US embassy cable - 05MINSK1464

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 001464 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, ECON, BO 
SUBJECT: LUKASHENKO STANDS ON HIS SOAPBOX FOR RUSSIAN 
JOURNALISTS 
 
Ref: Minsk 793 
 
1. Summary: President Lukashenko spoke at a November 23 
press conference with approximately 100 visiting Russian 
reporters from provincial media outlets.  With his 
characteristically bizarre statements, Lukashenko 
criticized the Russians for stalling the creation of the 
union state, not helping Belarus join the WTO, and 
generally not appreciating Belarus' strategic 
importance.  He asserted his confidence in winning the 
upcoming presidential elections, but vowed to step down 
if he lost.  He eschewed the need for foreign investment 
and called for "labor camps" for negligent parents. The 
President also commented on Belarus' neighbors, 
business, migration, and other domestic policies.  End 
Summary. 
 
The Russian-Belarusian Union 
---------------------------- 
 
2. Lukashenko opined that the Union State would be built 
on principles of openness, volunteering, and equality 
and would bring prosperity to both nations.  He blamed 
Russia for delaying the adoption of the draft 
Constitutional Act by making "sudden" changes, causing 
the Belarusian side to take more time to review the 
document.  Lukashenko rejected claims that he was to 
blame for Belarus' slow integration with Russia, 
claiming that it would be his "political death," as it 
was a process that he had started.  He accused President 
Putin of trying to create a Union built on European 
Union principles whereas Lukashenko insists on using the 
Soviet Union model.  Lukashenko reiterated that Belarus 
would not become part of Russia. He denied rumors that 
the Russian-Belarusian Union would have a presidential 
post and refused to comment further, fearing his remarks 
would be "turned against" him. 
 
Mourning the Loss of the USSR 
-------------------------------- 
 
3. Lukashenko told reporters that Belarus was Russia's 
"last western outpost," the land where "not a single 
Russian would ever feel bad."  He then claimed Belarus 
has never let tanks move across its territory to Moscow 
and never will. [Comment: Technically true, the German 
tanks were stopped just short of Moscow.] He mourned the 
breakup of the USSR, calling it a "tragic mistake" that 
the West had orchestrated and financed.  Lukashenko also 
blamed the USSR's collapse on former speaker of the 
Belarusian Parliament Stanislav Shushkevich.  According 
to the President, Shushkevich did not have the right to 
sign the 1991 Belovezhskaya Pushcha agreement that 
dissolved the USSR since he did not have the Belarusian 
parliament's permission. Russia, particularly Mikhail 
Gorbachev, was too soft in handling the matter and 
should have sent the Alpha commando unit to gather the 
signatories, wrap them in barbed wire, and let them 
report to President Bush what they were signing. 
 
Criticism of Russia and Others 
--------------------------------- 
 
4. The President hoped relations with Poland and the 
Baltic countries would return to normal in the future. 
Belarus' relationship with Ukraine was "good", despite 
the GOU's "envy" and "jealousy."  According to 
Lukashenko, Kiev has always criticized Belarus in order 
to emphasize its own achievements. 
 
5. Ukraine and Russia are aware of Belarus' policy and 
know that Belarus has never "bowed" its head to anyone 
nor danced to another country's beat.  Belarus' policy 
supports Belarusians' interests.  Russia knows that 
Belarus is its last line of defense against the West, 
but Belarus does not receive its deserved credit and is 
often unnecessarily criticized in the Russian press. 
Lukashenko pointed out that Belarus may have infringed 
on its neighbors' interests when making itself "room" 
following the collapse of the USSR, but hoped that 
neighboring countries did not take offense. 
 
6. According to Lukashenko, NATO is patrolling the 
border and using their radar to scan Belarus and Russia 
"all the way to the Kremlin," but Russia does not take 
the threat seriously.  Russia would rather let its S300 
surface-to-air missile systems "rot in a field" than 
give them to Belarus for free.  Instead, Belarus must 
pay for them. 
 
 
MINSK 00001464  002 OF 003 
 
 
On Russia and the WTO 
--------------------- 
 
7. Lukashenko accused Russia of abandoning Belarus on 
the way to the World Trade Organization (WTO).  Russia 
at first acted under the slogan "Join WTO Together" and 
Belarus followed.  Over time, Russia decided it was too 
hard to join the WTO together and forsook Belarus and 
the other CIS states.  Many CIS countries would find it 
difficult to join the WTO anyway because of U.S. and EU 
politics.  However, Lukashenko felt confident that the 
CIS states could "make do" without WTO membership and 
that Belarus' markets would nevertheless be highly 
attractive.  According to Lukashenko, the IMF and the 
World Bank admitted they could not counter Belarus' 
economic model and agreed Belarus was a fast-developing 
state. 
 
