US embassy cable - 05KINGSTON2642

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINGSTON 002642 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CAR (BENT) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINR, JM 
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S NOV. 29 COURTESY CALL ON PORTIA 
SIMPSON MILLER 
 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Thomas C. Tighe.  Reasons 1.4(b) and ( 
d). 
 
 1.  (C) Summary: The Ambassador paid an initial courtesy 
call on Portia Simpson Miller, Minister of Local Government, 
Community and Sport, on November 29.  Simpson Miller, 
considered the most popular politician of either party in 
Jamaica, outlined the responsibilities falling under her 
portfolio and in a matter-of-fact tone lamented the 
difficulty of managing it in the face of chronic GOJ budget 
shortfalls.  The Minister, one of four Peoples National Party 
(PNP) candidates vying to succeed Prime Minister P.J. 
Patterson, expressed confidence in her chances of winning the 
top job in the PNP's internal leadership contest early in 
2006.  She also stated that unspecified senior PNP members 
virulently opposed her candidacy and were discussing 
questionable means of sidelining her candidacy.  End Summary. 
 
2. (SBU) The Ambassador, accompanied by Pol/EconCouns, called 
on Portia Simpson Miller, Minister of Local Government, 
Community and Sport, at the Ministry.  Simpson Miller was 
joined by her political advisor, Anthony Irons.  Renee Anne 
Shirley, Senior Advisor to the Minister (and elder sister of 
Gordon Shirley, Jamaica's Ambassador to the U.S.), was also 
present for parts of the meeting.  Simpson Miller began by 
warmly greeting the Ambassador, and by expressing the hope 
that the Ambassador would continue to build on the foundation 
of good relations established by her predecessors.  The 
Minister joked that her own portfolio consisted mostly of 
"headaches", briefly reviewing some aspects of it: the 
National Solid Waste Management Agency (NSWMA, poor 
management of which created a very public scandal in 2005); 
the Fire Brigade, chronic underfunding of which by the GOJ 
led to a critical Opposition motion from which Simpson Miller 
abstained rather than vote with her party; maintenance of 
cemeteries, etc.  Only the Sports portfolio, she continued, 
was a positive one, allowing her to oversee Jamaica's 
fiercely contested national secondary school athletics 
competitions, and to preside over agreeable events such as 
the planned December unveiling of a statue in honor of 
renowned former Jamaican Olympic sprinter Merlene Ottey. 
Asked whether her Sports portfolio included overseeing 
Jamaica's preparations to host some of the matches of the 
2007 Cricket World Cup to be held throughout the West Indies, 
Simpson Miller replied that Prime Minister P.J. Patterson had 
assumed charge of the effort in Cabinet, and that "the rest 
of us are on the sidelines." 
 
3. (C) One of four declared candidates from the governing 
Peoples National Party (PNP) vying to succeed Prime Minister 
P.J. Patterson, Simpson Miller told the Ambassador that she 
was confident of her chances of becoming the next PM, and 
that her campaign team - "a very strong one" - was working 
with the grassroots to pave the way.  At the same time, 
however, Simpson Miller, widely considered to be the most 
popular politician of either party in Jamaica, maintained 
that unspecified senior members of the PNP resented her 
because of her modest origins and her widely acknowledged 
ability to relate to the poorer masses.  These individuals, 
she said, were adamantly opposed to her candidacy.  In fact, 
she continued, some PNP Members of Parliament have quietly 
floated the idea that majority MPs can petition the Governor 
General to select the next prime minister.  (Note:  It was 
unclear to which stage in the selection process Simpson 
Miller was referring - the internal vote among PNP delegates 
to elect Patterson's successor, or the general election 
sometime thereafter, in which that individual faces off 
against Jamaica Labor Party Leader Bruce Golding.  Simpson 
Miller did not clarify the point when asked directly to do 
so.  End note.)  Simpson Miller indicated very clearly, 
however, that there would be "trouble" should her PNP 
opponents unfairly derail her campaign to succeed Patterson. 
 
4. (C) Comment:  The meeting was very cordial, and Simpson 
Miller, who enjoyed a good rapport with the immediate 
previous ambassador, seemed genuinely interested in 
establishing a similar relationship with the current 
Ambassador.  The Minister was also far more "political" in 
her statements than in recent discussions with emboffs.  With 
Patterson having publicly committed to step down by April 
2006 at the latest, it is clear that the succession race is 
very much on Simpson Miller's mind.  With so much at stake, 
it is no surprise that the Minister's opponents within the 
PNP would be assessing a range of options to defeat her. 
Such is Simpson Miller's popularity that she can indeed make 
trouble if she loses, particularly if she feels cheated. 
Given the vagueness of her allegation, however, Post is 
discreetly sounding out other senior PNP contacts about the 
Minister's claim that some PNP MPs are discussing ways of 
sidelining her even if she wins the internal election.  At 
this time Post has no/no indication that anything other than 
the usual back-room, bare-knuckled political maneuvering is 
underway in the internal contest, but, given Jamaica's 
history of electoral violence, the allegation bears watching. 
TIGHE