US embassy cable - 05RANGOON1361

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RANGOON 001361 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MLS; PACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PREL, BM, National Convention 
SUBJECT: THEY'RE BACK: REGIME RECONVENES NATIONAL CONVENTION 
 
REF: A. RANGOON 1357 
     B. RANGOON 1352 AND PREVIOUS 
     C. RANGOON 380 AND PREVIOUS 
     D. 04 RANGOON 637 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: P/E Chief W. Patrick Murphy for Reasons 1.4 (b,d) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  The Burmese regime reconvened the third 
session of its National Convention (NC) on December 5 with 
diatribes against its foreign and domestic critics and 
instructions that its 1,000-plus hand-picked delegates toe 
the party line.  The regime clearly views the NC charade as 
an indefinite process.  The GOB claims it will eventually 
produce a new constitution, as the first step on a "road map 
to a disciplined democracy," but the process seems to be less 
a mechanism for a political transition than a means of 
appeasing the country's ethnic minorities and to meeting the 
low expectations of some in the international community.  The 
democratic opposition, from the regime's perspective, is not 
even part of the equation.  The regime has taken new steps to 
ensure that the opposition is neither a source of pressure 
from outside the Convention nor an irritant from within it. 
The most recent example was the virtual exile of Shan leaders 
reported in Ref A.  End Summary. 
 
BACK IN SESSION - AGAIN 
 
2. (U) On December 5 the Burmese regime reconvened its 
farcical National Convention (NC), a pre-ordained 
constitutional "drafting" process that has been on hiatus 
since recessing in March at the end of an inconclusive 
six-week session (ref B).  Trumpeting a "99.44 percent" 
attendance rate of NC delegates, SPDC Secretary-1, Lt-Gen 
Thein Sein, who serves as Chairman of the National Convention 
Convening Commission, launched the current session at 
Nyaunghnapin Camp, a highly secure training facility for the 
regime's mass-member USDA, located 20 miles north of Rangoon. 
 
3. (SBU) The regime's 1,074 hand-picked delegates, heads of 
mission from more than a dozen diplomatic and UN missions, 
and a handful of international journalists attended opening 
ceremonies of the NC's plenary session.  Most Western 
missions, including ours, declined to attend the event (Note: 
U.S. defense attaches also declined to attend a similar 
ceremony on December 6 for the defense attach corps.  End 
Note.).  The Russian Ambassador, who attended the opening 
ceremonies on December 5, said he didn't bother to listen to 
the proceedings since they were conducted entirely in Burmese 
and he had already cabled his analysis to Moscow based on the 
regime's pre-brief for diplomats (ref A).  The Vietnamese 
Ambassador, who also attended, laughed and shook his head 
when the Charge asked if we should expect a new constitution 
anytime soon. 
 
4. (C) The original National Convention collapsed in 1996, 
after three years of fits and starts, when Burma's leading 
democratic opposition party, the National League for 
Democracy (NLD), pulled out in protest over the regime's 
manipulation of the process.  The SPDC has since excluded 
democratic opposition parties, including the NLD, from the 
process.  The NC session reconvened this week is the third 
since the SPDC reconstituted the Convention in late 2003 as 
the first step on its ill-defined "road map to a disciplined 
democracy" (ref C). 
 
THOSE PESKY DESTRUCTIVE ELEMENTS 
 
5. (U) In his brief opening speech, Gen Thein Sein responded 
to NLD and international criticism of the exclusive NC 
process by urging delegates "to be vigilant against the 
dangers and perpetrations of the internal and external 
destructive elements (who are) obstructing and harming our 
National Convention."  Thein Sein claimed that the NC work 
committee had studied constitutions of "some neighboring and 
western nations" during the recent recess, but insisted that 
the regime would draft a constitution "best suited for our 
country."  Thein Sein did not specify a timeline for the 
duration of this NC session, nor a target date for producing 
a final constitution, but intimated that the process will 
still take considerable time.  (Note: Ref B reported GOB 
indications that the NC process would not conclude before the 
end of 2006.  End Note.) 
 
DON'T TALK, JUST LISTEN, FOR YOUR 50 CENTS A DAY 
 
6. (U) Minister of Information Brig-Gen Kyaw Hsan offered 
"clarifications" on NC procedures to delegates and observers 
on opening day.  Kyaw Hsan read a long list of rules and 
regulations, including requirements that delegates keep all 
news about the NC "secret;"  bow to the State flag whenever 
entering or leaving the meeting hall; refrain from talking 
about "the interests of organizations and persons that are 
not in the framework of the law;" and not repeat "any matter 
that has already been discussed at this meeting."  The 
Minister, saying that the strict rules are "badly needed for 
security" and "are not an act of oppression," announced that 
the regime had decided to increase per diem for delegates 
from 200 to 500 kyats per day (from 20 cents to 50 cents). 
 
7. (C) Delegates to the NC, many of whom attend unwillingly, 
approached the current session with a mixture of dread and 
resignation.  Several delegates, speaking to Emboffs in 
contravention of NC regulations, said that the "discussions" 
held in Convention workshops are so contrived and manipulated 
that the delegates have given up trying to make any 
meaningful contributions, preferring to daydream while 
regime-designated facilitators mull over pre-drafted 
constitutional language.  Although the increased per diem is 
a welcome adjustment, delegates say that they cannot avail 
themselves of "weekend passes" to escape the confines of the 
NC site because local transportation costs are too costly. 
On the other hand, say some delegates, they are not required 
to do much actual work since the ultimate results are 
predetermined and, therefore, enjoy the temporary vacation 
from their regular routines at the office or on the farm. 
 
TELL US WHAT WE WANT TO HEAR 
 
8. (U) The regime's mouthpiece newspaper, the New Light of 
Myanmar, notorious for its strident propaganda, published a 
poem on December 6 that "celebrated" the gathering of 
delegates from throughout the country, but unintentionally 
made it clear that the regime does not expect open debate or 
dissent at the National Convention.  The poem read in part: 
 
"Nyaung-hnapin, Victorious Camp 
The National Convention 
From all directions to attend 
Delegate Brethren 
To meet and discuss 
To discuss and confer... 
One tells what another wants to know 
The other tells what one wants." 
 
COMMENT: SAME TASTE, LESS FILLING 
 
9. (C) Little has changed since May 2004 when the regime 
reconvened the current National Convention.  It was clear 
then, and perhaps even more so now, that without an open, 
deliberative, and participatory constitutional drafting 
process, the regime's road map lacks any credibility as a 
transition to democracy.   The SPDC persists with the 
charade, however, in order to buy time in dealing with the 
country's ethnic minorities, who demand greater autonomy, and 
in order to demonstrate to ASEAN members and other foreign 
"friends" with low expectations that Burma continues (slowly) 
toward rule of law.  Since many had been convinced that this 
would be the final session with a referendum scheduled in 
2006, we will explore how the "friends" will justify this 
more drawn out process.  The democratic opposition, from the 
regime's perspective, is not even part of the equation.  The 
SPDC's primary objective for the current NC is to maintain 
complete control, avoiding the "mistakes" it made in 1993 
when it allowed the NLD and its allies to influence the 
process.  In this respect, the regime has already succeeded. 
Ref A reported the virtual exile of Shan leaders, who had 
participated in earlier NC sessions.  Excluded from the 
proceedings -- with its leaders behind bars and its rank and 
file members forced underground -- the opposition parties can 
neither be a source of pressure from outside the Convention 
nor irritants from within.  End Comment. 
VILLAROSA