US embassy cable - 05CAIRO9055

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 009055 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR NEA AND H 
NSC STAFF FOR SINGH 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PTER, PGOV, OREP, ECON, EG, Foreign Affairs, Visits 
SUBJECT: SENATOR HAGEL'S DECEMBER 4 MEETING WITH PRESIDENT 
MUBARAK 
 
Classified by Ambassador Francis J. Ricciardone, for reasons 
1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) In a December 4 meeting, President Mubarak discussed 
with visiting Senator Hagel Egypt's efforts to promote peace 
and reconciliation in Iraq and outlined some of the obstacles 
that stood in the way.  Mubarak stressed his dim view of the 
Shi'a and opined that its ties to Tehran and their 
"duplicitous" nature posed major complications.  On Syria, 
Mubarak recounted Egypt's past efforts to influence Bashar, 
and cautioned that public calls by the USG for regime change 
would be counterproductive.  On Israel-Palestine, Mubarak 
expressed confidence in Sharon and discussed Egypt's 
continuing efforts to temper Palestinian extremists.  He 
underlined that economic development and employment would be 
the keys to the stabilization of Gaza.  Mubarak provided a 
scathing assessment of Iran and its "extremist" new 
president, noting that he would not attend the December 7 
Islamic summit in Mecca, deliberately to avoid any encounters 
with President Ahmedinejad.  The Ambassador pressed Mubarak 
for greater Egyptian support for Europe's initiative with the 
IAEA to make progress toward stopping Iranian WMD production. 
 On Egypt's domestic situation, Mubarak asserted that he was 
unfazed by the Muslim Brotherhood's recent parliamentary 
gains, but recounted their "bloody" history.  On the economy, 
Mubarak expressed confidence in his economic reform cabinet 
and affirmed that job creation for youth, led by the private 
sector, was a key GOE goal.  End summary. 
 
2. (U) President Mubarak received Senator Chuck Hagel (R-NE) 
and Ambassador Ricciardone, at the Ittihadiyah Palace in 
Cairo on the morning of December 4.  Lou Ann Linehan, Senator 
Hagel's Chief of Staff, Rexon Ryu, Senator Hagel's Foreign 
Policy Advisor, Mischa Thompson, Foreign Policy Advisor to 
Senator Tom Carper, poloff (notetaker), and Soliman Awad, 
Spokesman for President Mubarak, also attended. 
 
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Iraq: "I Must Do Whatever I Can" 
-------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) Mubarak acknowledged Senator Hagel's thanks for his 
involvement in the late November conference on Iraqi 
reconciliation at the Arab League, stating "I must do 
whatever I can" to support progress in Iraq.  The President 
recalled that only his personal intervention in the recent 
conference proceedings broke through an initial frosty 
deadlock among the Iraqi participants.  Mubarak added that he 
had to provide personal assurances of his involvement in the 
conference before Prime Minister Ja'fari finally agreed to 
come from Baghdad. 
 
4. (C) The President made clear his view that the role of 
politicized Iraqi Shi'a Muslims severely complicated progress 
toward a solution in Iraq.  In Mubarak's view, the Shi'a were 
extremely difficult to deal with and given to deception.  The 
President noted the presence of significant Shi'a minorities 
in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, and the Shi'a majority in 
Bahrain, opining that all of these communities were subject 
to influence from Tehran. 
 
5. (C) On the outlook for a resolution to the continuing 
violence in Iraq, Mubarak recalled earlier advising President 
Bush that he should "forget all about democracy in Iraq," - 
the complexity of the country's competing ethnic, religious, 
and political interest groups precluded democracy, he 
believed.  In Mubarak's view, the only solution for Iraq 
would be the emergence of a "strong leader...tough but fair." 
 
 
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Syria 
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6. (C) Senator Hagel asked Mubarak for his assessment of 
whether Bashar was firmly in control of the SARG. Mubarak 
replied that Bashar "is in a difficult position."  He advised 
the U.S. not to make too much of Syria's ties with Iran, 
opining that the ties between the two states were in fact 
"not strong" - the Iranians were essentially untrustworthy. 
On the U.S. posture toward Syria in light of the Mehlis 
investigation and UNSC engagement, Mubarak urged that the 
U.S. avoid stating publicly that it sought "regime change" in 
Syria.  "This would work against you," and rally Arab public 
opinion around the SARG, the President asserted. "I have 
tried hard with Syria ever since Bashar took office," Mubarak 
stated.  "I advised Bashar that the world was changing and 
that Syria had to change with it." 
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Israel-Palestine Peace Process 
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7. (C) Senator Hagel thanked the President for Egypt's 
continuing strong support for progress in the 
Israeli-Palestinian peace process.  "Sharon is a strong 
leader," Mubarak affirmed, "the strongest since Begin." 
Mubarak also reminisced about his strong ties to Rabin and 
lamented how close he, Rabin, and Hafiz al-Asad had been 
toward reaching a peace between Israel and Syria.  In the 
end, Mubarak asserted, the sticking point was not full 
withdrawal from the Golan, which Israel accepted, but the 
establishment of full diplomatic ties, at which Asad balked. 
 
8. (C) On the current situation, Mubarak said stability in 
Gaza cannot be maintained unless Gazans can "enjoy the fruits 
of peace."  Economic development and jobs for Gaza's youth 
must be realized, the President asserted, or else they will 
revert to terror.  "We don't want Sharon to get nervous," 
Mubarak continued, and Egypt was working hard on Hamas, to 
get them to abandon terrorism, but "they are unreliable." 
"Do you know who created Hamas?  It was the Israelis!" 
Mubarak stated. 
 
