US embassy cable - 05ALMATY4301

UNCLAS  ALMATY 004301 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KZ, 2005 Election 
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN:  PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WRAP-UP 
 
1. (SBU) Summary:  The CEC announced on December 5, twelve 
hours after the polls closed, that President Nazarbayev had 
been reelected with 91% of the vote.  Three different exit 
polls showed the President winning by wide margins, the 
largest with 83% support.  The OSCE issued a preliminary 
report on December 5 noting that while there had been some 
improvements in the administration of the election in the 
run-up to the voting, the presidential election did not meet 
a number of OSCE commitments and other international 
standards.  Zharmakhan Tuyakbay announced that he would 
contest the results in court, but would not organize 
demonstrations.  The Embassy fielded 25 observers in six 
cities.  Our observations generally tracked with the OSCE's 
preliminary assessment, in that observers witnessed a 
variety of relatively minor violations but did not note 
systematic egregious flaws in the voting process.  End 
summary. 
 
Stats and Facts on the Voting Process 
------------------------------------- 
 
2. (U) The campaign officially ended at midnight on Friday, 
December 2.  The CEC announced on Friday that 1634 observers 
and journalists had been accredited (OSCE/ODIHR - 474 
observers, CIS - 420 observers, 26 foreign governments - 226 
observers, 8 international organizations - 108 observers; 
407 journalists from 27 countries).  There were 9597 polling 
stations around the country, 15% of which offered the 
"Sailau" electronic voting system.  Approximately 31.8% of 
the country's 8.7 million voters had the opportunity to vote 
electronically. 
 
Security Concerns 
----------------- 
 
3. (SBU) Repeated ill-advised statements by the authorities 
about the potential for violence and provocations by the 
opposition spurred significant public concern.  Rumors of 
burning cars, opposition demonstrations, and the suicide of 
Makpal Zhunusova, Nurkadilov's widow, swirled in Almaty on 
Friday and Saturday, but proved unfounded.  The police in 
Almaty reportedly received 13 anonymous reports of incidents 
on Friday evening, all of which were false. 
 
4. (U) On Saturday the Almaty procurator issued a public 
statement calling on citizens not to believe rumors about 
mass unrest.  The procurator stated that journalist Sergey 
Duvanov had been questioned about his December 1 Internet 
posting regarding rumors that law enforcement authorities 
would stage a provocation. 
 
Last-Minute Pressure on Observers 
--------------------------------- 
 
5. (U) On December 3, the Young Professionals Society (YPS, 
Pavel Morozov) and the League of Voters of Kazakhstan (LVK, 
Natalya Chumakova, wife of opposition leader Petr Svoik) 
issued a joint statement regarding alleged pressure from 
executive branch and law enforcement officials.  YPS claimed 
that anonymous people were standing outside their Almaty HQ 
on Saturday offering their election observers $30 not to 
participate.  YPS alleged that people identifying themselves 
as being with the KNB had called the homes of some observers 
and spoken with their parents.  YPS said it lost about 100 
observers as a result.  YPS also claimed that some observers 
living in university dorms had been informed that they would 
be forbidden from leaving on December 4.  The owner of YPS's 
rented Almaty office tried unsuccessfully to evict them on 
December 2. 
 
6. (SBU) The statement also alleged that all regional LVK 
coordinators had experienced pressure from the authorities; 
in four cities this resulted in LVK members giving 
statements condemning Chumakova.  LVK has ceased its 
activities in North Kazakhstan and Kyzlorda oblasts 
entirely.  An OSCE EMO representative told POEC chief on 
December 2 that the EOM believed that pressure was being 
applied to LVK in every oblast.  Three regional LVK 
representatives had told the OSCE of official pressure, 
including threats of "problems at university" against the 
daughter of the Kyzlorda representative.  The OSCE knew of 
at least four that had publicly condemned Chumakova in the 
past few days, presumably also as the result of pressure. 
 
Kazakhstanis Go to the Polls 
---------------------------- 
 
7. (SBU) Post deployed election observation teams to cover 
the vote in Almaty, Astana, Atyrau, Ust-Kamenogorsk, 
Semipalatinsk, and Shu.  Five teams focused on Almaty's 
outlying districts.  Eleven Embassy representatives were 
accredited through the OSCE, and 14 directly with the CEC. 
 
8. (SBU) Polls opened officially at 0700 local time and 
closed at 2000.   Voting throughout the day generally 
proceeded smoothly.  There were few reports of problems with 
poll openings. Crowd control appeared to be an issue at 
several stations.  The surge in the number of voters, from 
late morning to early afternoon, appeared to overwhelm some 
commissions. 
 
