US embassy cable - 05TEGUCIGALPA2453

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEGUCIGALPA 002453 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA, WHA/PPC, WHA/USOAS, AND WHA/CEN 
NSC FOR DAN FISK 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/06/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, ECON, KCRM, PINR, HO 
SUBJECT: HONDURAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS AT DAY 9 LIKE THE 
ENERGIZER BUNNY - THEY KEEP GOING AND GOING AND GOING 
 
REF: TEGUCIGALPA 2442 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: Chief of the Political Section Derrick M. Olsen; 
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary: Although it has been nine days since the 
Honduran National Elections ended November 27, it feels like 
it is day 90.  The vote count tabulation is stalling at 
approximately 90 percent completion and National Party 
presidential candidate Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo still has not 
officially conceded, although at this stage there is no 
reason to believe that Liberal Party presidential candidate 
Manuel "Mel" Zelaya will not be the next President of 
Honduras.  There is hope that a Supreme Electoral Tribunal 
(TSE) statement about the vote tendencies indicating a likely 
Zelaya win will be issued the morning of December 7.  A 
private meeting between Lobo and Zelaya the evening of 
December 6 may help spur a resolution, as Zelaya continues to 
form his planned Cabinet, but the presidential elections are 
still not officially over.  End summary. 
 
Senior State/Embassy Officials to Meet with Zelaya 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
2. (SBU) Under Secretary for Public Diplomacy Hughes, WHA 
Assistant Secretary Shannon, the Ambassador, and the DCM plan 
to meet the afternoon of December 6 with Liberal Party 
presidential candidate Manuel "Mel" Zelaya and his Campaign 
Manager and likely Minister of Finance, Hugo Noe Pino, in San 
Pedro Sula on the margins of U/S Hughes and A/S Shannon's 
visit to Caribbean coast areas affected by storms/flooding. 
(See septel on December 7 for details of the meeting.) 
Although the purpose of the meeting is not/not to formally 
congratulate Zelaya on his likely victory, it is safe to 
assume that the press will see it as such.  President Ricardo 
Maduro, who met with U/S Hughes and A/S Shannon and EmbOffs 
earlier in the day, knows about the planned Zelaya meeting, 
as does the Lobo campaign. 
 
Election Counting Drags; TSE May Release Statement 12/7 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
3. (SBU) PolOffs were informed the afternoon of December 7 
that the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) had tabulated 88.38 
percent of the vote counts (12,257 vote counts).  Zelaya 
maintains his approximate 3.74 percent lead over Lobo.  The 
vote tabulation has essentially not moved since December 3, 
and is delayed for a variety of reasons, chief among them the 
fact that the TSE's High-Level Commission, tasked with 
reviewing the 1,757 disputed vote counts, is very slow in 
making progress.  The Commission is made up of four members 
of each party (two regular, two alternate) so that there are 
ten members at any given time reviewing documents. 
Non-National Party Commission members report that their 
findings will not change the tendencies of the election 
outcome. 
 
4. (SBU) The TSE, in conjunction with the Organization of 
American States Election Observation Mission (OAS EOM), told 
PolChief and PolOffs that they intend to release a statement 
the morning of December 7 with current results and election 
outcome tendencies.  TSE President Aristides Mejia (Liberal 
Party) and TSE Magistrate Saul Escobar (Christian Democrat 
Party) both support this move by the TSE.  OAS informed 
PolChief the evening of December 5 that OAS Secretary General 
Insulza, together with OAS EOM Chief Moises Benamor, called 
both Mejia and Escobar (but were unable to reach TSE 
Magistrate Jacobo Hernandez (National Party)) on December 5 
to discuss the planned TSE statement.  Embassy fully supports 
and encourages this planned statement as well, and has made 
this clear to Mejia and Escobar, as well as to the OAS. 
 
