US embassy cable - 05RIODEJANEIRO1228

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 RIO DE JANEIRO 001228 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KCOR, BR, Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: Garotinho Scores Victory, Loses Ground 
 
Ref: Rio de Janeiro 1118 
 
1. Summary. Despite winning a narrow victory in the Regional 
Electoral Tribunal (TRE) that restored his political rights, 
Anthony Garotinho (Rio de Janeiro's ex-governor and 2006 
presidential candidate) appears to be losing ground in his 
quest for the presidency.  His own PMDB party has been 
lukewarm toward his pre-candidacy, and a series of recent 
polls show him slipping in popularity.  The only scenario 
where he would force a second round of elections with 
President Lula is one in which the opposition PSDB does not 
run a candidate, an unlikely scenario at best.  With plenty 
of time and a formidable political machine at his disposal, 
however, Garotinho is still likely to play an important role 
in next year's elections. 
 
Garotinho's Court Woes Finally Over (for Now) 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
2. In a controversial 4-3 decision, the TRE of Rio de Janeiro 
recently decided to uphold the political rights of ex- 
governor Anthony Garotinho and his wife Rosinha, the current 
governor of the state.  Unless the decision is appealed to 
the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) and overturned, this 
means Garotinho is eligible to run for the presidency in 
2006. The justifications of the four judges that voted to 
vindicate the couple on charges of electoral corruption were 
somewhat bizarre, including one judge who noted that the 
suspect funds were not really all that significant of a sum 
(around USD 100,000) and another who argued that even if the 
money was meant to buy votes, the fact that it was 
apprehended before it could be spent meant that no crime was 
actually committed.  The earliest that the TSE would take up 
the case is probably in March of 2006. 
 
... but Electoral Woes Just Beginning 
------------------------------------- 
 
3. Despite the legal victory, Garotinho appears to be 
slipping in popularity (for a variety of reasons discussed in 
reftel).  A recent poll by the opinion firm IBOPE found him 
trailing a distant third (with 9 percent of the vote) to 
President Lula and Jose Serra of the PSDB, and roughly even 
with Geraldo Alckmin of the PSDB (at 15 percent of the vote) 
if he were to be the candidate of that party.  In any 
scenario in which Garotinho forced a second round with Lula, 
he was projected to be crushed decisively. 
 
4. A similar poll by Datafolha showed Garotinho losing out to 
any PSDB candidate by margins between 17 and 3 percent 
depending on the candidate.  More worrying for Garotinho is 
the head-to-head scenario with Lula - after three consecutive 
polls where Garotinho gradually increased from 24 percent to 
32 percent of the vote, he slipped to 31 percent in the most 
recent version. 
 
5. Along with the gloomy polling data, Garotinho must also 
contend with continued resistance from within his own PMDB 
party, the leaders of which are reluctant to endorse his 
candidacy because of his controversial past and his populist 
rhetoric.  The party leadership has also not ruled out an 
alliance with President Lula, which would mean that no 
candidate would be put forward. Despite offers from other 
parties, Garotinho appears to believe his best chance of 
victory lies with the PMDB and is dedicating himself to 
wooing the delegates who will choose the party's candidate 
(if they run one). 
 
Candidate or Power Broker? 
-------------------------- 
 
6. The role that Garotinho will play in the coming election 
will depend greatly on his ability to mobilize both his own 
party and his broad national base of evangelicals.  In this 
respect, his lack of a day job will work to his advantage, as 
he recently resigned his position in his wife's government to 
devote himself fully to his campaign.  He has publicly 
announced that he will travel the entire country speaking to 
as many of the 24,000 PMDB delegates as possible prior to the 
party convention in March. 
 
7. He has also stepped up his daily broadcasts of religious 
messages in his role as a member of the Universal Church of 
the Kingdom of God.  His daily hour-long program, "Words of 
Faith," is broadcast over 180 radio stations in 20 Brazilian 
states and reaches a vast portion of Brazil's growing and 
politically active evangelical population.  This segment 
voted strongly in favor of him during the last election, and 
he can be expected to once again control a substantial 
portion of these votes. 
 
8. If Garotinho is unsuccessful in his bid to gain the PMDB 
candidacy or the PMDB decides not to run its own candidate, 
he has stated that he will throw his support behind Jose 
Alencar, of the recently formed Republican Party of Brazil 
(PRB), who also has a strong base in the evangelical 
movement.  This would add considerable weight to Alencar's 
candidacy - which is currently not even on the radar screen - 
although probably not enough to carry the election. Still, it 
would create a sizable bloc with significant negotiating 
power if the election goes to a dead heat in the second round 
between Lula and Serra, and could end up deciding the next 
president (the overall evangelical population in Brazil is 
estimated to be between 25 and 40 million voters.) 
 
ATKINS