US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI4798

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 004798 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - ERIC 
BARBORIAK 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW, Domestic Politics, Foreign Policy 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: TAIWAN'S 3-IN-1 ELECTIONS, U.S.- 
TAIWAN RELATIONS 
 
1. Summary: Major Taiwan dailies gave significant reporting 
and editorial coverage December 3-5 to Taiwan's 3-in-1 local 
elections Saturday, in which the KMT won a landslide 
victory, and the impact of the elections on the future 
prospects of the pan-Blue and pan-Green camps.  The pro- 
unification "United Daily News" ran a banner headline on its 
front page December 5 that read: "Bian's Approval Rating 
Drops to a New Low of 21."  The sub-headline added: "[DPP's] 
Defeat Is Mainly Due to Its Poor Administrative Performance 
and Party Image Tarnished by the Kaohsiung Mass Rapid 
Transit Corp. Scandals.  56 Percent [of the Respondents] 
Believe Chen Shui-bian Should Be the Key Person Held 
Responsible [for DPP's Setback]."  The centrist "China 
Times" also carried a poll survey on its page two December 5 
edition that said: "45 Percent [of Those Polled] Believe 
Chen Should Be Held Responsible for the DPP's Defeat." 
 
Most papers carried the State Department's statement 
Saturday that the "3-in-1" elections reflected Taiwan's 
democratic strength and vitality.  The centrist "China 
Times" also carried a news story December 5 saying that due 
to the KMT's landslide victory and KMT Chairman Ma Ying- 
jeou's soaring popularity, Washington has invited Ma to 
visit the United States after the 3-in-1 elections. 
 
2. Almost all newspapers editorialized on the 3-in-1 
election results and the future prospects for President Chen 
Shui-bian and KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou.  Editorials of the 
pro-independence "Liberty Times," "Taipei Times," (English- 
language) and "Taiwan News" (English-language) all agreed 
that the DPP's setback is a stern warning to the ruling 
party.  An editorial in the mass-circulation "Apple Daily" 
analyzed the election results and said they will have a 
profound impact on President Chen Shui-bian and the DPP.  A 
"China Times" editorial said the voters have used their 
votes to send a clear message to both the ruling and 
opposition parties, namely, no political party can be the 
ruling party forever.  A commentary in the limited- 
circulation, conservative, pro-unification, English-language 
"China Post" said President Chen has himself defeated the 
DPP and that he will not change his policy lines during the 
remaining two years.  A commentary in the limited- 
circulation, pro-independence, English-language "Taipei 
Times" urged the Chen Shui-bian administration to reinforce 
its ties with the United States.  End summary. 
 
1. Taiwan's 3-in-1 Elections 
 
A) "Can the Blow of Saturday's Elections Wake up the DPP?" 
 
The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 600,000] 
commented in an editorial (12/4): 
 
"The 3-in-1 local elections were over Saturday, with the KMT 
winning 14 mayoral and magistrate posts, defeating the six 
slots collected by the DPP.  DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang 
offered to resign to take responsibility for the DPP's 
defeat.  The DPP's setback in Saturday's elections was not 
merely a problem of the party's mobilization, nomination or 
campaign strategies.  Rather, it is because the voters have 
lost faith in the DPP government, a lesson worth pondering 
for the DPP people. . 
 
"The DPP's defeat in Saturday's elections demonstrated that 
Taiwan's voters are capable of reflection, and they will not 
endorse a government that has violated its [pledge of 
adopting] a route to Taiwan nativism.  If the DPP fails to 
carry out its commitment to reform, nativism, and stemming 
corruption, the applause it won in the past will become 
catcalls.  The voters have cast a vote of no confidence in 
the DPP government now.  What is left to see is whether the 
DPP is a party capable of self-examination and can regain 
the mainstream public's confidence in its power to safeguard 
Taiwan." 
 
B) "The DPP Receives a Stern Warning" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" 
[circulation: 30,000] said in an editorial (12/4): 
 
". Commentators have argued that the outcome of these 
elections would be a good indication of the strength of [KMT 
Chairman] Ma's leadership.  And now that the KMT has 
performed very well, it is widely believed that the internal 
rifts and turmoil that were generated by the KMT 
chairmanship race may subside for the moment. 
 
"It seems that the era of Ma Ying-jeou has officially 
started.  The DPP had better start preparing itself for some 
tough challenges ahead.  Finding out where it has gone wrong 
in recent years is the first step to meeting those 
challenges." 
 
C) "All Sides Must Heed Voters' Message" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" 
[circulation: 20,000] editorialized (12/5): 
 
". This result [of Saturday's elections] undoubtedly 
inflicted a grave setback to President Shui-bian and the DPP 
by demonstrating a severe lack of . trust on the part of the 
majority of the public in the DPP government.  KMT Chairman 
Ma Ying-jeou emerged as the sole major winner in the 
campaign.  Through this triumph, the Taipei City mayor 
consolidated his new leadership within the pan-blue camp and 
has also become the most popular political heavyweight in 
Taiwan politics.  These facts are clearly favorable to his 
expected bid for the presidency in March 2008. . 
 