9. (SBU) Use of electronic voting appeared to be lower than 
in the 2004 parliamentary elections, despite the fact that 
the modified system appeared to be easier to use and more 
reliable this year.  The CEC announced that as of 18:00, 
only 12.14% of voters who had the option of voting 
electronically had chosen to do so. 
 
10. (SBU) In general, Embassy observers did not witness 
widespread gross procedural violations on election day. 
Problems witnessed during the actual voting included: 
 
-- Discrepancies in voter lists:  The lists appeared to be 
more accurate than in 2004, and there was a clear procedure 
in place to deal with those not on the list.  The response 
of precinct officials varied.  Some readily added voters to 
the lists, with or without documentary proof of residence; 
others simply turned voters away without suggesting ways to 
resolve the problem. 
 
-- Although formed in accordance with the law, the seven- 
person precinct election commissions had very few 
representatives of opposition parties. 
 
-- Although access to polling stations for domestic and 
international observers was generally not an issue, there 
were several complaints of being forced to stay in a defined 
area that was too far from the commission officials to see 
the blank ballots or voter lists. 
 
-- In some villages, Embassy observers noted a strong 
attempt to get individuals to polling stations.  One village 
administration was observed busing individuals to the 
polling station. 
 
-- Embassy observers witnessed one example of an individual 
voting twice, for himself and on behalf of a relative who 
"couldn't come to the polls." 
 
-- While there were few reports of unauthorized individuals 
in polling stations, Embassy observers noted a Ministry of 
Justice official in one precinct.  The official explained 
that she was there to help resolve registration problems. 
The official did not appear to be taking an active role in 
the voting process, however, and it was not clear whether 
her presence represented a violation of election laws. 
 
-- There were a few reports of pro-presidential observers 
and local officials giving instructions to the polling 
officials. 
 
-- There were a few instances of campaign materials in or 
near polling stations.  In one Almaty precinct, Embassy 
observers saw a 10-meter banner at a veterans' home bearing 
a quote from Nazarbayev about assuring a decent living for 
the elderly generation. 
 
The Vote Count 
-------------- 
 
11. (SBU) Polls across Kazakhstan closed at 20:00.  While 
some "closed" precincts such as hospitals and military 
districts closed early in the day after all registered 
voters had voted, Embassy observers did not report any 
"open" precincts deviating from the standard 20:00 closing 
time.  (Local electoral officials have the authority to 
extend voting until 22:00.)  Many stations completed the 
vote count relatively quickly and without dispute.  There 
 
were reports of confusion during the vote count in several 
other stations, however, apparently exacerbated by the 
exhaustion of PEC officials who started work as early as 
3:00 am in precincts with electronic voting.  One station in 
Atyrau was unable to account for 42 ballots; after giving 
protocols to observers, PEC officials continued to review 
the results for three hours and were believed to have 
changed the figures before submitting the protocols to the 
district election commission (DEC).  In one Almaty precinct, 
the number of votes exceeded the number of signatures on the 
voter list by 14.  A PEC in Ust-Kamenogorsk worked until 3 
am to reconcile what at first appeared to be 60 extra 
ballots. 
 
 
Preliminary Results 
------------------- 
 
12. (U) At 10:00 am on Monday, the CEC announced preliminary 
results.  With 77% turnout nationwide and 9546 of 9580 
precincts having reported in, the CEC announced that 
President Nazarbayev had received 91.01% of the vote. 
Zharmakhan Tuyakbay (For a Just Kazakhstan) received 6.64%, 
Alikhan Baymenov (Ak Zhol) - 1.65%, Yerasyl Abylkasimov 
(People's Communist Party) - .38%, and Mels Yeleusizov 
(Tagibat green movement) - .32%. 
 
13. (SBU) An exit poll commissioned by the International 
Republican Institute (IRI), conducted by the Gallup 
Organization/Baltic Surveys in coordination with the Center 
for Social and Political Research, indicated that Nazarbayev 
received 83.2% of the vote.  Tuyakbay was shown in second 
place with 9.9%, Baymenov in third with 3.2%.  Yeleusizov 
and Abylkasimov received 1.4% and 1.2% respectively.  (The 
margin of error was 1%.  Pollsters interviewed 23,780 voters 
at 283 polling stations in all 14 oblasts, Almaty, and 
Astana.)  The Kazrating Agency, which conducted an exit poll 
only in Almaty, reported that out of 4,877 respondents, 
78.3% voted to re-elect Nazarbayev and 14% voted for 
Tuyakbay.  According to an exit poll conducted by the 
Kazakhstan Institute of Social-Economic Information and 
Forecasting, over 77% voted to re-elect Nazarbayev, while 
over 13% voted for opposition candidate Tuyakbay. 
 
