US embassy cable - 05ADDISABABA4016

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 004016 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/FO, AF/SPG, AF/RSA, AF/E, EUR/RPM, IO. 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2015 
TAGS: PREL, MARR, MOPS, EAID, SU, AF UNION, DARFUR 
SUBJECT: AU ON AMIS:  TRANSITION TO BLUE HATS "ONE OF THE 
OPTIONS" 
 
 
Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES A.I. VICKI HUDDLESTON. REASON: 1.4 (B) 
 AND (D) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  African Union (AU) Acting Peace and Security 
Commissioner El-Ghassim Wane confirmed to Addis-based partner 
representatives December 5 that the AU expects that the 
December 10-20 planning mission to Darfur to assess AMIS will 
make recommendations regarding the future of AMIS, to include 
transition to a UN mission.  While the AU Commission is not 
in a position to "prejudge" the outcome of a Peace and 
Security Council (PSC) decision (expected in early January), 
by stating explicitly in writing that the assessment mission 
should consider transition of AMIS to a UN mission, Wane 
assured partners that AU Commission Chairperson Konare and 
UNSYG Annan "are talking."  UN representatives in Addis 
caution that the UN does not consider the AU-led planning 
mission a simultaneous UN reconnaissance mission for 
transition.  They do appear comfortable with the three-step 
process of planning mission, PSC decision, UNSC planning 
authorization, with the planning mission being a step 
required to get a PSC green light.  Wane also stated that he 
does not believe a PSC decision authorizing an increase in 
AMIS numbers would be realistic.  Post acknowledges 
Department-proposed rehatting strategy, but notes the need to 
also work with PSC members, including current chair Algeria 
and incoming chair Cameroon, to produce a positive PSC 
outcome.  End summary. 
 
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AU-LED PLANNING MISSION 
----------------------- 
 
2. (U) The AU has issued the following terms of reference for 
its December 10-20 assessment mission to Darfur: 
 
-- Undertake an in-depth and critical review of the 
operations of the military and civilian police components of 
AMIS, in relation to the implementation of their mandate, as 
spelt out in Decisions PSC/PR/Comm. (XCII) and PSC/PR/Comm. 
(XXVIII) adopted by the PSC on 20 October 2004 and 28 April 
2005, respectively; 
 
-- Assess the extent of the implementation of the 
recommendations of the AU-Led Assessment Mission of 10 to 20 
March, 2005, as reflected in the Report of the Chairperson of 
the Commission on the Situation in the Darfur Region of the 
Sudan (PSC/PR2 (XXVII)) and subsequently approved by the PSC; 
 
-- Evaluate the prevailing security and humanitarian 
situation in Darfur, as a whole; 
 
-- In light of its finding, make recommendations on the way 
forward. 
 
3. (U) The U.S., Canada, EU and UN have been invited to 
participate in the assessment mission.  The AU is considering 
participation of remaining key contributors Norway and NATO. 
AU Special Representative for Sudan Amb. Kingibe will lead 
the mission and the AU seeks to keep total mission size to 30 
representatives.  Darfur Integrated Task Force (DITF) Head 
Amb. Ki Doulaye, defense attaches from each of the troop 
contributing countries (Gambia, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal and 
South Africa), police contributing country Ghana and the 
current and future chairs of the PSC (Algeria and Cameroon) 
will take part for the AU. 
 
4. (U) The AU foresees that the technical assessment mission 
will take place from December 10-17 and that the team will 
travel to Addis Ababa to draft the assessment mission report 
from December 17-20.  According to Wane, the PSC will meet on 
Darfur in Addis Ababa in early January. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
AU:  UN TRANSITION "AN OPTION"; UN URGES ONE STEP AT A TIME 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
5. (SBU) On December 5, Partner representatives met to 
exchange ideas ahead of a planning mission coordination 
meeting with AU Acting Peace and Security Commissioner 
El-Ghassim Wane. Representatives from the UN Assistance Cell 
to the AU pointed out that New York does not view the AU's 
assessment mission terms of reference as sufficient to allow 
a UN reconnaissance mission simultaneous to the AU-led 
mission.  The UN does view the terms of reference as a 
"slightly open door" to join the mission and include 
paragraphs on the topic of transition to a UN mission as one 
of the options open to the AU for the future of AMIS.  The UN 
representatives cautioned that the UN needs UNSC planning 
authority before it can properly consider and plan a 
transition.  U.S., UK and Canadian representatives responded 
that the assessment mission is a necessary precursor to an AU 
PSC green light and that the PSC report must contain 
sufficient information regarding transition requirements to 
enable a PSC decision. 
 
