US embassy cable - 05ALMATY4285

UNCLAS  ALMATY 004285 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
C O R R E C T E D  C O P Y - TEXT 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KZ, 2005 Election 
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ROUNDUP, 
DECEMBER 2 
 
REF: Almaty 4171 
 
1. (U) This is the eleventh and final in a series of 
weekly election roundups in advance of Kazakhstan's 
December 4, 2005 presidential elections.  Items were drawn 
primarily from the local press and media. 
 
Candidates Wrap Up Election Campaigns 
------------------------------------- 
 
2. (U) On November 30, President Nursultan Nazarbayev 
ended his election campaign with a bang.  More than 5,000 
people, looking relaxed and joyful, gathered at the Palace 
for Sports in Astana to show their support for the 
incumbent.  Nazarbayev delivered a speech outlining the 
future of Kazakhstan.  "I see Kazakhstan among the 50 most 
competitive countries of the world, where every family has 
its own home, a car, and a business," he said. 
Nazarbayev performed a duet with a well-known opera 
singer, which elicited an enthusiastic applause from the 
audience.  Senate Chairman Nurtay Abykayev hailed the 
president by whistling.  Similar mass meetings in support 
of Nazarbayev were held on the same day in every regional 
center of Kazakhstan. 
 
3. (U) Tuyakbay's final election campaign events in 
Southern Kazakhstan Oblast and in Almaty occurred without 
major incident.  In some regions of Southern Kazakhstan 
people allegedly recruited by local authorities tried to 
disrupt Tuyakbay's meetings with the electorate by yelling 
into microphones they brought and by insulting Tuyakbay. 
The police reportedly did not intervene.  Tuyakbay plans 
to end his campaign in Kzylorda Oblast.  "I have become 
convinced that local authorities will try to falsify the 
election because they understand that if I win, local 
officials involved in preparing unfair election technology 
will be out of work," Tuyakbay said. 
 
4. (U) Alikhan Baymenov's campaign will wrap up with stops 
in Taldykurgan, Astana, Arkalyk, and Zhezkazgan, his 
hometown.  At a briefing in Almaty on November 29, 
Baymenov said, "During this election campaign I witnessed 
those who call themselves democrats, using financial and 
mass media resources, trying to turn the political 
situation in the Qry into a race on vilifying each 
other, because they understand they are not able to 
compete in a fair competition."  He added, "The majority 
understand that if those who use democratic shields seize 
power it would be a step back because it would lead to 
chaos and the redistribution of property, and the 
interests of ordinary people would be left on the 
sidelines."  Baymenov noted that he had held 60 meetings 
in more than 40 settlements. 
 
5. (U) On November 29, Yerasyl Abylkasymov visited 
Karaganda Oblast.  While in Karaganda, Abylkasymov said 
his platform always found common ground with the 
electorate and that his program was designed for people 
who remembered and respected the communist past. 
Abylkasymov added he would tirelessly fight against those 
who impose Western values on our people.  Abylkasymov 
announced he would finish his election campaign in 
Zhezkazgan on November 30. 
 
6. (U) On November 30, Mels Yeleusizov met in Almaty with 
independent observers from France and with OSCE 
observation mission head Audrey Glover.  During his 
meeting with the French observers, Yeleusizov announced 
his plan to establish the Green Party irrespective of the 
election results.  He also mentioned that the government 
provided every candidate with equal access to mass media. 
 
7. (U) On November 30, the election headquarters of 
Baymenov, Tuyakbay and Abylkasymov issued joint statement 
calling on the CEC to do away with the electronic voting 
system.  The e-voting system creates opportunities for 
electoral law violations and fraud, the statement said. 
 
President Warns Against Splits in Society 
----------------------------------------- 
 
8. (U) On November 22, President Nazarbayev delivered a 
speech at the Eleventh Assembly of the Peoples of 
Kazakhstan, urging the passage legislation that would 
 
 
prevent splits in society.  A multiparty system should not 
grow into an open confrontation like we are witnessing 
now, Nazarbayev said.  Splits in society hinder further 
progress; this would be a dangerous development for our 
statehood, warned the President. 
 
