US embassy cable - 05ISTANBUL2053

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 002053 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, TU, Istanbul 
SUBJECT: ISTANBUL POLITICS:  TAYYIP BEY STILL IN CHARGE? 
 
REF: ISTANBUL 1734 
 
Classified By: Consul General Deborah K. Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and 
(d). 
 
1. (C) Summary:  Istanbul Mayor Kadir Topbas captured the 
city's attention last month when he fired Istanbul Deputy 
Mayor Idris Gulluce, following intense media speculation that 
Gulluce was the real power behind the throne.  The move 
allowed Topbas to regain "face," but privately contacts have 
told us that while Gulluce was scapegoated for the sake of 
public perception, he continues to enjoy both grassroots 
support and support from Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. 
 Gulluce has since been elected Chairman of the Municipal 
Assembly and named supporters to head the Assembly's planning 
and zoning commissions.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (U) Front page news:  The dismissal of Istanbul 
deputy-mayor Idris Gulluce November 8 and subsequent 
resignation of the municipal Secretary General and Deputy 
Secretary, both Gulluce supporters, roiled municipal politics 
 
SIPDIS 
and sparked speculation about disarray in the city's ruling 
Justice and Development (AK) Party.  Rumors that Gulluce was 
the real power behind the municipality's throne had been 
circulating for weeks and emerged in the press in the wake of 
controversial plans to build a mosque in Kadikoy's Goztepe 
Park (reftel) and to launch a third bridge project on the 
Bosphorus.  In a November 8 statement announcing Gulluce's 
dismissal, Mayor Topbas said he had no personal problems with 
the Deputy Mayor, but that "media speculation could lead 
people to think I have no more control of the authority 
voters gave me."  To prevent that, he said, he had to make a 
"radical decision." 
 
3.  (C) Sacked, but still supported:  On the surface this 
development allowed Mayor Topbas to save face with the 
public, and he has since projected control by calling off the 
unpopular third bridge project.  Privately, however, contacts 
have told us that Gulluce was scapegoated for the sake of 
public perception, and that he still exercises great 
influence.  Prior to the sacking, a poll had shown support 
for the AKP in Istanbul declining by 13 percent, with some 
observers attributing the dip to Gulluce's outspokenness on 
the Goztepe Park mosque and other "conservative" antics. 
Yildiz University political scientist Fulya Atacan told us 
November 29 that, regardless of what caused the dip in 
popularity, PM Erdogan was obliged to support Topbas over 
Gulluce, as Topbas was a longtime loyal supporter.  Press 
reports had speculated that the Prime Minister must have 
tacitly approved the firing.  Atacan did not rule that out, 
but maintained that Gulluce still has the Prime Minister's 
support. 
 
4. (C)  "The Mayor is honest, but weak":  CHP's leader in the 
Municipal Assembly and Deputy Mayor of Besiktas municipality 
Kemal Akar told us November 22 that Prime Minister Erdogan, 
when selecting a mayoral candidate last year, had been intent 
on finding someone who would not surface as a competitor or 
outshine him, as he had outshone then Prime Minister Erbakan 
in the 1990s during his term as Istanbul Mayor.  Akar said 
Gulluce had also been a candidate, and had likely enjoyed 
greater grassroots support, but that Erdogan chose Topbas 
instead for this reason.  In order to placate Gulluce, Akar 
claimed, the Prime Minister arranged that he would co-govern 
the city with Topbas, in a specially created "Deputy Mayor" 
position.  (Note:  Professor Atacan confirmed that such a 
position had not existed before.  Since Gulluce's firing, the 
position has been abolished.  End note.)  Akar considers the 
Mayor to be honest and sincere, but says "he is weak, and 
they do not leave him alone," adding that "decisions are not 
made in Istanbul; the Prime Minister wants to run Istanbul 
himself." 
 
5. (C)  Reshuffling commissions:  Meanwhile, Gulluce, 
considered to be of the more conservative, "Milli Gorus" 
(National View, note: closely affiliated with Necmettin 
Erbakan and his Islamic political parties) flank of the 
party, maintains strong support in the Istanbul Municipal 
Assembly, which subsequently elected him Chairman with a 
large majority.  Akar told us Gulluce is now shuffling the 
Assembly's commission chairmanships, as revenge for his 
sacking, and replaced Tankut Gundogar, a more "liberal name" 
who headed up the planning commission, with a more 
conservative individual from Kartal district.  Sefer Kocabas, 
AKP Istanbul Chairman Mehmet Muezzinoglu's business partner, 
was reportedly elected as the head of the all-important 
Zoning Commission. 
 
6.  (C)  Comment: The house-cleaning has enabled Mayor Topbas 
to reinforce his public profile as the man in charge in 
Istanbul, but behind the scenes the situation remains much 
murkier.  With Gulluce's continued influence in the assembly 
and apparent ability to send Topbas proteges (like Gundogar) 
packing, soon after they had made the jump to politics and 
public service from the business world, further fireworks are 
a distinct possibility.  End Comment. 
JONES