US embassy cable - 02ROME5937

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 005937 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FROM U.S. MISSION IN ROME 
 
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA FOR AMBASSADOR BRAZEAL AND USAID 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        ROME  05937  01 OF 02  111640Z 
ACTING DIRECTOR PARK 
USDA/FAS NAIROBI FOR FRED KESSEL AND USAID REDSO 
STATE FOR A/S PRM DEWEY, A/S IO HOLMES AND AF/E 
USAID FOR AA/DCHA WINTER, D/DCHA/FFP LLANDIS 
USDA/FAS FOR MCHAMBLISS, RTILSWORTH AND LREICH 
NSC FOR JWDORKEN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID, AORC, PREF, EAGR, EU, ER, ET, AORC, PREF, EAGR, EU, ER, ET, NL, WFP, UN, NL    EAID, WFP, UN 
SUBJECT: DUTCH QUESTIONS ON FOOD CRISIS IN THE HORN OF 
AFRICA 
 
REF: (A) THE HAGUE 3457 
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SUMMARY 
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1. USMISSION PROVIDES A RESPONSE TO QUESTIONS RAISED IN REF 
A, RELATED TO THE LOCAL AVAILABIITY OF FOOD RESOURCES FOR 
LOCAL/REGIONAL PURCHASE IN THE HORN OF AFRICA AND THE FOOD 
AID PIPELINE FOR ETHIOPIA IN EARLY 2003. END SUMMARY. 
 
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QUESTION: WHAT IS THE AVAILABILITY OF FOOD FOR 
LOCAL/REGIONAL PURCHASE FOR FOOD AID IN THE HORN OF AFRICA? 
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2. PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY THE FAO/WFP MISSION PRESENTLY 
UNDERWAY SHOW A 25 PERCENT DECLINE IN NATIONAL "MEHER" (MAIN 
GROWING SEASON) CEREAL AND PULSE PRODUCTION FROM LAST YEAR 
TO THIS YEAR IN ETHIOPIA, RESULTING IN AN ESTIMATED TOTAL 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        ROME  05937  01 OF 02  111640Z 
CEREAL AND PULSE PRODUCTION OF 8.95 MILLION MT, A 21 PERCENT 
DECLINE COMPARED WITH AVERAGE PRODUCTION. BASED ON THESE 
ESTIMATES AND AFTER MAKING FURTHER ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT 
BEGINNING AND ENDING STOCKS, 2003 "BELG" (MINOR GROWING 
SEASON) PRODUCTION, SEED REQUIREMENTS AND POST-HARVEST 
LOSSES, COMMERCIAL IMPORTS AND EXPORTS, IT IS PROBABLE THAT 
THERE WILL BE A CEREALS AND PULSES DEFICIT OF ABOUT 2.5 
MILLION MT IN ETHIOPIA IN 2003. GIVEN OVERALL DECLINE IN THE 
PRODUCTION OF CEREALS IN THE COUNTRY, PRICES CAN BE EXPECTED 
TO FURTHER INCREASE BEFORE THE BELG HARVEST IN JUNE. 
 
3. IN ERITREA, THE FAO/WFP MISSION FORECASTS A CEREALS 
HARVEST OF 74,000 MTS, NEARLY 60 PERCENT BELOW THE AVERAGE 
OF THE LAST TEN YEARS. IN SUDAN, AS PER FAO, PROSPECTS FOR 
2002 CROPS, NOW BEING HARVESTED, ARE GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE. 
 
4. THE GENERAL CONCLUSION IS THAT, GIVEN THE SUBSTANTIAL 
GRAIN DEFICIT ANTICIPATED IN 2003, MOST OF THE FOOD AID 
REQUIRED WILL HAVE TO BE IMPORTED FROM EXTERNAL SOURCES. 
DONORS ARE FREE TO EXPLORE POSSIBLE AVAILABILITY ELSEWHERE 
IN THE GREATER HORN OF AFRICA. IT IS UNDERSTOOD THAT THE 
WORLD FOOD PROGRAM AND THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION PLAN TO 
CONDUCT IN THE NEAR FUTURE A LOCAL CEREAL AVAILABILITY STUDY 
IN ETHIOPIA TO ASCERTAIN THE MAGNITUDE (IF ANY) OF CEREALS 
FOOD AID AVAILABLE LOCALLY, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE 
AVOIDANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT PRICE IMPACT ON LOCAL MARKETS. 
 
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QUESTION: WILL THE FOOD GAP BE SUFFICIENTLY COVERED BY 
DONORS THROUGH JANUARY 2003? 
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                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 04        ROME  05937  01 OF 02  111640Z 
 
5. IN ETHIOPIA, OUT OF A TOTAL OF OVER 897,000 MT FOOD 
ASSISTANCE REQUIRED IN 2002, ONLY ABOUT 581,000 MT, OR 65 
PERCENT, WAS OBTAINED FROM DONORS, INCLUDING A CONTRIBUTION 
OF 47,600 MT BY THE ETHIOPIAN GOVERNMENT (GFDRE). DONOR 
RESPONSE TO THE 2002 APPEAL INCREASED FROM AN AVERAGE OF 46 
PERCENT OF NEEDS DURING JANUARY-JUNE, TO 69 PERCENT DURING 
JULY-DECEMBER. CARRYOVER PLEDGES FROM 2002 ALLOCATIONS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 70,000 MT. THIS IS ONLY SUFFICIENT TO COVER 64 
PERCENT OF 109,000 MT REQUIRED IN JANUARY 2003. 
 
