US embassy cable - 02HARARE2784

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 002784 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON, ELAB, PHUM, PGOV, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZCTU LEADERS ARRESTED IN ADVANCE OF FIZZLED 
NCA/MDC-SPONSORED STAYAWAY 
 
REF: A. HARARE 02620 
     B. HARARE 02726 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED, NOT FOR INTERNET POSTING 
 
1.(SBU)  Summary.  Reports indicate that eleven senior 
members of the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU) were 
arrested by Zimbabwean police the day before a planned 
mass-action stayaway which the ZCTU had not even endorsed. 
Participation in the stayaway has been sporadic -- possibly 
because the ZCTU failed to support the stayaway call, which 
originated from the leadership of the National Constitutional 
Assembly (NCA) and the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). 
Anecdotal reports indicate that while traffic on Harare 
streets is only marginally lighter than normal, at most only 
25-30% of workers have actually heeded the call to stay home 
from work within the capital city, and 20% may have 
participated nationwide -- figures that may well prove 
optimistic.  The ultimate success or failure of eventual mass 
action could depend upon the evolving situation of the ZCTU's 
detained leadership, who ironically chose not to support the 
abortive stayaway.  End summary. 
 
ZCTU Leaders Pay the Political Price Despite Attempts to 
Distance Themselves 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
2. (SBU)  Wellington Chibebe, secretary general of the ZCTU 
and a very recent IVP visitor to the US, along with ten other 
high-level ZCTU leaders, was picked up by the police late in 
the evening of December 9 at a labor seminar sponsored by the 
AFL-CIO's Solidarity Center.  According to reports, the 
eleven were removed from the seminar by police although there 
is no indication that they were charged with any criminal 
activity.  Attorneys are urgently attempting to locate the 
eleven as well as obtain their release through the courts. 
In typical GOZ fashion, the eleven detainees were not 
immediately taken to a police station or charged, although 
our contacts have heard unconfirmed reports that they are 
currently being kept in two separate police stations in the 
Mbare high-density area.  Solidarity Center contacts state 
that attorneys have not been granted access to the detainees 
and have received no report on their condition.  When (and 
if) charges are actually brought, the eleven detainees are 
likely to be charged with violating the repressive Public 
Order and Security Act (POSA).  The ZCTU has been very wary 
of endorsing a mass-action stayaway without clear support 
from the rank-and-file membership, reftel b, and they have 
neither advised their membership to participate nor to flout 
the call for a stayaway.  Despite this public neutrality, the 
GOZ has chosen the ZCTU as the most visible target of its 
official displeasure at the call for mass action. 
 
NCA Estimates 20% Nationwide Participation 
------------------------------------------ 
 
3. (SBU)  Dr. Lovemore Madhuku, chairperson of the NCA, 
confirmed that he was aware of the ZCTU arrests, and stated 
that he is currently in hiding due to reports that the GOZ is 
also searching for the NCA's leaders.  Madhuku believes that 
they have achieved 25-30% participation in the stayaway among 
workers in the Harare area, although the response outside of 
Harare is believed to be much lower.  Currently, the NCA's 
reports indicate 10% participation in Bulawayo and 20% 
participation in Mutare, Gweru and Masvingo.  Overall, 
Madhuku estimates a 20% participation rate nationwide. 
 
4. (SBU)  Madhuku speculated on several causes which might 
have had an impact on participation.  He stated that (as with 
the failed ZCTU stayaway in March) a lack of clear 
communication may have limited worker response.  Madhuku also 
theorized that some employers may have refused to grant 
absence without pay, which could have dampened the enthusiasm 
of some workers in this harsh economic climate, especially as 
the expensive outlays of the annual holiday season approach. 
One strategy contemplated by the NCA was to have youths stand 
at commuter omnibus stops to prevent workers from boarding 
public transport.  However, due to reported police presence 
at some bus stops this morning, that strategy apparently 
failed.  There are unconfirmed reports of protests in some of 
the high density areas, including reports that a commuter 
omnibus was set on fire by youths in the Kuwadzana area. 
(Comment:  Kuwadzana was the former seat of recently deceased 
MDC parliamentarian Learnmore Jongwe.  This area, which will 
be strongly contested by ZANU-PF in the upcoming by-election, 
has been the recipient of massive political attention -- 
including reports of food distributions solely benefitting 
ZANU-PF cardholders -- in recent weeks.  End comment.) 
 
Companies Report Little Impact 
------------------------------ 
 
5. (SBU)  Although many employers are reluctant to give much 
information over the phone due to fears of GOZ retribution, 
several firms with American ties report little impact from 
the stayaway.  While most companies are open for business, 
several have reported that some workers were late but ascribe 
this to the ever-present transport difficulties. 
 
Street Traffic Lighter, Security Presence Heavier than Usual 
--------------------------------------------- --------------- 
 
6. (SBU)  The traffic on the streets -- both pedestrian and 
vehicular -- is somewhat lighter than usual, although there 
are several alternative explanations.  Zimbabwean schools are 
not in session, which generally means less omnibus traffic. 
In the downtown area, anecdotal reports indicate that in 
areas where parking spaces were completely occupied by 0830 
yesterday morning, only about 2/3 were occupied at the same 
time this morning.  While some observers attribute this to 
the fuel shortage rather than participation in the stayaway, 
others note that those who drive private vehicles -- managers 
and professionals -- would be less likely to support a mass 
action stayaway than the rank-and-file workers, who are more 
likely to commute via commuter omnibus. 
 
7. (SBU)  There is an increased military and police presence 
on the streets, although even the MDC concedes that this is 
"nothing too significant."  Laboff and visiting Deskoff, 
returning from an offsite meeting, noticed a passing 
transport truck loaded with police decked out in riot gear. 
Despite the increased security presence, there have been no 
reports of confrontations between security forces and 
stayaway supporters in the business districts.  However, two 
separate sources have reported confrontations with police in 
Chitungwiza and Mabvuku, high-density areas surrounding 
Harare, in which people stoned vehicles including public 
transport buses. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
8. (SBU)  Consistent with previous expectations, see reftels 
a and b, there was little hope of widespread participation in 
this stayaway without massive buy-in from labor groups as 
well as other members of civic society.  Although the NCA and 
the MDC were hoping for support from the ZCTU, the labor 
organization has never publicly endorsed the calls for mass 
action optimistically scheduled for this week.  The ZCTU has 
been very reluctant to call for participation in an action 
which was not widely communicated and clearly destined to 
succeed.  The GOZ's actions in pre-emptively arresting the 
ZCTU's leadership, however, speak loudly to the nervousness 
of ZANU-PF.  These arrests, ironically, may well spur the 
ZCTU to a more aggressive response than they would otherwise 
have chosen.  With eleven top ZCTU elected officials arrested 
despite their failure to endorse a mass stayaway, the GOZ may 
have forced the ZCTU into a corner from which calls for mass 
action are the only legitimate response. 
WHITEHEAD