least concerned about Sondhi's 
next rally on December 9 and ridiculed his claim that half a 
million Thais would turn out. 
 
3.  (S)  Thaksin expressed satisfaction over what he termed a 
uniformly good relationship with the Palace.  He related to 
me that when he called on the King following his massive 377 
seat win last February, he intimated that it would be his 
last term.  "What, you will leave me alone?" Thaksin said the 
King replied.  The Queen also urged that Thaksin see the King 
regularly, citing his ability to cheer up His Majesty. 
Thaksin agreed that the King's chief motivation these days is 
the preservation of the status of the monarchy.  He referred 
humorously to the first time he attended the King's birthday 
speech as Prime Minister.  The King at that time made 
critical comments about him.  While he visibly cringed, 
Khunying Potjaman (Thaksin's wife) dug him in the ribs with 
her elbow. The King told him later that he was lucky to have 
a Khun Potjaman to candidly advise him as well as encourage 
him.  When I asked Thaksin if the Queen was His Majesty's 
"Khun Potjaman," he said emphatically no.  The Palace clearly 
has two camps, with fundamentally different DNA in each. 
 
SAYS SOUTH IMPROVING 
 
4.  (C)  Thaksin expressed satisfaction with the job new RTA 
Commander General Sondhi is doing in the south.  In the past, 
soldiers had simply put in their time, avoiding engagements. 
General Sondhi is more aggressive and proactive.  Thaksin 
added that his own reception was better among southerners in 
his most recent visits and that he felt that the government's 
efforts to direct more budget and more jobs programs to the 
region was bearing fruit.  I told him that we had heard 
disquieting rumors that lists of suspected militants had been 
drawn up by authorities -- to be targeted for extrajudicial 
killing.  The Prime Minister emphatically denied this, saying 
that lists of suspects had been drawn up but for publication 
in order to bring them in for processing by authorities. 
Those accused and convicted of offenses would face jail 
through the legal process.  Those who had basically been in 
the wrong company would undergo "rehabilitation." 
 
5.  (C)  I responded that I would inform Washington of his 
reassurances, but strongly cautioned he needed to monitor 
this situation closely.  If any official took it upon himself 
to "unilaterally" commit an extrajudicial execution, even in 
the face of official RTG policy to the contrary, we would 
nevertheless immediately cut off ties with that unit and 
there would be a risk of serious damage to our bilateral 
relations, and to Thaksin's personal reputation.  Thaksin 
said that he understood and repeated that there were no death 
lists.  I repeated that even in the absence of a policy of 
targeted killings an individual act would have serious 
repercussions. 
 
MALAYSIA AND THE SOUTH 
 
6.  (C)  Thaksin said that he has always enjoyed good 
relations with former Prime Minister Mahathir.  They had good 
talks during Mahathir's visit last month.  Badawi, on the 
other hand, still didn't understand that Thaksin needed his 
help on the south, the PM said.  He repeated his claim that 
that Badawi had personal sympathies with Pattani for 
ancestral reasons.  He had two private tete-a-tete meetings 
with the Malaysian Prime Minister during last month's APEC 
Summit in Busan.  Thaksin said that he first addressed the 
Malaysian Prime Minister as his "former friend," then told 
the consternated Badawi that he meant to say "longtime 
friend."  Thaksin said that he anticipated progress on 
repatriating at least some of the 131 Thai Muslims who fled 
to Malaysia several months ago.  Now that UMNO has won the 
Kelantan by-election, it will be easier for Kuala Lumpur to 
work the issue, he believed.  Besides, Thaksin added, Badawi 
knows that without progress he would not go to Kuala Lumpur 
later this month for the ASEAN Summit. 
 