President Orders Akims Not to Falsify Vote 
----------------------------------------- 
 
9. (U) On November 23, according to presidential adviser 
Yermukhamet Yertysbayev, President Nazarbayev ordered top 
government officials in the regions to prevent 
falsification of the election results.  Nazarbayev met 
with the akims to deliver this message personally. 
 
CEC Pledges to Publish Results in 24 Hours 
------------------------------------------ 
 
10. (SBU) On November 28, CEC Chairman Onalsyn Zhumabekov 
told Ambassador Ordway that the CEC would publish 
preliminary results of the vote within 24 hours after the 
polls close.  "Given the huge territory of our country and 
long distances between our settlements, we have assumed a 
difficult commitment to publish preliminary results of the 
election within 24 hours after the end of the voting," 
Zhumabekov said. "In addition, we have pledged to publish 
the results by precincts on our web site," Zhumabekov 
pointed out.  The CEC plans to announce the official 
results within 10 days, by December 14.  Representatives 
of the press were present at the meeting and reported 
Zhumabekov's commitment widely. 
 
11. (U) In order to streamline the voting process, the CEC 
issued resolutions on printing and delivering paper 
ballots to precincts, on specifying IDs that voters would 
have to present at voting stations, and on procedures on 
the issuance of protocols at precincts where voting would 
be done both by paper ballots and e-voting.  According to 
Zhumabekov, 15% of precincts would be equipped with the e- 
voting system, which would allow 32% of voters to vote 
electronically. 
 
12. (U) The Sailau e-voting system still remains a major 
point of controversy.  On November 24, the public 
integrity committee issued a positive assessment of the 
Sailau e-voting system, claiming it was user-friendly and 
secure.  The opposition, however, is concerned that the e- 
voting system is vulnerable to manipulation.  The CEC 
announced that the Sailau system would be put into 
operation at 3:00 AM on December 4. 
 
Legislation to Lift Ban on Rallies 
----------------------------------- 
 
13. (U) On November 28, Zhumabekov informed Ambassador 
Ordway that amendments lifting the ban on rallies and 
demonstrations during the period after the voting day and 
before official announcement of the results had been 
received by Parliament.  Responding to a question whether 
the amendments could be passed before December 4, 
Zhumabekov said it was a constitutional law to be amended, 
which would require at least two readings at a joint 
session of both houses of Parliament.  As of December 2 
the legislation had not been approved. 
 
Election Observers 
------------------ 
 
14. (SBU) On November 28, the CEC accredited 163 
representatives of foreign mass media.  As of November 28, 
1,590 foreign observers and journalists had been 
accredited including, 201 foreign observers from 27 
countries, 473 OSCE/BDIHR observers from 42 countries, 417 
CIS observers, 107 observers from 8 international 
organizations, and 392 representatives of foreign mass 
media from 23 countries.  The accreditation process ended 
on November 28. (Note: the final observer figure will be 
slightly higher, as accreditation for 16 U.S. Embassy 
observers was issued after the deadline due to delays at 
the MFA. End note.) 
 
15. (U) CEC Chairman Zhumabekov spoke highly of the CEC's 
cooperation with the OSCE/ODIHR and other observer 
missions.  Zhumabekov characterized the second interim 
 
 
report by the OSCE/ODIHR EOM as generally impartial.  He 
said that the CEC had adopted half of the recommendations 
made by OSCE observers, including annulling the use of 
envelopes for paper ballots and granting permission to 
interpreters to escort international observers and 
reporters. 
 
16. (SBU) On November 24, ENEMO held a press conference to 
announce that the group had managed to register with the 
CEC under the auspices of NDI (reftel).  The press 
conference elicited an immediate reaction from the 
procuracy, which warned ENEMO that it could not make any 
independent statements because it can only operate as a 
part of the NDI observation mission.  Post has been 
working with ENEMO and NDI to ensure that future 
statements are presented in a way consistent with ENEMO's 
status. 
 
