US embassy cable - 05CAIRO9053

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 009053 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC STAFF FOR SINGH 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, KDEM, EG, Ayman Nour 
SUBJECT: EGYPT: OPPOSITION LEADER NOUR REMANDED TO CUSTODY 
 
REF: CAIRO 8034 
 
Classified by Ambassador Francis Ricciardone for reasons 1.4 
(b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Judge Adel Abdel Salam Gom'a ordered opposition leader 
Ayman Nour remanded to custody on December 5 until a December 
10 hearing.  Amir Salim, Nour's lead defense attorney, told 
the media he presumed the detention order was a prequel to a 
conviction and prison sentence.  In late November meetings 
with poloff and Staffdel Grove, Nour had predicted that his 
conviction and imprisonment were imminent.  The Embassy has 
repeatedly conveyed its concerns, at both senior and working 
levels of the GOE.  The GOE maintains that Nour's case is a 
routine criminal matter.  Our public remarks need to 
communicate our concern that his detention sends the wrong 
message about democratic reform in Egypt. 
 
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Embassy Engagement 
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2. (C) In the past week, Embassy Cairo has raised the Nour 
case with the GOE, at both senior and working levels to 
convey concern that his incarceration would send a negative 
signal for democratic reform and could damage the 
relationship: 
 
-- During a December 5 meeting with Egyptian Intelligence 
Chief Omar Soliman (septel - notal), The Ambassador warned 
that Nour's imprisonment could have negative repercussions 
for Egypt's relationship with the U.S.  Imprisoning 
opposition leaders makes Egypt look weak, not strong.  The 
Ambassador also predicted to Soliman that if Nour is handed a 
jail sentence he will become an attraction "like the 
pyramids" for high profile USG visitors - an outcome likely 
to embarrass the GOE. 
 
-- On December 1, the Ambassador also cautioned Defense 
Minister Tantawi, on the margins of the annual Military 
Cooperation Council meetings, that Washington was watching 
the Ayman Nour trial and that a conviction and imprisonment 
would likely be perceived as political and create tensions in 
the bilateral relationship. 
 
-- Similarly, Nour's case came up during Staffdel Grove's 
December 1 meeting with four senior advisors to Defense 
Minister Tantawi.  Asked for his candid impressions of 
Egypt's progress on political reform, Grove told his Egyptian 
hosts that Washington had noted with concern recent trial of 
a prominent political dissident, adding that his conviction 
and imprisonment could have a negative impact on other 
aspects of the bilateral relationship, including the military 
assistance package that had just been under discussion. 
 
-- Also on December 1, in a meeting on other issues, the DCM 
raised the Ayman Nour case with Presidential Foreign Policy 
Advisor and Spokesman, Soliman Awad.  The DCM said the USG 
has no affinity for Nour, but a conviction and incarceration 
would draw criticism and fuel skepticism in Washington over 
Egypt,s political reforms.  Awad, visibly stiffening, 
replied that the Ayman Nour case is not an appropriate topic 
for U.S.-Egyptian bilateral relations.  Awad continued that 
Nour has received a fair trial with the "best lawyers money 
can buy."  He has been able to call witnesses and writes 
about their court testimony in his newspaper every day. 
Mubarak, he said, would never acknowledge linkage between 
Nour and U.S. interests.  He can tolerate criticism from the 
press and civil society but if Nour was swept into the 
discussion of the FTA, for example, Mubarak would simply tell 
Trade Minister Rashid to drop the FTA.  "I have been with 
this President a year; I have shown him the international 
press reports on Nour.  He always says that he is not 
interested.  He would just tell Rashid to drop it; it's not 
worth it." 
 
-- Separately, ECPO Minister-Counselor made similar points on 
the Nour case to the Assistant Foreign Minister for Legal 
Affairs during an early December meeting.  ECPO Counselor 
also cautioned a principal aide to Gamal Mubarak on December 
5 that Nour's conviction and imprisonment would almost 
inevitably complicate the bilateral relationship. 
 
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Our Public Reaction 
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3. (C) Nour has not yet been convicted, and an acquital, 
though unlikely, is still possible.  We will want to hold in 
reserve our strongest language for if and when he is 
convicted, but we should nonetheless go on the record as soon 
as possible with our concerns.  We recommend language (on an 
"if asked" basis) along the following lines: 
BEGIN TEXT 
 
-- We understand that the judge presiding over the Ayman Nour 
case ordered that Nour be remanded to custody pending a 
hearing on December 10. 
 
-- Nour's detention today raises serious concerns about the 
path of political reform in Egypt. 
 
-- Whatever the merits of this particular case, the 
imprisonment of a prominent and credible political opposition 
leader risks sending the wrong signal about democracy and 
freedom. 
 
-- We will withhold further comment pending a verdict. 
END TEXT 
 
Background: 
-- Ayman Nour won 8 percent of the vote in September's 
historic presidential election, the first time the Egyptian 
people had the opportunity to vote in a competitive 
presidential election. 
 
-- The Government of Egypt has stressed its desire to see a 
credible political opposition develop. 
 
 
RICCIARDONE