Preliminary OSCE Assessment 
--------------------------- 
 
14. (U) At a December 5 press conference in Astana, the OSCE 
Election Observation Mission (EOM) announced that despite 
improvements in election administration in the pre-election 
period, the December 4 presidential elections did not meet a 
number of OSCE commitments and other international 
standards.  Bruce George, the Head of the OSCE Parliamentary 
Assembly delegation, called candidate registration "mostly 
inclusive," giving voters a choice but cited media bias in 
favor of the incumbent, harassment of opposition campaigns, 
and pressure on student voters as "significant 
shortcomings."  Ambassador Audrey Glover, the Head of the 
OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Mission, criticized 
Kazakhstani authorities for not providing a "level playing 
field" despite assurances from President Nazarbayev that the 
elections would be free and fair.  The gap between the 
promise and reality, Glover added, demonstrated a lack of 
political will to carry out reforms that are necessary if 
Kazakhstan is to hold genuine democratic elections.  (Note: 
ODIHR has already posted the preliminary report at 
http://www.osce.org/odihr/.) 
 
15. (U) In taking questions from the press, the OSCE team 
insisted that the point of the observation mission is to 
comment on the elections process, not to render a judgment 
on the validity of the elections.  The OSCE also maintained 
that there is no double standard between observation of 
elections in western countries and those in the former 
Soviet Union.  Members of the delegation referred questions 
of Kazakhstan's readiness to become OSCE Chairman-in-Office 
to foreign ministers meeting in Ljubljana December 5-6 for 
the OSCE ministerial. 
 
16. (U) The EOM included 46 experts and long-term observers 
and 411 short-term observers from a total of 43 member 
states.  OSCE observers observed voting in approximately 
2000 polling stations and counting in 165.  OSCE observers 
also witnessed tabulation of results in 112 DECs. 
 
Other Observer Assessments 
-------------------------- 
 
17. (U) On December 5, the CIS election monitoring mission 
described Kazakhstan's presidential election as "free, open, 
and legitimate." 
 
18. (U) The Republican Network of Independent Monitors 
(RNIM) reported systematic violations including incorrect 
use of the e-voting system, incomplete voters' lists, and 
interference in the vote process by PEC members.  More than 
2,000 RNIM monitors were sent out to observe polling 
stations in 11 regions. 
 
19. (U) The European Network of Election Monitoring 
Organizations (ENEMO), working under the auspices of NDI, 
issued a preliminary report on December 5 assessing that the 
elections did not conform to a number of international 
standards.  ENEMO cited violations during the campaign 
period and on election day, including limitations on the 
rights and freedoms of voters and the unequal treatment of 
presidential candidates in the Kazakhstani press.  ENEMO 
noted that transparency was helped by the CEC's informative 
web site, and that election commissions at all levels 
addressed observers' concerns quickly on election day. 
ENEMO reported that voting was marred by problems with e- 
voting and instances of coercion of students to vote.  ENEMO 
fielded 30 short-term observers and 10 long-term observers; 
they observed voting and tabulation at more than 310 polling 
stations. 
 
Tuyakbay's Reaction 
------------------- 
 
20. (U) On December 5, Tuyakbay, with fellow FJK members at 
his side, held a press conference at "True Ak Zhol" 
headquarters to brief journalists on what FJK called "major 
systematic violations" on election day.  Tuyakbay stated 
that not only did Nazarbayev fail to deliver a promised 
"free and fair" election, he failed even to create an 
illusion of one.  Tuyakbay alleged that the government 
pressured students to vote for Nazarbayev.  He claimed that 
lecturers escorted students to polling stations and paid 
students for voting.  Tuyakbay also alleged that PECs were 
instructed to add names to the voter lists and that the 
opposition only received 20% of the protocols from polling 
stations.  He said that he would protest the results through 
the court system, but would not organize street 
demonstrations. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
21. (SBU) As the OSCE noted in its preliminary assessment, 
Kazakhstan has clearly made progress in the mechanics of 
conducting an election in an orderly and transparent 
fashion.  The fact that Nazarbayev received such an 
unexpectedly high percentage of the vote has raised concerns 
about the misuse of administrative resources during the 
campaign period and the accuracy of the vote counting and 
tabulation process, however.  The release of precinct-by- 
precinct results, which the CEC promised within 24 hours of 
voting, will paint a clearer picture of the overall process. 
 
ORDWAY