US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI4799

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 004799 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, TW, Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT:  TAIWAN'S DECEMBER ELECTION: KMT SWEEPS 
"THREE-IN-ONE ELECTIONS" 
 
REF: TAIPEI 2490 
 
1.  (U) Summary.  The Kuomintang (KMT) scored a landslide 
victory in Taiwan's island-wide local elections Saturday, 
December 3.  The opposition party won 51 percent of the vote 
cast to the ruling Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) 42 
percent, 14 out of 23 county magistrate and city mayor seats 
contested, gaining 5 new seats including the single biggest 
prize, Taipei County.  In lower level elections held the same 
day, the KMT topped the DPP in all but one country council 
race and won over half of township and village chief races. 
While the KMT celebrates its first victory under party 
Chairman Ma Ying-jeou, the DPP has vowed to reexamine and 
reform itself.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (U) On December 3, Taiwan held local "three-in-one" 
elections for (1) county magistrates and city mayors, (2) 
county and city councilors, and (3) township and village 
chiefs.  The county magistrate and city mayor elections, 
viewed as an island-wide contest between ruling and 
opposition parties, received most of the media coverage. 
With an overall voter turnout rate of 66 percent, Kuomintang 
(KMT) county magistrate and city mayor candidates won 51 
percent of the vote and 14 of 23 seats (up from 9 in 2001), 
while the DPP won 42 percent of the vote and held on to only 
6 (down from 9) seats.  The KMT garnered 51 percent of votes 
for county magistrate/city mayor up dramatically from its 35 
percent of the vote and 9 seats in 2001.  The DPP won 42 
percent of votes this year down from 45 percent in 2001. 
 
KMT: Resounding Victory 
----------------------- 
 
3. (U) Most noteworthy were KMT wins in three previously 
green strongholds -- Taipei and Ilan Counties in the north 
and Chiayi City in the south.  The KMT broke the DPP 16-year 
hold on Taipei County, viewed by both sides as the key race 
and a strategic district heading into the 2008 presidential 
election, with candidate Chou Hsi-wei winning 55 percent of 
the vote.  KMT candidate Lu Kuo-hua won a close race with 51 
percent of the vote to retake Ilan County, considered "sacred 
territory" by the DPP which had ruled the country for 24 
years.  In southern Chiayi City, KMT candidate Huang Ming-hui 
took the city for the KMT for the first time in 38 years. 
 
DPP: Humiliating Defeat 
----------------------- 
 
4. (U) The DPP's biggest setback was losing Taipei County. 
After 16 years of DPP rule, DPP candidate Luo Wen-jia, 
dragged down by the continuing news of DPP scandals and by 
last-minute vote-buying allegations, only received 44 percent 
of votes.  In addition to Ilan County and Chiayi City, the 
DPP also lost its hold on Changhua and Nantou Counties, both 
located in central Taiwan.  In Nantou County, an independent 
candidate, who withdrew from the DPP after failing to win the 
nomination, complicated the election for the DPP's Tsai 
Huang-lang and may have split the Green vote.  The one bright 
spot for the DPP was its win in Yunlin County, noteworthy 
since the KMT has ruled Yunlin for 50 years.  DPP Chairman Su 
Tseng-chang, who promised to step down if the DPP failed to 
 
SIPDIS 
hold Taipei County or to win 10 seats at the county 
magistrate/city mayor level, has resigned. Premier Frank 
Hsieh has also offered to resign.  Although the DPP admits 
that a cabinet reshuffle will occur, no specific 
announcements have been made. 
 
The End of Coalitions? 
---------------------- 
 
5.  (U) This election may have marked the end of the Pan-Blue 
(pro-unification) and Pan-Green (pro-independence) coalitions 
which have dominated Taiwan politics since 2000.  The KMT's 
Pan-Blue partner, People's First Party (PFP), won a meager 
1.11 percent of the total vote, while the DPP's Pan-Green 
partner, Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU), won just 1.13 percent 
of the vote.  This apparent sidelining of the more 
fundamentalist elements of the coalitions reinforces earlier 
projections that a two-party political system is in the 
process of emerging in Taiwan (reftel).  At the lower level, 
the PFP did slightly better (3 percent of the vote) while the 
TSU again won barely one percent of votes cast. 
 
SIPDIS 
The Rest of the Election:  KMT Sweep 
------------------------------------ 
 
6.  In the rest of the three-in-one election, KMT won big. 
Of 901 city and county council seats at stake, KMT won 409, 
DPP 192, PFP 31, NP 2, TSU 11, and Independents 256.  The KMT 
also won over half 173 of the 319 township mayor races in the 
18 counties; DPP won only 35; PFP won 3, and TSU 0.  The DPP 
won a majority of council seats only in Chiayi County. 
 
Comment 
------- 
7.  (C) The December 3 election results closely followed the 
course of the Chuoshui River running east-west between Yunlin 
and Changhua Counties, which has long been considered the 
traditional divide in Taiwan politics between the 
pro-independence "Blue" parties to the north and the "Green" 
pro-independence "Green" parties to the south.  It was 
noteworthy, however, that the Kuomintang won most of its 14 
races north of the Chuoshui (except for Ilan County) by 
fairly large margins, whereas the DPP won its elections to 
the south by much narrower margins (except for Kaohsiung and 
Chiayi Counties).  The results, viewed by the KMT as a 
referendum on Ma's first months as Chairman, have boosted the 
party's and Ma's confidence.  The DPP, discouraged and 
disappointed, is trying to couch the loss as "good for 
democracy" and has vowed to reexamine and reform itself. 
Septel we will consider what caused the dramatic turn-around 
in the fortunes of the DPP and KMT and what it may portend. 
KEEGAN