US embassy cable - 05ROME3996

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 003996 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, IT, ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS 
SUBJECT: ELECTORAL REFORM CREATES INTRA-COALITION BATTLES 
 
REF: A) ROME 3442 
     B) ROME 3936 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Political strategists tell us that 
electoral reform legislation likely to be approved by the 
Italian Senate in the coming weeks will force coalition 
members to run against each other in the 2006 electoral 
campaign.  Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and his centrist 
coalition partner Pier Ferdinando Casini have already 
exchanged barbed comments and the Center-Left is famously 
disunited, as well.  Intra-coalition disputes do not 
necessarily mean the coalition is about to rupture.  A 
tightening campaign between the Center-Left and the Center- 
Right and intra-coalition competition mean we should prepare 
for strong campaign rhetoric, even among presumed friends. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (SBU) PM Silvio Berlusconi's Center-Right coalition 
pushed electoral reform legislation through the Chamber of 
Deputies on October 13 (REF A).  The primary component of 
the reform is a change from a mixed 
proportional/majoritarian voting system to an entirely 
proportional system.  It is widely expected that the Senate 
will approve the legislation in the next few weeks. 
Politicians from both the Center-Right and Center-Left 
already have changed campaign strategies accordingly. 
 
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ELECTORAL REFORM CREATES INTERNAL COMPETITION 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
3. (SBU) A proportional electoral system with an electoral 
list means each party receives seats in parliament according 
to the percentage of votes it receives in the general 
election.  The system for the Chamber of Deputies and the 
Senate will be significantly different (SEPTEL), but both 
will use a list-based proportional system to determine the 
number of seats in the respective chamber. 
 
4. (SBU) A Forza Italia (FI) electoral manager told Poloff 
in September that a proportional electoral system would free 
Berlusconi to campaign as the head of his political party, 
FI, and not as the head of a broader coalition.  As such, he 
said Berlusconi could blame perceived policy failures on his 
coalition allies and promote himself as an alternative.  The 
FI official told Poloff that individual parties in the 
Center-Left or Center-Right were more likely to gain votes 
at the expense of a coalition ally than from the opposition. 
For example, he said Forza Italia is more likely to capture 
voters from coalition partner National Alliance (AN) than 
from the Democrats of the Left (DS).  He said campaign 
tactics would be designed to exploit those opportunities. 
 
5. (U) Mario Landolfi, former AN spokesman and current 
Minister of Communications, said to the press that the 
Center-Right had developed a three-pronged attack.  He 
explained that in the electoral campaign, Berlusconi, Casini 
and Fini would each campaign according to his own strategy, 
under a unified coalition theme. 
 
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ELECTION FIREWORKS HAVE ALREADY STARTED 
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6. (SBU) The national electoral campaign has already 
started.  Though the public airing of internal coalition 
disputes is common, Chamber of Deputies President and Union 
of the Christian Democrats of the Center (UDC) party leader 
Pier Ferdinando Casini made the first strong rhetorical 
attack of the season on November 27.  Casini said, "We 
cannot tell the Italians what they want to hear: that we 
have the magic recipe.  Italians are tired of illusionists." 
This was seen as a direct attack on Berlusconi. The 
following day Berlusconi responded with irritation to 
journalists that he did not think Casini was referring to 
him.  Berlusconi continued with his own criticism of former 
UDC Party Secretary Marco Follini, saying, "for the first 
time in history I completed government programs despite 
Follini and his friends." 
 
7. (SBU) The Center-Left, with its coalition including 
relative conservatives and unreformed communists, is 
famously less united than the Center-Right.  REF B reports 
on the dispute between the reformist and radical elements of 
the Center-Left regarding Italian troop deployments to Iraq. 
Battles exist even within the radical parties, as well, with 
the Greens trying to show themselves more anti-war than the 
Communist Renewal Party to gain a few votes.  Competition 
among smaller parties is particularly intense since a single 
percentage point increase could mean the difference between 
seats in parliament and political irrelevance. 
 
8. (SBU) COMMENT: With opinion polls showing the Center- 
Left's lead slipping to a statistical dead heat with the 
Center-Right, the 2006 electoral campaign will be fiercely 
fought.  The reintroduction of a proportional electoral 
system will increase competition among parties within the 
same coalition and add to the fireworks.  The two examples 
cited above are representative of many other intra-coalition 
battles, and we should not be shocked to see even stronger 
attacks on members of the same coalition.  END COMMENT. 
 
SPOGLI