US embassy cable - 05BRUSSELS4293

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRUSSELS 004293 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/06/2015 
TAGS: PREL, EAID, IZ, AF, ZL, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: EU ON UPCOMING GAERC:  AGREE WITH U.S. ON MOST 
ISSUES 
 
REF: STATE 217518 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Vincent Carver for reason 1.5 (b/d). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  According to European Commission and 
Council Secretariat officials, the EU FMs will devote their 
informal session December 7 to internal EU budget 
negotiations that will likely carry over to the December 12 
GAERC.  Non-budget discussions December 12 will focus on the 
Balkans, including on candidate status for Macedonia, which 
the French, Germans and Danes continue to question.  Our 
contacts said the EU agreed with most of our points (REFTEL) 
and would consider pledging additional assistance for 
Afghanistan at the London conference early next year.  END 
SUMMARY 
 
2.  (C) We presented points (REFTEL) regarding the upcoming 
EU FMs meetings to contacts at the Commission and the Council 
Secretariat December 1.  We met with External Relations 
 
SIPDIS 
Commissioner Ferrero-Waldner's advisor, Judith Gebetsroitner, 
December 5 to review our points.  According to Gebetsroitner, 
the EU shares most of our concerns.  While she would not 
specify how Croatia apparently continues to cooperate fully 
with ICTY with Gotovina still at large, she stressed that the 
EU continues to insist that all Western Balkan states 
cooperate with ICTY.  She acknowledged that Kosovo as well as 
BiH likely will remain recipients of large amounts of EU 
assistance for the foreseeable future and assured us that 
Brussels will continue to support BiH constitutional reform. 
Gebetsroitner added that the European Council Secretariat and 
the Commission are working on a paper outlining likely EU 
roles in rule of law and police reform in Kosovo post-final 
status talks.  The paper will emphasize that such roles must 
be fully funded to help produce desired results.  In this 
light, much will depend on the FMs' debate December 7 over 
the UK Presidency's budget proposal.  She observed that, 
regardless of how the UK presents it, any total budget cut 
will bring out "the long knives" from throughout the EU 
bureaucracy.  Gebetsroitner expressed confidence that, given 
the history of the Balkans over the past decade and the 
Austrian Presidency's priorities, programs for the Western 
Balkans would likely remain fully funded. 
 
3.  (C) Asked about Council deliberations regarding candidate 
status for Macedonia, Gebetsroitner said she believed Germany 
and France likely would refrain from agreeing until the 
European Council December 15-16.  According to Gebetsroitner, 
Merkel's advisors likely view the issue as one where Merkel 
can demonstrate that Berlin will not simply rubber stamp 
Commission recommendations.  In the end, however, Germany 
likely will support candidate status.  Chirac, she observed, 
is a different story.  The French were generally supportive 
of moving the Western Balkan countries along the path toward 
accession; French reservations about Macedonia were "very 
recent" and likely meant for domestic French consumption, 
Gebetsroitner said.  If the French lift their objections (not 
a given, she stressed), it is highly unlikely that Denmark 
would block candidate status, she concluded. 
 
4.  (C) Turning to Afghanistan and the London Conference, 
Gebetsroitner said the Commission would likely be prepared to 
pledge additional funding, but also could not commit funds 
absent an internal EU budget deal. 
 
5.  (C) Gebetsroitner noted that the EU will continue to 
assist Iraq.  She would not, however, respond to our request 
to increase assistance.  Gebetsroitner added that the EU 
plans to announce publicly December 6 that it is going to 
open a mission in Baghdad; she was unsure when the mission 
would formally open. 
MCKINLEY 
.