US embassy cable - 05DUSHANBE1950

C O N F I D E N T I A L  DUSHANBE 001950 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
CONFIDENTIAL 
 
SIPDIS 
EUR FOR CACEN, SA 
NSC FOR MERKEL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  12/6/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, ECON, KDEM, KISL, KPAO, TI, Economics and Trade, Internal Politics 
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN'S NORTHERN REGION WANTS TO BE INDEPENDENT OF 
DUSHANBE'S CLUTCHES 
 
REF: DUSHANBE 1701 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Richard Hoagland, Ambassador, Dushanbe, 
Tajikistan, Department of State. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
1.  (C)  SUMMARY:  Historically, the Sughd region in northern 
Tajikistan served as the intellectual and economic hub of 
Tajikistan.  Its proximity to Uzbekistan still grants it trade, 
business and access to media and information outside of 
Tajikistan.  Although Dushanbe attempts to keep a tight reign on 
the north, civil society remains defiant.  In the last few 
months, authorities arrested several opposition party activists, 
including Social Democratic Party of Tajikistan member Fayziniso 
Vohidova, who remains imprisoned.  Contacts expressed 
frustration with Dushanbe's suppression and have started 
organizing for change.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C)  PolOff traveled to Khojand and Istaravshan November 
28-29 to meet with leaders from local NGOs, political parties, 
and business.  In the past, government leaders of Tajikistan all 
came from Khojand.  A good railroad and road system turned the 
North into a business and intellectual center.  In the last 
century, the shift of power to Dushanbe after independence 
exacerbated the rift between northerners and southerners. 
Notably in Istaravshan in 1998, locals revolted against the 
militia when the government appointed Kulobis to local 
government from President Rahmonov's home region in the south. 
Troops from Dushanbe quelled the protests.  Since then, the 
government has treated Istaravshan with kid gloves.  Istaravshan 
has a long revolutionary history, ever since they kicked out 
Alexander the Great's troops.  Even the Soviet government 
watched Istaravshan carefully and viewed it as the "Chechnya of 
Tajikistan."  The region's historical importance remains 
relevant today.  The Sughd region is an area to keep an eye on 
for political opposition and new economic growth. 
 
THE NORTH IS EAGER FOR CHANGE 
 
3.  (C)  Located approximately 400 kilometers north over a 
series of mountain ranges, impassable by car in winter until the 
Anzob Tunnel is completed in 2006, the Sughd region's distance 
and relative isolation from Dushanbe afford political leaders, 
NGOs, and businesses greater freedom to voice criticism of the 
government, albeit with discretion.  However, Dushanbe still 
subjects opposition political activists and the general 
population to the same authoritarian pressure as the rest of the 
country. 
 
4.  (C)  In separate meetings, local leaders criticized 
President Rahmonov for his stronghold on power and restrictive 
policies, and indicated they were ready for change.  Sattor 
Asrorov, a retired colonel and brother-in-law of Sayfiddin 
Turayev, a popular local politician affiliated with the inactive 
Congress of Popular Unity Movement and critical of the 
government, made clear Istaravshan is tired of President 
Rahmonov's regime.  Asrorov, himself, applied several times for 
permission to hold public demonstrations, but was rejected.  He 
noted he would not be surprised if the people were to 
demonstrate or rise up against Rahmonov.  Bobojon Ikromov, 
editor of "Varorud," an independent weekly newspaper, also saw 
change in the country's future.  He reported that Sughd clan and 
business leaders held a series of meetings to discuss whom from 
the North should run against Rahmonov in the later 2006 
presidential election.  Regional leaders view Russia's warming 
relationship with Uzbekistan as a sign Russia may not support 
Rahmonov in next year's election, given the strained 
 
 
relationship between Rahmonov and Karimov.  Ikromov mentioned 
Rashid Olimov, Ambassador to China, as one possible candidate 
Russia may support in next year's presidential election.  In the 
last presidential election, the north supported Abdumalik 
Abdullojonov, and they maintain he won the majority of the vote. 
 
5.  (C)  COMMENT:  Political leaders in the North are optimistic 
Rahmonov may not be re-elected next year.  However, if the north 
puts forth a candidate, Tajikistan will split along a 
geographical divide and southerners by default will vote for a 
southern candidate.  END COMMENT. 
 
KHOJAND AUTHORITIES GO OUT OF THEIR WAY TO PLEASE DUSHANBE 
 
6.  (C)  Knowing the strain in the north-south relationship, 
Dushanbe appointed many southerners to local government 
positions in the North to maintain power.  The local government 
is eager to please Dushanbe authorities and employs extreme 
tactics to deliver results.  Islomhom Bokkosov, Director of the 
Institute for Human Rights, a Khojand NGO, emphasized one 
example: police brutality is growing.  The government provides a 
financial reward for every crime solved.  Therefore, the 
prosecutor's office orders law enforcement personnel to torture 
suspects to extract confessions and "solve" cases.  They 
reportedly have also rounded up the mentally ill and physically 
disabled and claimed them as suspects. 
 
TARGETING THE OPPOSITION 
 
7.  (C)  In the months approaching next year's presidential 
election, the government is taking no chances and is increasing 
pressure on opposition political parties and NGOs.  Local 
authorities, on instruction from Dushanbe, singled out political 
activists and organizations opposing government policies to 
harass and formally prosecute.  The government targeted The 
Rights of Citizens, NGO lawyers, and Social Democratic Party of 
Tajikistan (SDPT) members because they have been successful in 
high-profile cases against the prosecutor's office- the majority 
pro-bono, defending the rights of women, the poor, and 
beleaguered entrepreneurs.  The government inspected The Rights 
of Citizens three times in the last four months.  Dilbar 
Samadova, regional Chair of the SDPT, was threatened with 
imprisonment and resigned from her position at the local 
university.  Her husband, also threatened because of her 
political affiliations, left her and their three children. 
 
