US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI9223

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 009223 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/06/2015 
TAGS: PREL, KDEM, PINR, IN, IZ, India-Iraq 
SUBJECT: INDIA WILL TAKE STOCK OF IRAQ OPTIONS AFTER 
ELECTIONS (C-NE5-00945) 
 
REF: A. STATE 220728 
     B. STATE 218793 
     C. NEW DELHI 8627 
     D. NEW DELHI 8535 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: PolCouns shared Ref A points with MEA Joint 
Secretary (Gulf) Sanjay Singh on December 7, continuing a 
 
SIPDIS 
December 6 discussion on India's objectives and perspectives 
in the Middle East (septel).  New Delhi is waiting to see the 
outcome of the December polls in Iraq before deciding on its 
next steps with Baghdad, but would probably send a delegation 
to Baghdad after the formation of a new government, and hopes 
to restart discussions on cooperation in the oil industry. 
Although the oil voucher scam dominates discussion of Iraq, 
New Delhi recognizes the need to engage the new Iraqi 
government and contribute to its success.  Singh was 
surprisingly positive in his assessment of the upcoming 
elections, echoing public comments by GOI Middle East Envoy C 
Gharekhan welcoming the December 15 polls as "leading to the 
formation of a truly representative government."  End Summary. 
 
Elections Signal More "Normal" Politics 
--------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Singh welcomed the December 15 elections, commenting 
that after a period of "extraordinary" events in Iraq, the 
polls signify that politics is "becoming a normal process" 
now.  However, to observers like him in New Delhi, the 
outcome is a mystery, he admitted, adding that the GOI will 
wait and "take stock" of the new government after the 
elections.  Both Singh and Indian West Asia Envoy C Gharekhan 
would likely visit Baghdad after the formation of a 
government post-elections, he predicted, but uncertainty in 
the election outcome could delay such a visit.  Singh's 
comments echoed remarks by Gharekhan at the Gulf Security 
Conference in Bahrain on December 4, where he said that the 
December 15 elections would "lead to the formation of a truly 
representative government." 
 
3.  (C) Iraqi Oil Minister Mohammad Bahr al-Ulum's decision 
to join a new party likely will lead to a new Oil Minister in 
the new government, Singh speculated.  While this would delay 
New Delhi's plans to reconstitute the Indo-Iraq Joint 
Commission to discuss Indian participation in the Iraqi oil 
industry (Ref C), it may prove beneficial as it means a 
chance that the GOI would deal with only one oil minister for 
the next four years.  India's Ministry of Petroleum maintains 
contacts with Iraq's Oil Ministry, and has arranged spot 
purchases of the limited Iraqi oil that comes up for sale, 
Singh said.  "We'd like to get back" to the pre-2000 
situation where India was one of Iraq's largest oil 
purchasers, he added. 
 
Indian Training Underway 
------------------------ 
 
4.  (C) India has assistance programs underway in the form of 
technical training for workers in Iraq's oil sector, Singh 
reported, at a program cost of approximately $545,000 to 
$650,000.  Two hundred Iraqi trainees will enroll in the next 
five months in programs across India in subjects as varied as 
oil field management, environmental protection, compressor 
maintenance, and logistics management.  After PolCouns asked 
whether India would replicate its parliamentary assistance to 
Afghanistan, Singh replied that New Delhi has no roadmap for 
assistance, but is ready to respond to Iraqi requests, 
drawing from India's untapped assistance fund.  After the 
elections, he mused, the Iraqi government should have more 
capacity to look outside and consider such assistance 
programs. 
 
Oil Vouchers Team in Baghdad 
---------------------------- 
5.  (C) Singh conveyed a GOI request (originally made by the 
Foreign Secretary) that the USG facilitate the visit to 
Baghdad (starting December 7) of a team from India's 
Enforcement Directorate probing alleged involvement of Indian 
politicians in taking oil allocations from Saddam's regime. 
He remarked that MEA was staying as far away as possible from 
the Oil-for-Food scandal. 
 
Comment: Post-Natwar, New Delhi Ready To Make Up 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
6.  (C) Singh's deliberate repetition of New Delhi's view 
that the polls will be part of "normal" politics signals the 
GOI's desire to recover from disgraced FM Natwar Singh's 
blast that Iraq's government had no credibility (Ref D), and 
suggests that New Delhi will be supportive of the new Iraqi 
government post-December 15.  Although he made no specific 
commitment to a GOI public statement following the elections, 
we expect the GOI will do so, building on its welcome of the 
October constitutional referendum.  However, the Natwar 
scandal continues to overshadow all discussion of Iraq in New 
Delhi, and has already forced the postponement of Gharekhan's 
visit to Baghdad earlier this fall.  Nevertheless, strategic 
thinkers in the MEA and GOI recognize that India's long-term 
interests are well-served by engagement with the new Iraqi 
government, and we anticipate that after the oil scam blows 
over, New Delhi will rise to the challenge and seek the 
occasion for a meaningful contribution to Iraq's 
reconstruction and recovery. 
 
7.  (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website: 
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/) 
MULFORD