US embassy cable - 05PORTAUPRINCE2994

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT AU PRINCE 002994 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA AND USOAS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, HA, Elections 
SUBJECT: HAITIAN CANDIDATES' OBSTINATE PURSUIT OF 
PRESIDENCY IMPEDES COALITION-BUILDING 
 
 
Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Douglas M. Griffiths for Reasons 
: 1.4 (b and d) 
 
1.  (SBU)  Summary:  Nine Haitian political parties, 
essentially comprising an anti-Preval front, have agreed to 
support the presidential candidate among them who advances to 
the second round.  The agreement includes Charles Henry 
Baker, who had previously been excluded from discussions of 
party alliances because of his independent status.  With the 
publication of the electoral calendar, the pace of 
discussions among various presidential candidates has 
intensified, and smaller alliances may emerge. But the 
unwillingness of the most established candidates to step 
aside in support of a single candidate casts doubt on their 
ability to unite in opposition to Preval.  Preval could 
conceivably win in the first round, particularly if 
disqualified candidate Dumas Simeus concludes an alliance 
with him.  End Summary. 
 
The Political Agreement for Democracy and Modernity 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
2. (SBU)  On November 28, 2005, nine Haitian parties signed 
an agreement to support the presidential candidate among them 
who advances from the first round of national elections on 
January 8, 2006.  The parties came to this agreement assuming 
that their candidate would face off against the front-runner, 
former president Rene Preval.  (Haitian electoral law 
stipulates that if no candidate receives an absolute majority 
in the first round, the top two vote-getters proceed to a 
second round run-off election.)  The nine parties signing the 
Political Agreement for Democracy and Modernity accord 
include: RDNP (presidential candidate - Leslie Manigat), 
Alyans (Evans Paul), KOMBA/PLB (Charles Henry Baker), FUSION 
(Serge Gilles), OPL (Paul Denis), MOCHRENHA (Luc Mesadieu), 
Union to Save Haiti-UNCRH (Chavannes Jeune), GFCD (Hubert 
DeRonceray) and the Haitian Liberal Party-PLH (none).  If two 
of the signatories make it into the second round, each party 
is free to support their choice of candidate.  The agreement 
also calls for the formalization of the opposition once a 
parliament is seated and the establishment of "significant" 
state budgetary support for parties that obtain at least five 
percent of votes for the presidency and at least ten percent 
of parliamentary seats (even for non-signatories to the 
accord). 
 
3. (C)  Several sources, both political and non-political, 
have told Polcouns that G-184 leaders, notably Andy Apaid and 
Reginald Boulos, have concentrated their political efforts on 
completing this agreement.  Apaid himself had reportedly 
favored Manigat, but shifted his focus over the past several 
weeks to promoting an anti-Preval alliance.  In the process, 
Apaid and Boulos successfully brought independent candidate 
Charles Henri Baker, who had previously been left out of 
previous discussions among party leaders.  (Note: Baker 
allied with KOMBA and smaller PLB only after successfully 
establishing his independent candidacy.  End Note.) 
 
4. (C) Alyans campaign manager Fred Brutus shared the results 
of an Alyans poll with poloff on December 1 showing Paul, 
Preval and Baker as the top three candidates.  Brutus said 
that he was in talks with the disqualified presidential 
candidate Samir Mourra to pursue an electoral alliance with 
Mourra's MPH party. (Note: Mourra later confirmed his 
campaign manager was meeting Brutus. End note).  Brutus 
flatly said the Political Agreement for Democracy and 
Modernity would disintegrate, possibly even before the first 
round.  Mourra had told poloff November 30 that he would have 
considered joining this coalition, but was not asked to be 
included.  Mourra said he had held talks with several of the 
candidates involved and none mentioned this agreement before 
it was publicly announced.  Mourra continues to pursue his 
challenge before the supreme court to have his name put back 
on the ballot. 
 
Simeus Considering Alliance 
--------------------------- 
 
5.  (U)  Disqualified presidential candidate Dumas Simeus 
announced at a December 1 press conference that his "Tet 
Ansamn" party would soon make "an alliance or coalition" with 
another party, so that the electoral contest could be decided 
"in one round."  Simeus told the press he has talked to 
several candidates, but he only mentioned L'Espoir's Rene 
Preval by name. (Note: In discussions with Polcouns over the 
last several months, Simeus has consistently mentioned Preval 
most often in discussing potential alliances, but has 
insisted that he will consider all options. End Note.) 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
6.  (C)  The November 28 agreement is the result of the 
acknowledgment that Preval is the front-runner, and might 
even carry the election in the first round.  While the 
signing of the accord made a big splash in the media, it 
simply formalizes a grouping of parties that began to 
coalesce with their adoption of the June 2005 governability 
pact, in which signatories pledged to work together in the 
new parliament and to create an inclusive cabinet.  It was 
surprising to see Baker included in this latest agreement: 
his status as an independent, and success in garnering 
support, has been a hard pill to swallow for the 
long-standing members of the "political class."  His 
inclusion shows they prefer to have him as an ally rather 
than another front of competition.  Despite the growing fear 
of Preval, however, this coalition's ability to form a 
credible front will only succeed if presidential hopefuls 
overcome their unwillingness to be the first to step aside in 
favor of another candidate.  End Comment. 
CARNEY