US embassy cable - 05CARACAS3662

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 003662 
 
SIPDIS 
 
BRUSSELS FOR USEU 
HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
FOR FRC LAMBERT 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/01/2020 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, VE 
SUBJECT: VENEZUELA POLITICAL UPDATE: DECEMBER 5 
 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT R. DOWNES FOR 1.4 (D) 
 
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Summary 
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1.  (C)  After most opposition parties pulled out of the 
process, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez' Fifth Republic 
Movement (MVR) and its allies swept the December 4 National 
Assembly elections, according to preliminary results reported 
by the GOV.  The MVR received more than two-thirds of the 167 
seats, and GOV officials listed the rest of the parties with 
seats--all pro-GOV--as alleged proof of the "plural" new 
legislature.  Venezuelan electoral watchdog Sumate continues 
to report procedural irregularities, the chief of which 
concerns GOV officials trying to coerce people to vote.  The 
Spanish parliamentary delegations also apparently had strong 
concerns regarding the election process.  The latest 
announcement of the National Electoral Council (CNE) put the 
abstention rate at 75 percent; opposition figures have 
alleged much higher figures.  OAS delegation leader Ruben 
Perina told reporters election day the process was proceeding 
normally but refused to comment on reported problems.  The 
key question remains how the European Union (EU) and 
Organization of American States (OAS) observation missions 
will publicly assess the election process.  End summary. 
 
2.  (C)  Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez' Fifth Republic 
Movement (MVR) party and its allies swept the December 4 
National Assembly elections, according to preliminary results 
announced in an official GOV press release.  The MVR received 
114 of the 167 National Assembly seats, improving on its 
previous representation of 69 deputies.  The new total gives 
the MVR two seats more than the two-thirds of the legislature 
necessary to alter the constitution and pass organic laws. 
The party receiving the second highest total was pro-Chavez 
Podemos, with 18 seats, Podemos spokesmen claimed to 
reporters December 5.  Patria Para Todos, another Chavista 
party, apparently secured 11 seats.  The pro-GOV clone party 
Union of Electoral Winners and other local, indigenous, and 
minor parties sympathetic to the GOV received the rest of the 
167 seats.  Willian Lara, director of the MVR national 
tactical command, recited on air late December 4 a host of 
little-known pro-GOV parties that would receive seats as 
evidence of the "plurality" of the new National Assembly. 
Several other GOV ministers also publicly proclaimed the 
fairness of the election. 
 
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Reported Problems 
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3.  (C)  Venezuelan electoral watchdog Sumate's co-director 
Alejandro Plaz announced December 4 that 24 percent of the 
complaints Sumate received concerned the GOV coercing people 
to vote.  Current opposition National Assembly deputy Pedro 
Diaz Blum told poloff December 4 Carabobo State government 
officials told him they had been threatened with dismissal 
for not voting.  DAO sources reported that Venezuelan 
officials and the military were trying to intimidate people 
into voting (IIR SEPTEL).  PDVSA workers in Zulia State told 
poloff they were instructed to vote or not bother to return 
to work on Monday.  Another complaint Plaz listed was the use 
of GOV vehicles to ransport voters to the polls.  Sumate 
co-director Maria Corina Machado claimed on air the night of 
December 4 that over a million people--one-third of the total 
voters--had cast their votes after 4:00 PM, when polls were 
initially scheduled to close. 
 
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Abstention 
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4.  (C)  Announced abstention rates have varied.  The MVR 
initially reported 67 percent had abstained from voting, but 
the CNE later raised the figure to 75 percent, presumably as 
more votes were counted.  A Smartmatic official told poloff 
the night of December 4 abstention was 70 percent. 
Opposition sources, meanwhile, have alleged that abstention 
rates were much higher.  Sumate, for example, claimed its 
review of participation at a statistically valid set of 
polling places revealed an 82 percent rate, according to 
press reports.  Salas Roemer of Projecto Venezuela indicated 
that according to his pollster, non-voters were at 92 percent 
at 4:00 PM.  Venamcham's survey noted that absenteeism was 85 
percent with a third of the votes cast as either null or 
blank. 
 
5.  (C)  The GOV is arguing that the announced rates are 
consistent with historic norms.  Interior Minister Jesse 
Chacon said opposition party Accion Democratica received a 
parliamentary majority with 11 percent of the national vote 
in 1998, although he somewhat disingenuously failed to report 
the percentage representing the national turnout.  According 
to press reports, the highest abstention on record with the 
CNE was a rate of 76.2 percent recorded during the 2000 local 
elections.  During the 2000 National Assembly elections, only 
43.7 percent of the electoral registry did not vote, 
according to CNE statistics. 
 
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Observer Statements 
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6.  (C)  OAS delegation leader Ruben Perina told Globovision 
reporters on election day that the process was proceeding 
"normally and peacefully" but brushed off questions about the 
level of participation and reported problems, saying the OAS 
was still collecting data.  (Note:  Globovision was airing 
its broadcast December 4 on a one-hour delay, apparently to 
give itself time to self-censor material the GOV would 
declare objectionable.)  Both the OAS and EU observer 
missions are expected to make official statements on December 
6.  Roberto Cuellar, director of the umbrella organization 
for CAPEL, the organization contracted by the CNE to audit 
the electoral registry, criticized the process for not 
including the fingerprint-capturing machines.  (Note:  Having 
a CNE-paid body act as an observer violates the U.N. 
declaration of principles and code of conduct for 
international election observation.)  Another official linked 
to Cuellar's mission noted the low turnout observed in 
contrast to the August municipal elections. 
 
7.  (C)  Spanish polcouns Gonzalo Fournier told poloff that 
the multi-partisan Spanish parliamentary delegation 
accredited by the CNE was concerned about the high abstention 
rate, the reliability of the machines to guarantee vote 
confidentiality, the military's presence in the voting 
 
SIPDIS 
centers, and the CNE's behavior leading up to and through the 
election.  Fournier also believed, based on the delegation's 
observation, that abstention was higher than the CNE 
estimate.  The Spanish delegation, which as accredited 
observers observed an audit in at least one opposition voting 
center, noted that the voting tally sheets (actas) registered 
that half the votes cast were for parties that had withdrawn 
from the election.  The poll workers considered these 
"consciously nullified (i.e., by the voter) votes."  If these 
votes were factored in, the abstention rate would probably be 
close to 80 percent, according to Fournier. 
Comment 
8.  (C)  Clearly the turnout for the National Assembly 
elections was extremely light, despite open intimidation 
efforts by government officials to get people to vote.  That 
the government was willing to extend voting hours based on 
relatively specious justifications, even with the OAS and EU 
observers present, to try to increase the numbers, was not 
surprising. The only question that remains is how the EU and 
OAS missions will publicly portray their observation of the 
Venezuelan electoral process. 
BROWNFIELD