US embassy cable - 05BAGHDAD4842

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 004842 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/15 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, IZ, SA, Elections 
SUBJECT: CHALABI ALLY: THERE IS NO RESISTANCE, ONLY 
TERRORISM 
 
Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR MICHAEL J. ADLER, FOR REASONS 
 1.4 (B) AND (D). 
 
 1. (C) In a December 3 meeting with Poloffs, INC candidate 
Mariam al-Rais argued in favor of her party's platform and 
party leader Ahmed Chalabi's qualifications to lead the next 
government.  Al-Rais faulted Jordan, Syria and Saudi Arabia 
for contributing to Iraq's instability.  In a clear allusion 
to the Arab League Cairo Prepcon statement she said that 
there is no "resistance" in Iraq, only terrorism.  END SUMMARY 
 
2. (U) Poloffs met December 3 with TNA member Mariam al-Rais, 
who is currently running on Ahmed Chalabi's Iraqi National 
Congress  (INC) list in the upcoming election.  Al-Rais began 
her presentation with a general assertion of support for 
de-Ba'athification and anti-corruption efforts.  With that in 
mind, she asked rhetorically why the TNA had not lifted the 
immunity of Alawi-ally and former Minister of Defense Hazim 
al-Shalan (NOTE: Members of the TNA raised this issue during 
the previous week's session, but no action was taken.) 
Al-Rais then presented portions of the INC's campaign 
platform: combating poverty in Iraq through the direct 
allocation of a percentage of oil revenues to Iraqi citizens; 
distributing state land for housing to Iraqi citizens; and 
improving the education system, particularly universities. 
 
3. (C) The INC List has candidates in all 15 governorates 
outside of Kurdistan.  Al-Rais said the list has some 
national figures as well as provincial notables.  She also 
said that Chalabi maintains close ties to politicians on 
other lists, including Sadrists and Shaykh Abdel Karem 
al-Mohamedawi (Abu Hatem).  On the subject of campaign 
intimidation, she did not point to any campaign problems or 
irregularities regarding the INC.  When PolOff raised recent 
media reports of campaign intimidation with other parties, 
she acknowledged that she had heard that others had presented 
complaints to the IECI, and wondered why the IECI had not 
done anything in response.  (NOTE: Embassy has pressed the 
IECI to issue a statement condemning campaign intimidation; 
on December 4, International Commissioner Jenness told 
Poloffs the Commission has plans to do so.) 
 
4. (C) While al-Rais refused to speculate on how the INC will 
do in the elections, she did say there are only four 
personalities who could be the next Prime Minister: former PM 
Allawi, current PM Jafari, VP Abd' al-Mehdi, and DPM Chalabi. 
 She argued forcefully that of the group, Ahmed Chalabi would 
be the most appropriate candidate. 
 
5. (C) Al-Rais said "there is no resistance in Iraq, just 
terrorism" -- a clear reference to the Arab League Cairo 
Prepcon's final statement.  She pointed to Iraq's Arab 
neighbors as sources of the country's instability -- in 
particular to Jordan and Syria (i.e., for giving sanctuary to 
terrorists and Ba'athists) as well as Saudi Arabia (as the 
source of Wahabism). 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
6. (C) Al-Rais was emphatic that Ahmed Chalabi is the right 
man to lead Iraq.  She argued that twenty years of war had 
psychologically damaged generations of Iraqis, and that only 
those who had been in exile -- like Chalabi -- are 
appropriate leaders at this juncture.  Her discussion of 
threats from neighboring countries was notable for the 
absence of a reference to Iran.  As for Al-Rais, herself, 
unless the INC list does unexpectedly well in the elections, 
it is unlikely that she will be elected to the Council of 
Representatives. She is the ninth candidate on the INC's 
Baghdad list. 
SATTERFIELD