Local NGO Denied Accreditation 
------------------------------ 
 
17.  (U) On November 29, a local NGO known as the Election 
& Democracy International Association (EDIA) held a press 
conference in Almaty to announce that their request for 
accreditation as election observers had been denied by the 
MFA.  According to EDIA's president, Pavel Lobachev, on 
November 16 the MFA notified him that his request for 
accreditation had been denied because the group did not 
meet the definition of an "international organization" as 
defined by Kazakhstani law.  EDIA was not recognized as an 
international organization because it was registered as an 
NGO in Kazakhstan. (Note: EDIA, which was founded in 2004, 
received accreditation to observe last year's legislative 
elections. Its report was generally positive, causing some 
journalists to speculate that the MFA's interpretation of 
the law was actually aimed at other observation missions 
like CIS-EMO and that EDIA unfortunately fell into the 
same category.  Lobachev did not object to this reasoning. 
End note.) 
 
Kyrgyzstanis Deported 
--------------------- 
 
18. (U) On November 27, more than one hundred nationals of 
Kyrgyzstan were deported from Kazakhstan.  They were 
detained in Almaty by Zhetysy district police officers in 
the morning of November 27.  The detainees claimed that 
they were forced into two buses, without explanation, and 
taken to the Korday border post.  The police confiscated 
their migration cards and marked their passports with 
deportation stamps, which bars the holder entry into 
Kazakhstan for 3to 5 years.  Kyrgyzstani officials are 
reportedly investigating the matter.  The Express K 
newspaper speculated on November 30 that those deported 
were "revolutionists" seeking to breach civic order. 
"They were offended because were not allowed to help 
export revolution to brotherly Kazakhstan.  At the same 
time, some internet sites in Kyrgyzstan carried 
information saying that the deported Kyrgyzstani migrants 
were getting ready to carry out a revolution on behalf of 
their Kazakh brothers," the newspaper reported. 
 
19.  (U) On November 30, Kazakhstan's Ambassador to 
Kyrgyzstan, Umurzak Uzbekov, said that 108 Kyrgyzstani 
citizens had been deported from Kazakhstan because they 
were staying in the country illegally.  "All of them had 
been working in Almaty markets.  They had no registration 
and had no rights to do business."  (Interfax, November 
30) 
 
Security Tightened on Kazakhstan-Kyrgyzstan Border 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
20. (SBU) Kazakhstan has tightened security on its border 
with Kyrgyzstan, the National Security Committee (KNB) 
announced on November 29.  New security measures will 
include increasing the number of border guards, rotating 
guards more frequently, and tightening border control 
procedures.  "The regime has been established to prevent 
undesirable elements from getting into the country," the 
KNB said.  Although the press characterized the measures 
as the closure of the border, the KNB stressed that the 
measures represented a tightening of control rather than 
closure.  In discussions with Embassy representatives, 
 
 
Border Guard officials would not confirm any link to the 
presidential elections. 
 
21. (SBU) Kazakhstan's ambassador to Kyrgyzstan explicitly 
linked the two events, however.  In a November 30 press 
conference in Bishkek, Ambassador Umurzak Uzbekov stated 
that "a temporary regime restricting the crossing of the 
Kyrgyzstan-Kazakhstan border has been imposed since 
November 28 due to the presidential election in 
Kazakhstan."  "According to our Kyrgyzstani colleagues, 
there is a big flood' of drugs and weapons being 
trafficked through the Central Asia, including the 
territory of Kyrgyzstan.  The tightened regime for 
crossing the border is related to ensuring security during 
the election.  This regime may remain until December 8. 
The regime does not impede cross border travel Kyrgyzstani 
citizens who have diplomatic and service passports and who 
are visiting Kazakhstan for service purposes or family 
problems," Uzbekov added.  (Interfax, November 30) 
 
Police Operations Intensify 
--------------------------- 
 
22. (U) On November 30, Prime Minister Daniyal Akhmetov 
ordered the Ministry of Emergency Situations and the 
Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources to tighten 
security over strategically important facilities including 
ones that provide utilities. 
 