8.  (C)  Another example is the high profile case of Fayziniso 
Vohidova, imprisoned October 12 for falsification of her law 
diploma (REFTEL).  Vohidova is the latest in a series of 
imprisoned political activists.  According to her lawyer, 
Bakhtiyor Nasrulloyev, she remains in jail with no designated 
release date.  The prosecutor's office continues the 
investigation of the case by inspecting her finances.  A video 
camera monitors her cell; however, prison guards respect 
Vohidova for her service to the community and have been lenient, 
allowing visitors and privileges not afforded to other 
prisoners.  The government will likely continue to intimidate 
opponents until it is satisfied there is no one left to 
challenge it. 
 
BUSINESS IS BOOMING, BUT FACES COMPETITION FROM CHINA 
 
9.  (C)  Businesses in the Sughd region must tackle the same 
problems as others throughout Tajikistan, mainly corruption, a 
high tax rate, and competition from cheaper Chinese goods.  Both 
of the businesses visited in Istaravshan cited Chinese 
competition as a serious impediment to growth.  Tajikistan is 
trying to move towards a market economy, but economic barriers 
 
 
and corruption prevent businesses from competing with foreign 
companies. 
 
10.  (C)  Despite these obstacles, many developers are building 
and renovating commercial and residential properties, central 
markets operate until late hours, and there are plenty of 
Mercedes driving around town.  The region's largest indoor 
market, Hojijayit, opened in September in Istaravshan.  In order 
to stave off Chinese competition, Chinese vendors will operate 
in a separate building outside of this indoor market.  In 
addition, taxes for Chinese businesses are higher than for Tajik 
businesses.  Hamid Muminov, the owner, spent $8 million to 
construct the market complex and roads leading up to it. 
According to Bakhtiyor Nasrulloyev, Muminov's lawyer, he rented 
all 400 stalls to wholesale vendors for $100 per month.  The day 
PolOff visited, the building was vacant.  The market is new, 
located on the outskirts of Istaravshan, competing with fifteen 
other markets in Istaravshan, and construction is not fully 
complete.  Once the area is more developed, the market is 
expected to be a bustling center of business.  Muminov intends 
to invest in more construction projects in Istaravshan.  He is 
the richest man in the Sughd region.  Originally from 
Istaravshan, he founded Hamid Oil, a Kazakh-based company, and 
has ties to LukOil. 
 
11.  (C)  In contrast to Hamid's modern indoor market, the chief 
engineer of a knitting factory owned by Sayfiddin Turayev, 
Inomgon Mamurova, complained his business faced decline due to 
high taxes, corruption and competition from Chinese goods. 
Without large sums of financial and capital investment, it is 
challenging for a small outfit such as a local knitting factory 
to operate, not to mention grow.  With increased investment, 
businesses could take advantage of the region's external links. 
However, most of the financial investment is directed to the 
south of Tajikistan. 
 
RELIGION CANNOT BE SUPPRESSED IN SUGHD REGION 
 
12.  (C)  The influence of Islam is more visible in Khojand and 
Istaravshan than in Dushanbe.  Newly constructed and renovated 
buildings take on distinctly Islamic architectural 
characteristics.  There are a greater number of mosques and 
madrassas than in Dushanbe.  The well-maintained mosques show 
the financial wealth of the region as well as people's devotion 
to Islam.  Because of this greater support, religious leaders 
can affect change and defend their rights. 
 
13.  (C)  The Islamic Revival Party of Tajikistan  (IRPT) is one 
such effective organization.  Since the Minister of Education 
issued a decree banning the Muslim head covering, hijab, in 
public education institutions, many girls have been expelled. 
Teachers who wear hijab were also forced to resign.  Hafiza 
Sodiqova, Head of the women's wing of the IRPT in Khojand, 
claimed that fifteen incidents were reported to the IRPT, but 
many more were unreported.  In each case, the IRPT approached 
the principal of the school, explained that hijabs are actually 
legal and was able to reinstate the student in all but one. 
Sodiqova complained the fatwah imposed in August prohibiting 
women to pray in mosques and forcing women to remove hijabs when 
taking passport photos is a violation of their rights.  She 
commented that restrictions on religious freedom, whether it is 
from the government or Islam itself, would turn young people to 
extremist religious organizations. 
 
14.  (C)  The government sees popular religious leaders as a 
threat.  Sajid Azamhonzoda, a moderate Imam of the largest 
mosque in Istaravshan participated in February in the U.S. 
International Visitors Program, "Religion, Politics and 
 
 
Tolerance in America."  In June, he spoke to students about 
religious freedom at the American Corner in Khojand.  Wary of 
his intentions, after the talk, the Ministry of Security 
interrogated all the students.  Since then, he has not 
interacted with the students because he fears harassment from 
the Ministry of Security.  However, his mosque remains open and 
well attended. 
 
15.  (C)  COMMENT:  The Sughd region is more politically active 
and defiant than Dushanbe.  The government's strict treatment of 
the North furthers the historical north-south rift.  Instead of 
controlling the region, it is ostracizing and agitating the 
people.  The government, locked in an old-guard control 
mind-set, does not seem to understand repression is a dangerous 
game.  END COMMENT. 
HOAGLAND 
 
 
NNNN