US embassy cable - 05TEGUCIGALPA2442

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEGUCIGALPA 002442 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA, WHA/PPC, WHA/USOAS, AND WHA/CEN 
NSC FOR DAN FISK 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2035 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, ECON, KCRM, PINR, HO 
SUBJECT: HONDURAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WEEKEND UPDATE: 
LOBO AND NATIONALISTS BEAT A DEAD HORSE - NO CONCESSION YET 
 
REF: TEGUCIGALPA 2438 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission James G. Williard; 
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary: While no official statements were made over 
the weekend declaring a President-elect, conversations did 
take place that initially led Post to believe that a 
concession by National Party presidential candidate Porfirio 
"Pepe" Lobo would be forthcoming later today, December 5. 
Furthermore, Liberal Party presidential candidate Manuel 
"Mel" Zelaya has quickly begun to form his cabinet of 
Ministers, which has raised eyebrows.  Continued National 
Party objections over the weekend and a Lobo statement 
mid-day December 5 that rejected the need to concede has 
tempered Post's optimism that this drama will end soon. 
However, late breaking news that the two candidates plan to 
meet privately tonight, December 5, may indicate that the 
impasse will shortly end.  End Summary. 
 
Ambassador Meets with President Maduro 
-------------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) On Saturday, December 3 former Honduran President 
Carlos Flores and National Party presidential candidate 
Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo phoned the Ambassador to let him know of 
Lobo's intentions to formally concede Monday, December 5. 
The fact that the call was made in tandem does add a level of 
credibility that it would otherwise not have assumed since 
Lobo made multiple, similar promises to the Ambassador on 
December 1.  The substance of the Lobo-Ambassador 
conversation was subsequently shared in a conference call 
with State/WHA and NSC. 
 
3. (C) The Ambassador had a lunch meeting with Honduran 
President Ricardo Maduro on Sunday, December 4.  Maduro 
admitted that the election results shocked him.  Maduro was 
clearly more focused on his post-GOH plans than the present. 
He mentioned that he is exploring the possibility of teaching 
at Georgetown University or University of Notre Dame and 
talked about continuing his work in Honduras by organizing 
current and former conservative leaders in the U.S., Latin 
America, and Europe to work on democracy in Central America. 
On an additional personal note, he mentioned that his 
marriage was in jeopardy and was likely heading toward a 
divorce soon. 
 
4. (C) Maduro reflected on his administration and the future 
Zelaya Administration.  He feels that Zelaya may be 
responsible on fiscal issues, but may also place blame with 
Maduro for the state of things at present.  Maduro wants an 
IMF team to certify partial results at the end of his 
Administration.  He also wants Congress to pass the draft 
telecommunications law and necessary CAFTA regulations. 
Maduro also shared that he thinks that Lobo is concerned 
about Mayor of Tegucigalpa Miguel Pastor fighting him for 
control of the National Party.  Maduro is seeking recognition 
of the positive parts of his legacy and continues to be 
concerned about visa revocations for corrupt Administration 
officials.  Ultimately, the lunch meeting was more about 
Maduro's own situation than the government or policies. 
President Maduro called the Ambassador the afternoon of 
December 5 sounding optimistic about a resolution to the 
ongoing electoral situation. 
 
Vote Count Slows; National Party Alleges Irregularities 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
5. (U) PolOff confirmed that the Supreme Electoral Tribunal's 
(TSE's) vote count remains virtually unchanged from the 
afternoon of Friday, December 2.  As of 10:00am on December 
5, the Liberal Party has 49.90 percent of the vote, or 
915,496 votes, and the National Party has 46.46 percent of 
the vote, or 846,886 votes, with 88.38 percent of the votes 
counted.  Lobo leads in only four of the 18 Departments, 
including Francisco Morazan (Tegucigalpa).  There are also 
121,716 null ballots and 50,310 blank ballots, both 
out-polling the three small party candidates who only have 
1-2 percent each. 
 
6. (SBU) On the morning of December 5, PolChief spoke with 
Peter Barwick of the Organization of American States' 
Electoral Observation Mission about the weekend discussions 
between the parties on the election.  As discussed in reftel, 
the National Party was complaining about the relatively high 
percentage of null votes.  The National Party was calling for 
a random review of these votes, although the Argentine 
election consultants maintain that there is no real 
correlation between null votes and a Zelaya lead.  In fact, 
the consultant said that the election tables with the highest 
numbers of null votes tended to be won by the National Party. 
 The National Party subsequently dropped the issue.  (Note: 
Post and the OAS EOM believe that the relatively high 
percentage of null votes is due to a protest by voters 
against the presidential candidates.  One Embassy OAS 
observer reported seeing a presidential ballot with the word 
"null" in Spanish written under each of the five candidates. 
End Note.) 
 
7. (SBU) The National Party also has concerns over a supposed 
problem of excess ballots at certain election tables (as 
discussed in reftel).  Although the Argentine election 
consultants again report that there is no pattern to the 
extra ballots, the National Party wants further investigation 
into the approximately 814 tables that had five or more 
excess ballots than the TSE said they should have. An even 
larger number, approximately 1,200 tables, had five or more 
less ballots than the TSE said they should have.  Again, Post 
and the OAS EOM believe the likely explanation for these 
discrepancies are that the TSE sent too few or too many 
ballots to these electoral tables (as reported by Embassy OAS 
observers) than any other scenario, although some election 
table mathematical errors are likely as well.  National Party 
leaders continue to claim there was a scheme by the Liberal 
Party to in effect stuff numerous ballot boxes with extra 
ballots brought by individual voters to affect each electoral 
table at the margins.  The source of some of this information 
is supposedly a man jailed in San Pedro Sula on an unrelated 
issue who claims that extra presidential ballots were printed 
by a company in Guatemala that gave them to the Liberal Party 
for use. 
 