9. (C) On the West Bank, the continued expansion of the 
separation wall was having a negative effect on the mentality 
of the people, Mubarak opined.  Nonetheless, the President 
continued, "we are working hard," and Egypt has good contacts 
with both the Palestinian and Israeli leaderships. 
 
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Iran 
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10. (C)  The President called attention to the 
untrustworthiness and duplicity of the regime in Tehran.  As 
one example, the President recalled a meeting he had held in 
Geneva approximately one year ago with President Khatemi. 
Mubarak suggested that renaming the Tehran street named after 
Sadat assassin Khalid Islambouli would be a confidence 
builder.  Instead, Ahmedinejad, then mayor of Teheran, had 
erected a large new billboard commemorating Islambouli and 
his "great deed." 
 
11. (C) Senator Hagel told the President that he had just 
heard from King Abdullah in Riyadh that he had received an 
emissary from Tehran dispatched to explore upgrading ties 
between Tehran and the KSA.  Mubarak said he was intrigued to 
hear this and would ask King Abdullah about it when he saw 
him during a brief visit to Saudi Arabia he was planning for 
December 8.  Mubarak also noted that he was declining to 
participate in the OIC summit in Saudi Arabia, on December 7, 
because he did not wish to meet President Ahmedinejad.  "The 
Saudis are very cautious...they know very well that the 
Iranians are dangerous," Mubarak stated. 
 
12. (C) Mubarak described Iran's new president as an 
"extremist," but advised the United States not to take too 
much public action against him, as this would work in his 
favor.  "Don't think of launching an attack, this would unite 
the people behind the President...This would be very much 
against U.S. interests in the region," Mubarak cautioned. 
 
13. (C) The Ambassador replied that we shared Mubarak's 
suspicions about Iran, and in particular regarding its 
apparent attempts to develop WMD.   The US was working with 
France, Germany, and even Russia at the IAEA, but evidently 
Egypt's MFA has some reservations about the utility of 
pressing them at the IAEA.  Egypt could provide more help to 
the current European initiative in the IAEA, the Ambassador 
added, "we'd like to count on Egypt's support."  In response, 
Mubarak said that Egypt was limited as to what it could say 
publicly.  All WMD was bad, he continued, and "fanatics will 
pick it up," if Egypt singles out Iran and ignores other WMD 
in the region.  "The back channel is the best way to make 
progress on this issue.  Do not use force." 
 
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Egypt's Internal Situation 
-------------------------- 
 
14. (C) Senator Hagel asked the President about the current 
legislative elections (which will conclude on December 7). 
Mubarak noted that the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) had so far 
secured 75 seats in the next People's Assembly (up from 16 in 
the outgoing PA) and predicted that they "may reach 85 to 90 
seats" when the elections conclude.  While some in the 
government were very worried by this development, Mubarak 
continued, he saw no cause for panic, recalling that the MB 
had held 95 seats in the People's Assembly as recently as 
1987.  "I don't worry about their seats but I worry about 
their intentions," the President stated.  The MB "may say 
nice things" from time to time, but "we know them very well," 
Mubarak said darkly, "we have known them since 1928.  "They 
killed the Prime Minister (Ahmed Maher in 1944), they killed 
a judge who tried them, they killed the Interior Minister, 
they tried to kill Nasser, and Sadat, who loved them very 
much and gave them freedom...they killed him too.  They have 
also tried to kill me several times." 
 
15. (C) Mubarak recalled an earlier visit to Saudi Arabia in 
which he and Omar Soliman had provided the Saudis specific 
information about "dangerous" Egyptians affiliated with the 
MB living and working in the Kingdom.  Mubarak also 
underlined links between Hamas and the MB, and implied that 
Egyptian MB were providing assistance and support to their 
Palestinian counterparts. 
 
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Egypt's Economy 
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16. (C) Senator Hagel asked the President for his views on 
Egypt's economic outlook. "We have good ministers," Mubarak 
said, naming in particular Finance Minister Boutros-Ghali and 
Trade Minister Rachid, currently visiting Washington. 
Mubarak asserted that creating jobs for Egypt's youth was his 
top priority, and cited the creation of new industrial zones, 
which benefited from state land grants and other privileges, 
especially in Upper Egypt, a region which had earlier been 
neglected, Mubarak noted. 
 
17. (C) Asked by the Senator about privatization, Mubarak 
said that the GOE was banking on the private sector as the 
key to Egypt's economic development - and employment 
creation.  The President recalled that privatization had 
originally been fiercely resisted, but allowed that it had 
now been proven a success.  Mubarak acknowledged that one 
challenge Egypt continued to face was in transforming social 
attitudes toward employment.  He recalled how the GOE had 
experienced difficulty in recruiting youth to take up good 
jobs at new industrial cities in the desert, as so many were 
unwilling to relocate outside of Cairo.  To illustrate the 
need for changing popular attitudes, he cited an exchange 
with a young woman working at a private sector textile 
factory in the Delta, who yearned for an "appointment" to a 
government job, even though the salary was much lower. 
 
18. (U) Senator Hagel did not clear this message before 
departing Egypt. 
 
 
RICCIARDONE