5. (U) The TSE issued a statement dated December 5 that was 
published in newspapers December 6 explaining how the 
tabulation of vote counts of electoral tables was proceeding. 
 It stated that all vote counts are scanned before entering 
the tabulation center and subsequently scanned after being 
data entered.  Each political party receives the information 
and may contest the certification of the vote counts.  For 
the most part, all vote counts are currently being housed at 
the TSE tabulation center where they undergo a lengthy 
process to validate their authenticity.  Afterwards, the 
technical team enters the information in the TSE computers. 
If for any reason the information entered is rejected by the 
computer checks to prevent potential mistakes/fraud, the TSE 
will repeat the process of verifying the authenticity of the 
vote counts.  All precautionary measures were taken by the 
Honduran Armed Forced to prevent unauthorized individuals 
from gaining access to electoral material and or have any 
electoral material leave designated areas without TSE 
authorization.  An executive commission of high level party 
representatives has been appointed, which includes four 
members of each political party, to inspect problematic vote 
counts (see para 3). 
 
6. (SBU) The tabulation of vote counts for  congress 
continues to ebb and flow since the system of proportionality 
has not been applied to the raw vote totals yet.  Once all 
the votes are tallied, then the make up of the next Congress 
will be known.  However, it appears that the Liberals will 
have a plurality, though an outright majority is doubtful 
without a coalition.  Additionally, tendencies seem to show 
that some "old-timers" congressmen who made it through the 
primaries in February by being on Lobo's or Zelaya's ticket 
may not be elected, causing considerable consternation among 
the political dinosaurs. 
 
You Take The High Road, I'll Take the Lobo Road 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
7. (C) As reported in reftel, in spite of recent promises to 
the contrary, Lobo has let it be known that he is under no 
obligation to formally concede.  Having said that, Christian 
Democratic Party leader and prominent pollster Arturo 
Corrales hosted a private meeting between Lobo, Zelaya, 
former Honduran President Carlos Flores, and National Party 
heavyweight Mario Rivera Lopez the evening of December 5. 
While details of the meeting are not yet available, Corrales 
told PolChief that the discussions were very productive. 
(Note: As of mid-day December 6, the press has not reported 
on this meeting. End Note.)  PolChief made clear to Corrales 
that the Embassy supported the planned TSE statement on the 
election tendencies.  Corrales said he did as well, and he 
said the he thought the National Party would accept issuing 
such a statement December 7. 
 
Changes Already in Zelaya's Cabinet 
----------------------------------- 
 
8. (SBU) As noted in reftel, Zelaya officially withdrew Jorge 
Arturo Reina as nominee for Minister of Foreign Affairs.  The 
name now being bantered about is Milton Danilo Jimenez 
Puerto, who is not well known to the Embassy.  Reina has been 
re-assigned to be the Minister of Government and Justice 
(slated to be renamed Minister of the Interior). (Note: In 
contrast to many Latin American countries, the Ministry of 
Interior has no police functions.  Rather, it is more 
amorphous and will handle GOH relations with departments and 
municipalities.  It also presently has line authority over 
Immigration, although that could possibly change in any 
immigration reform undertaken by the December lameduck 
congress.  End note.)  The press has picked up on the fact 
that many of Zelaya's proposed Cabinet members are from San 
Pedro Sula. 
 
Sporadic Violence Not Indicative of Something Darker 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
9. (SBU) While there have been incidences of violence since 
the November 27 elections, they are not indicative of a 
larger, election-related trend.  While there are conflicting 
versions of the story, on November 27 in Danli after the 
polls closed, a Liberal Party election worker was attacked 
and killed by a mob after he shot dead a National Party 
election worker.  On November 28, a truck in the greater 
Tegucigalpa area with 23 Liberal Party merrymakers flipped 
over and killed all passengers.  Also heavily reported is the 
beating of Liberal Party member Roberto Jose Nodarse November 
29 in San Pedro Sula allegedly by several National Party 
members.  Nodarse was left for dead and remains in critical 
condition in the hospital.  While there are other scattered 
reports of violence against members of the National and 
Liberal Parties, Post believes that most are likely to be sad 
but tragically common acts of criminality and not party 
retribution. 
 
Lame Duck Congress to Meet 
-------------------------- 
 
10. (SBU) The Honduran Congress is set to hold a lame-duck 
session on December 13, led by Lobo as President of Congress. 
 It is likely that they will discuss technical CAFTA 
implementation legislation, a draft telecommunications bill, 
and perhaps immigration reform and other issues. 
Ford