8. (C) The National Party, through the TSE's Political 
Consultative Commission, requested that the TSE and the 
parties conduct a review at the TSE warehouse of electoral 
materials at 150 electoral tables selected by the Argentine 
experts (75 with too many ballots and 75 with too few 
ballots), particularly to look at the number of total 
ballots.  According to the OAS, after considerable back and 
forth between the parties and the TSE, in which the Christian 
Democrats realigned with the National Party, the UD stood 
opposed, PINU was agnostic, and the Liberal Party 
flip-flopped, TSE President Aristedes Mejia said that such an 
idea was not contemplated in the electoral law and the 
discussion ended.  PolOff was informed the morning of 
December 5 that the Minister of Defense in fact received a 
phone call December 3 informing him that the TSE warehouse 
might be attacked by political party supporters.  Since the 
call, 20 additional special forces have been stationed there, 
though none report any suspicious activity.  The extra forces 
will be released by mid-day December 5, though military will 
continue to monitor the warehouse until two to three days 
after a president-elect has been announced.  PolOff confirmed 
that the TSE warehouse is now sorting through the remaining 
electoral materials, but that all existing vote counts have 
been pulled out and forwarded to the TSE tabulation center. 
9. (C) Despite the closing window for initial legal 
challenges of events that took place on Election Day, the OAS 
EOM reports that National Party leader David Matamoros 
threatened a possible challenge of the elections to the 
Supreme Court (which the Nationals control 8-7 over the 
Liberals).  The OAS EOM is scheduled to end December 6. 
PolChief made clear to the OAS that Post wanted the OAS to 
stay until there was a resolution of the outstanding 
presidential election.  Matamoros told PolChief December 5 
that with the failure to conduct the review of the 150 
electoral tables the situation was roughly the same with no 
movement toward a Lobo concession, although he indicated Lobo 
and Zelaya may meet privately to discuss the situation. 
 
Unofficial President-Elect Begins to Name His Cabinet 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
10. (C) PolChief spoke December 3 with Liberal Party 
presidential campaign manager and future Minister of Finance 
Hugo Noe Pino to confirm rumored cabinet appointments.  Pino 
said the following nominations were official: 
- Minister of the Foreign Affairs - Jorge Arturo Reina (Note: 
Zelaya informed the Ambassador late December 5 that Reina 
would not/not be named Foreign Minister - see para. 12.  End 
Note.) 
- Minister of Education - Rafael Pineda Ponce 
- Minister of Agriculture - Hector Hernandez Amador 
- Minister of Public Security - Alvaro Romero 
- Minister of Health - Orisson Velasquez 
 
Noe Pino said the next two were very likely: 
- Central Bank President - Gabriela Nunez 
- Minister of Commerce - Yani Rosenthal Hidalgo 
 
11. (U) Others that have been named in the press as new 
ministers are: 
- Minister of the Honduran Fund for Social Investment - 
Marlon Guillermo Lara 
- Minister of Housing - Hector Briceno 
- Minister of Public Works - Jose Roasio Bonano 
 
(Note:  Please see forthcoming septels with biographic 
information on probable new ministers.  End Note.) 
12. (SBU) The NGO Center for Investigation and Promotion of 
Human Rights (CIPRODEH) has denounced the appointment of 
Alvaro Romero saying that it is a clear "backsliding of 
demilitarization", given that he is a retired military 
general.  During the Carlos Roberto Reina Administration, 
Romero instigated civil control of the police. 
 
13 (C) At Washington's request, PolChief made it clear to Noe 
Pino December 3 that the Embassy and Washington had great 
concern about the appointment of Jorge Arturo Reina as the 
Minister of Foreign Affairs due to his background as a 
Communist with strong anti-U.S. views.  Noe Pino said he 
understood why the USG would be concerned about Reina, but 
said that the USG should know that Zelaya intends to have a 
centrist, practical, non-ideological government (see septel 
for details).  Ambassador reiterated the same points in a 
December 5 morning phone conversation with Zelaya, in which 
Ambassador emphasized that as someone currently ineligible 
for a visa, Reina could not even travel to the U.S. at 
present.  Zelaya said he did not know that Reina was a 
problem.  Ambassador emphasized that Zelaya should not bring 
Reina to the planned December 6 meeting with U/S Hughes and 
WHA A/S Shannon in San Pedro Sula on the margins of their 
visit to Honduras.  Zelaya phoned the Ambassador late the 
afternoon of December 5 to say that Reina would not/not be 
the Foreign Minister.  Zelaya also said that he would be 
meeting with Lobo tonight to discuss the ongoing electoral 
situation. 
 
Lobo Holding Out; Zelaya/Lobo Meeting Scheduled 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
14. (C) Comment: The waiting game continues in an odd sort of 
manner; everyone knows who the next President of Honduras is, 
and everyone is starting to act that way; everyone, that is, 
except the candidate (and party) that lost.  Lobo and his 
party faithful seem to be conducting a deliberate strategy to 
delay the inevitable, possibly while trying to negotiate with 
the Liberals on a variety of issues.  Zelaya, however, did 
not sound like he had been playing that game directly, 
telling the Ambassador on December 5 that he had not spoken 
to Lobo in days.  With Lobo stating publicly December 5 that 
he is not obligated to accept defeat, and the Liberals 
planning a possible protest march from Liberal Party 
headquarters to the Casa Presidencial for December 7 to 
protest the National Party's tactics and the TSE slowdown 
(unless either one show progress, according to Noe Pino's 
December 5 comments to PolChief), Post is no longer 
optimistic that this drama will end soon.  Hopefully, the 
planned direct Zelaya-Lobo meeting the evening of December 5 
can break the logjam.  End Comment. 
Ford