8. The President opined that Russia would lose more than 
it plans to gain if it joined the WTO. Lukashenko 
referred to Russia's economic development minister's 
assessment that Russia's non-participation in WTO would 
result in a USD 700 million to 1.8 billion-loss for 
Russia, which, according to Lukashenko, is a small 
figure for such a wealthy country.  In turn, 
participation would cause more problems for Russia, such 
as the "suffocation" of the Russian automotive and civil 
aviation industries and agriculture. 
 
If He Wins.If He Loses 
---------------------- 
 
9. Lukashenko told reporters that despite the 
information war waged by the West, "very large" forces 
in the U.S., EU, and UK would de facto recognize him 
should he win the 2006 election.  According to 
Lukashenko, these "forces" oppose pressuring Belarus, 
the center of Europe, since such pressure would not do 
Europeans any good.  The President claimed these forces 
were just emerging and hailed such tendencies. According 
to Lukashenko, the presidential election in Belarus 
would be a test not only for himself, but also for the 
GOB and all branches of power. 
 
10. Lukashenko remarked that he would retire from 
politics if he lost the elections.  He would use his 
dual degrees in history and economics, his ten years as 
president, and his management experience in agriculture 
to find a job.  Lukashenko claims it would be better for 
him to leave now, with the economy blooming and people 
feeling much more prosperous, than ten years ago. 
However, he would run for president again because the 
country could lose its stability without him. 
 
11. The President told reporters that if he lost the 
election, it would be such a serious blow to Russia that 
it would take a long time for Russia to "regain 
consciousness." Lukashenko claimed he would not rig the 
elections, because according to surveys, he already 
enjoys a 75 percent approval rating.  Even the pollsters 
who are "paid by the Americans" give Lukashenko a 57 
percent rating.  The President predicted the U.S. would 
not prevent him from participating in the elections, but 
would prevent the world from recognizing him as the 
Belarusian leader should he win. 
 
On domestic issues 
------------------- 
 
12. Lukashenko told the reporters about his idea to 
establish labor camps for negligent parents. The purpose 
would be to force bad parents to work off the expense of 
their children's stay in orphanages and boarding 
schools. 
 
13. The President does not plan to change his  economic 
plan for the next five years. Private business would not 
be allowed to invest in Belarus' housing and municipal 
economy because it would force citizens to pay five to 
ten times more for utilities.  Lukashenko then called 
foreign investors "cockroaches" that try to crawl into 
every hole and crack in Belarus.  Only investments 
approved by the President are allowed in Belarus.  This 
helps to eliminate competition for Belarusian producers 
and prevents private businesses from taking profits out 
of the country.  Lukashenko also stated that only he has 
the right to allow agricultural lands to be privatized 
for non-agricultural purposes and that state and private 
property should be under his control. 
 
 
MINSK 00001464  003 OF 003 
 
 
14. Lukashenko stated that he attends the Orthodox 
Church on Easter and Christmas because Belarusians "want 
to see him there." He supports construction of new 
Orthodox churches and claimed to support all confessions 
as they, likewise, support him. According to Lukashenko, 
certain functionaries in the Polish community tried to 
instigate an anti-Belarusian conflict but failed. Poles 
in Belarus are treated not as a minority (because this 
definition offends people) but as full-fledged 
Belarusian citizens. 
 
15. The President opined that the Belarus population (10 
million) is too small and needs to be 30 million, 
although the country can feed 70 million, to properly 
manage the land and turn it into "paradise." Lukashenko 
invited Russians, Ukrainians, Georgians, Azeris, and 
Muslims to move to Belarus.  He also invited all "Jews" 
who once lived in Belarus but moved away.  They are 
welcome back, but only "with money." 
 
16. Lukashenko told reporters that Belarus has 1,200 
mass media outlets, of which 380 are supported by the 
government. Belarusian authorities do sue the 
independent media for slanderous articles, but do 
nothing more against them. The mass media is important 
for state ideology and, therefore, should not be 
privatized. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
17. Lukashenko has used similar gatherings of friendly, 
passive Russian journalists to publicize his views on 
life, politics, and the Union state.  In July, the 
President bashed the opposition and claimed he had no 
friends or money in an interview with journalist Oleg 
Poptsov (reftel).  According to what contacts have told 
Poloff, these reporters, all from Russia's remote 
regions, receive USD 50 per day per diem, are put up in 
nice hotels (including Lukashenko's own resort in the 
Belavezhskaya Forest) and wined and dined.  As such, 
they are likely to report positive on Belarus. 
 
PHLIPOT