NO GOOD NEWS ON BURMA 
 
7.  (C)  Thaksin described as "crazy" the recent move by the 
SPDC to a new capital.  I asked him why he had not publicly 
criticized the regime as he had promised the President and 
the Secretary.  Quiet admonition behind closed doors by the 
Foreign Minister is not the same as public calls by the RTG 
for the SPDC to free Aung San Suu Kyi, allow the NLD to 
participate fully in the political process and to hold a real 
and credible constitutional convention,  Thaksin said that 
the main purpose of the RTG's engagement policy with Rangoon 
had been to get Burmese cooperation in stemming the flow of 
drugs into Thailand.  While some 60 percent had been 
stanched, the rest still goes into Thailand -- the SPDC 
doesn't see it as its problem.  Thaksin also agreed that the 
plight of the Burmese people -- poor, malnourished and 
without rights -- should be addressed.  I reminded him again 
that he had promised the President and the Secretary to come 
out strongly and publicly against the SPDC's policies.   We 
agreed that a very tiny group of individuals controlled all 
aspects of Buma's life and that they fear a calamitous 
downfall if they loosen their grip even a tiny bit. 
 
GOOD FOLLOW-UP ON A NUMBER OF ISSUES 
 
8.  (C)  I expressed satisfaction at the progress we were 
making on the U.S.-Thailand Action Plan.  I then asked 
Thaksin for the latest on the Royal Thai Air Force's pending 
aircraft purchase.  Thaksin replied that Thailand will 
refurbish its fleet of F-16's to extend their flight lives 
rather than buy SU-30s from Russia.  He said that he does 
want access to the Russian market so will have to buy 
something from Moscow, perhaps M-17 helicopters, but he 
assured me again that the existing F-16 fleet will receive 
mid-life upgrades in lieu of the RTAF purchasing SU-30s.  I 
asked if he plans to visit North Korea.  Thaksin replied that 
he would not.  I also thanked him for ramrodding his 
ministers into working towards concluding a successful FTA 
early next year.  The London round had shown encouraging 
progress.  Thaksin said that he was determined to achieve the 
FTA with the U.S.  The U.S. has FTA's with others and 
Thailand can't miss the boat.  He was determined on this.  He 
related, for example, that he had told his Central Bank 
Governor to follow his FTA policy or he will be out.  The 
Banking sector is run by a oligarchy, Thaksin complained, 
afraid that competition will take away the big margins they 
have enjoyed in their protected sector. 
 
ECONOMY SHOWS STRENGTH 
 
9.  (C)  I congratulated Thaksin on the third quarter 5.4 
percent growth rate and the annualized 4.7 percent rate. 
Thaksin noted that following the disastrous first quarter 
numbers "we took steps."  As for improving the population's 
economic condition, I asked him about his callback of former 
Prime Minister Chavalit Yongchaiyut to head the 
administration's anti-poverty drive.  Does he trust Chavalit? 
 Thaksin said that Chavalit has "lots of time" and "takes 
orders well." 
 
REFERS TO REPORTS OF SECRET DETENTION FACILITIES 
 
10.  (S)  Thaksin noted that ABC News had reported that the 
U.S. had operated secret detention facilities in Thailand to 
hold terror suspects.  He noted that "we deny" these 
reports."  I responded that we as a rule do not comment on 
intelligence allegations.  Thaksin chuckled at how the Thai 
media had gotten the mistaken idea that VOA's Udorn facility 
was one of those "black prisons" and complimented us for 
having opened up the facility for a huge contingent of press 
to see for themselves. 
 
11.  (C)  Comment: Thaksin was boosted by the King's speech 
and his apparent outmaneuvering of Sondhi.  He was confident 
of his close ties to the Palace and feels that he and the 
King enjoy a close relationship.  We will pocket his 
assurances that there will be no extrajudicial killings in 
the south on his watch and we will hold him to these 
assurances.  While we will wait to see where he will go on 
Burma, Thaksin's actions on the F-16s, decision not to go to 
Pyongyang, progress on FTA, and the U.S.-Thai action plan 
show a ledger with a positive balance.  End Comment 
 
BOYCE