23. (U) On November 25, about 20,000 policemen were 
deployed to provide security for election precincts.  A 
coordination center for police operations related to the 
elections was set up at the Ministry of Internal Affairs. 
All police stations have mobilized teams of investigators 
to act on any possible violations of the law.  The number 
of police patrols was increased. (Note: Post has no 
information to corroborate a kub.kz report that MOD troops 
have been sent to Almaty, Astana, and Shymkent to provide 
reinforced security.  End note.) 
 
Universities Dismissed Early 
---------------------------- 
 
24. (SBU) A representative of the OSCE/ODIHR EOM confirmed 
to POEC chief on December 2 that the mission had verified 
reports that universities in Almaty had released their 
students early in order to discourage political activism 
and/or protests.  Some students were threatened with 
expulsion if they remained at school and took part in 
political activities. 
 
 
Candidates Present Campaign Speeches 
------------------------------------ 
 
25. (U) The four challengers chose to use their government- 
provided 15 minutes of airtime on Kazakhstan One late in 
the campaign.  Baymenov's address was aired on November 
30, Eleusizov's on November 29, and Abylkasymov and 
Tuyakbay's on November 28.  The national television 
channel initially refused to air Tuyakbay's taped address, 
however, citing article 29 of the election law which makes 
it a crime to spread ideas that promote social discord. 
After intervention by the CEC, the station aired the 
address in full. 
 
CEC Pledges Fair Access to Media 
-------------------------------- 
 
26.  (U) "The rights of candidates to place their campaign 
materials in official mass media at the expense of the 
state will be fully realized," CEC chairman Zhumabekov 
said on November 29.  Zhumabekov noted that 
Kazakhstanskaya Pravda and Yegemen Kazakhstan published an 
address by Tuyakbay in Kazakh on November 29.  Earlier in 
the week, both newspapers refused to publish Tuyakbay's 
statement because it contained a reference to the regime 
as authoritarian.  In response, Tuyakbay's headquarters 
submitted a complaint to the CEC.  In reference to 
Tuyakbay's complaint, Zhumabekov commented that "The law 
allows the editor to examine materials and to make his 
decision on whether to publish or not the material 
depending on the content.  The editors acted according to 
the rights provided by the law.  Candidates who were 
 
 
denied publication can appeal the ruling with the court." 
 
Update on Nurkadilov's Death 
---------------------------- 
 
27. (U) An anonymous source from the Ministry of Internal 
Affairs was quoted by Interfax on November 29 as saying 
that Zamanbek Nurkadilov committed suicide.  The source 
reportedly said that "the cause for the suicide was family 
conflicts and quarrels with his wife Makpal Zhunusova. 
According to the investigation, on the eve of his death 
Nurkadilov was depressed.  Empty boxes of strong sleeping 
pills - Imovan and Semnol - were found on the scene." 
28. (U) The same day in Almaty, Serikkali Musin, Makpal 
Zhunusova's lawyer, held a press conference to brief 
journalists on the investigation.  "Suicide is out of the 
question.  We believe it was a murder.  Murder on the 
grounds of family conflicts is impossible.  A third party 
is responsible," Musin said.  According to Musin, on 
November 24 the police examined the scene and found 
numerous blood tracks all over the building including the 
corridor, the bathroom, and the adjacent rooms.  Musin 
suggested the tracks were evidence of resistance.  Police 
also examined Zhunusova's fingers and clothes for traces 
of gunpowder and the results were negative, Musin said. He 
claimed that the body was covered by a sheet when 
discovered, with the gun on top of the sheet.  Musin said 
that Zhusupov did not attend the press conference because 
she was depressed and on the verge of a breakdown due to 
pressure from her husband's relatives and the police. 
 
ORDWAY