6. (SBU) In terms of AU perspective regarding the terms of 
reference point on "the way forward" for AMIS, Wane explained 
that the AU Commission is not in a position to "prejudge" the 
outcome of either the assessment mission conclusions or the 
PSC decision. The AU purposely drafted the terms of reference 
to be broad enough to enable the assessment mission to reach 
"any informed conclusion" regarding the future of AMIS, and 
to back up conclusions with concrete information to enable a 
PSC decision.  Wane said that he speaks on behalf of the 
Commission in saying that the assessment team "can make any 
recommendation it deems appropriate based on the situation on 
the ground."  He elaborated that enlargement and extension of 
AMIS' mandate is an option, as is UN transition.  He noted 
that a PSC decision to enlarge AMIS does not appear practical 
due to funding and other constraints. 
 
7. (SBU) Partners pointed out that UNDPKO may need some 
reassurance that while the AU Commission cannot make 
requests, the AU does see UN transition as "an option" for 
the future of AMIS, to which Wane responded that he is 
certain AU Commission Chairperson Konare and UNSYG Annan "are 
talking."  He stated that transition "has been on our minds" 
at the AU, but noted that the issue of AMIS transition is 
politically more difficult that that of the AU Mission in 
Burundi.  In the latter's case, the PSC foresaw a transition 
from day one.  UN representatives appeared satisfied with 
Wane's comments, but noted that the UN is primarily in Addis 
to assist the AU, and is not actively advocating mission 
handover. 
 
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FURTHER CLARIFICATIONS 
---------------------- 
 
8. (SBU) Partners asked for clarification as to the extent to 
which the assessment mission report will influence the report 
for the PSC, given the fact that the DITF has already 
prepared a report for Konare's review.  Wane responded that 
the AU sees the assessment mission as part of a process to 
produce a comprehensive report for the PSC.  He stated that 
the AU will extract relevant sections from the assessment 
mission report to add to the PSC report.  Wane noted that the 
assessment mission is designed to present Konare with 
informed options for him to make recommendations to the PSC. 
The AU Military Staff Committee and the Abuja Political Talks 
Team will also contribute to the PSC report, he said.  Wane 
indicated that AU Legal will advise on the relationship 
between the AU and the International Criminal Court (ICC) as 
relates to Darfur. 
 
9. (SBU) Wane noted that other assessment mission objectives 
are to assess the performance of AMIS against its mandate, 
taking into account a prevailing situation of non-cooperation 
amongst Sudanese parties; to assess AU implementation of 
March assessment mission recommendations; and to put AMIS in 
the context of prevailing security and humanitarian 
situations in Darfur.  The Canadian representative stated 
that Ottawa would like the assessment mission to also examine 
partner implementation of commitments to AMIS. 
 
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THE LONG ROAD TO A PSC DECISION 
------------------------------- 
 
10. (C) Comment:  With the AU's (albeit careful) confirmation 
that UN transition is one of the options to be considered in 
a Commission report to the PSC making recommendations on the 
future of AMIS, the burden is on partners to work with the AU 
and key PSC member states to ensure that the idea of 
transition is politically palatable.  Measures to improve 
AMIS ground coverage and command and control will help ensure 
AMIS can exit having implemented March assessment mission 
recommendations and improved mandate execution.  Significant 
progress in the Abuja talks is not guaranteed, but favorable 
to the AU's portaying its Darfur lead as a success if 
achieved.  AU Special Representative Kingibe, who is to lead 
the assessment mission, has been more forward-leaning than 
other AU officials on the issue of UN transition.  On the 
other hand, PSC Chair Algeria has expressed re-hatting 
reservations to Addis-based AU partners.  Addis-based Algeria 
and Egypt Embassy representatives feel that AMIS needs more 
time to prove itself before the UN takes over.  If 
Addis-based UN representative comments match positions held 
in New York, the UN may also need guidance that including in 
the assessment mission report information on steps needed to 
affect a UN transition is necessary to ensure that the AU 
Commission can make informed recommendations to the PSC.  End 
comment. 
 
11. (U) Minimize considered. 
HUDDLESTON