"In sum, the results of Saturday's poll showed a public 
eagerness for a cleaner government, more political 
stability, continued economic improvement, better and more 
efficient governance, and well-established rule of law and 
political institutions.  By taking the theme of strength and 
unity, and applying it to healthy political competition, 
anti-corruption, economic rejuvenation, fighting crime and 
improving the welfare of the people, the DPP administration 
may be able to win back support from the rank and file." 
 
D) "Ma Gets Stronger; Bian Got Deflated; and Voters Are the 
Winners" 
 
An editorial in the mass-circulation "Apple Daily" 
[circulation: 550,000] wrote (12/4): 
 
"The KMT landslide victory: `Ma [Ying-jeou] gets stronger; 
[Chen Shui-]Bian gets deflated; and it's over for [James] 
Soong.. 
 
"The results of Saturday's elections have profound 
consequences.  Chen Shui-bian has become a lame duck both 
within and outside the DPP; neither Washington nor Beijing 
pay any attention to him, and both will wait until a new 
president is elected in Taiwan in 2008.  The pan-Blue 
legislators' morale was highly boosted; they now think they 
have a strong reason to block [some of] the bills and will 
definitely act tougher.  Taiwan is doomed to waste its time 
in internal struggles for the next two years.  In comparison 
to the unprecedented solidarity of the pan-Blue alliance 
surrounding Ma Ying-jeou, the DPP will face intense internal 
struggles or will even split.  Chen Shui-bian's prestige and 
authority will be jeopardized and, should he fail to 
coordinate [among the various DPP factions], the DPP will 
likely suffer a severe defeat in the presidential election 
slated for 2008. ." 
 
E) "Taiwan People Give Their Answer Using Their Votes!" 
 
The centrist, pro-status quo "China Times" [circulation: 
400,000] noted in an editorial (12/4): 
 
"The Central Election Commission announced the final results 
of the [3-in-1] elections Saturday.  The announcement is 
akin to a formal declaration that the 3-in-1 elections have 
again redrawn the political map of Taiwan.  The KMT has 
successfully crossed [and expanded its power to over] the 
Cho Shui River [that runs across central Taiwan], while the 
DPP lost several of its traditional strongholds and 
retreated to the six cities and counties in southern Taiwan. 
Taiwan voters have used their votes to send a clear message 
to both the ruling and opposition parties: no party can be 
the ruling party forever!." 
 
F) "President Chen Defeats His DPP" 
 
Joe Hung said in the conservative, pro-unification, English- 
language "China Post" [circulation: 30,000] (12/5): 
 
"President Chen Shui-bian, who ended the half-century one- 
party rule of the Kuomintang in Taiwan in 2000, defeated his 
own Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in what is known as 
the `three-in-one' election of local governments on 
Saturday.  The opposition Kuomintang won big, but its 
landslide victory was a vote of no confidence handed to the 
president by the voters, who five years ago they had found 
an incomparable leader but now feel they have been cheated. 
. 
 
"The most urgent task facing the defeated president is to 
safeguard the stability of his government in the face of a 
triumphant opposition..  No matter how the administration is 
reshuffled, the president, who in fact is his own premier, 
will not change his policy lines.  The impasse between the 
two sides of the Taiwan Strait will remain, if it does not 
get worse - Chen vowed in the last days of the campaign to 
make it worse, should the opposition win - until he bows out 
in May 2008.  Nothing will be done to improve relations with 
China, an emerging economic power, on which Taiwan depends 
increasingly heavily for trade and growth. ." 
 
2. U.S.-Taiwan Relations 
 
"U.S.-Taiwan Relations Need to Be Reinforced" 
 
Liu Kuan-teh, a Taipei-based political commentator, said in 
the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" 
[circulation: 30,000] (12/3): 
 
"While domestic attention has again been focused on local 
politics and elections rather than international affairs, a 
closer look at the recent triangular goings on between 
Washington, Taipei and Beijing reveals an urgent need for 
President Chen Shui-bian's administration to reinforce its 
ties with the US. . 
 
"There is no doubt that the US and Taiwan share the 
universal values of democracy, freedom and human rights. 
But when it comes to the question of how to strike a balance 
between the growth of Taiwan's democratic consciousness and 
Washington's attempts to build a `candid, constructive and 
cooperative' partnership with China, it seems only the 
national interests of the US prevail.  Even the `alliance of 
values' between Washington and Taipei can sometimes become 
distorted..  Therefore, Bush's recent statement [in Kyoto] 
presents a window of opportunity for the government to 
consolidate a sustainable partnership with the US. 
 
"The lack of intimate interaction between Bush and his 
Chinese counterpart, Hu Jintao, displays a delicate change 
of Beijing's perception of the Bush administration.  While 
intentionally refusing to engage in talks with Chen, 
Beijing's leaders have also shown less willingness to 
cooperate with Washington.  One should not overlook the 
possible change of Chinese mindset as Beijing probably has 
its eyes on the next change of leadership in both Taiwan and 
the US.  Until 2008, passive interaction with Taiwan and the 
US may become a central principle of Beijing's policy.. 
 
"Under such a geopolitical landscape, the Bush 
administration should really contemplate the degree to which 
Washington can keep a balance between safeguarding its own 
national interests and dealing with an undemocratic China 
while keeping a fully-fledged democratic Taiwan safe from 
China's military expansion." 
 
KEEGAN