6. WITH 2003 FIRST QUARTER NEEDS ESTIMATED AT NEARLY 411,000 
MT (MONTHLY REQUIREMENTS EXCEEDING 100,000 MT THROUGH JULY), 
FOOD ASSISTANCE IS URGENTLY REQUIRED TO PREVENT A BREAK IN 
THE ETHIOPIA FOOD AID PIPELINE. 
 
7. EQUALLY WORRISOME ARE THE CURRENTLY LOW STOCK LEVELS IN 
THE NATIONAL EMERGENCY FOOD SECURITY RESERVE (EFSR), 
ESTABLISHED IN THE 1980S IN ORDER TO BRIDGE THE PERIOD 
BETWEEN FOOD AID PLEDGES AND FOOD AID ARRIVALS. A FIRM DONOR 
PLEDGE OF FOOD AID GRAIN ALLOWS THE EFSR TO RELEASE A 
CORRESPONDING VOLUME FOR RAPID DISTRIBUTION BY THE GFDRE'S 
DISASTER PREVENTION AND PREPAREDNESS COMMISSION (DPPC) AND 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
                           UNCLASSIFIED     PTQ7025 
 
PAGE 01        ROME  05937  02 OF 02  111641Z 
ACTION IO-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AF-00    AGRE-00  AID-00   AMAD-00  CIAE-00 
      COME-00  CTME-00  INL-00   USNW-00  WHA-00   SRPP-00  EAP-00 
      EB-00    EUR-00   E-00     UTED-00  VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00 
      LAB-01   VCE-00   DCP-01   NSAE-00  NSCE-00  OES-00   OIC-02 
      OMB-01   IRM-00   STR-00   TEST-00  TRSE-00  USIE-00  EPAE-00 
      ECA-00   PRM-00   DRL-02   SAS-00     /007W 
                  ------------------162B2D  111822Z /38 
P 111503Z DEC 02 
FM AMEMBASSY ROME 
TO AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE PRIORITY 
SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7281 
INFO AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 
AMEMBASSY ASMARA 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 
EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE 
AMEMBASSY TOKYO 
USEU BRUSSELS 3000 
USMISSION GENEVA 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
 
UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 02 ROME 005937 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FROM U.S. MISSION IN ROME 
 
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA FOR AMBASSADOR BRAZEAL AND USAID 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        ROME  05937  02 OF 02  111641Z 
ACTING DIRECTOR PARK 
USDA/FAS NAIROBI FOR FRED KESSEL AND USAID REDSO 
STATE FOR A/S PRM DEWEY, A/S IO HOLMES AND AF/E 
USAID FOR AA/DCHA WINTER, D/DCHA/FFP LLANDIS 
USDA/FAS FOR MCHAMBLISS, RTILSWORTH AND LREICH 
NSC FOR JWDORKEN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS:     EAID, AORC, WFP, UN, PREF, EAGR, EU, ER, ET, NL 
SUBJECT: DUTCH QUESTIONS ON FOOD CRISIS IN THE HORN OF 
AFRICA 
 
NON-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS (NGOS); THIS "LOAN" FROM THE 
EFSR IS REPAID WHEN THE NEWLY PLEDGED FOOD AID ARRIVES IN 
COUNTRY. 
8. AT PRESENT, THE EFSR HAS ONLY ABOUT 103,000 MT OUT OF A 
TOTAL RESERVE STOCK LEVEL OF 405,000 MT. UNLESS REPAYMENTS 
OF OUTSTANDING LOANS AND DELIVERY OF NEWLY PLEDGED FOOD AID 
ARE MADE AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE, FOOD AID DISTRIBUTIONS WILL 
BE DISRUPTED, RATIONS WILL BE REDUCED OR DISTRIBUTIONS WILL 
BE HALTED ALTOGETHER. 
 
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COMMENT 
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9. THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFDRE AND THE UN IS THAT THERE 
SHOULD BE AN IMMEDIATE PLEDGING AND DISPATCH OF SIGNIFICANT 
QUANTITIES OF FOOD AID. LOCAL PURCHASES, WHILE IN THEORY AN 
ATTRACTIVE OPTION, WILL NOT INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF CEREALS 
IN COUNTRY - AND THE PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENTS INDICATE MAJOR 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
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CEREAL PRODUCTION SHORTFALLS IN ETHIOPIA, ERITREA AND SUDAN. 
IN SHORT, ACTIONS TAKEN NOW BY THE GFDRE AND DONOR AGENCIES 
WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THESE PRE-FAMINE CONDITIONS CAN BE 
MITIGATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS -- OR DEVELOP INTO A 
FULL-FLEDGED FAMINE.  HALL 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
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 2002ROME05937 - Classification: UNCLASSIFIED