US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI4786

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 004786 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, TW, Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION SCENE SETTER: TAOYUAN COUNTY, KMT 
CONFIDENT DESPITE RECENT CONTROVERSY 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: Incumbent Kuomintang (KMT) Taoyuan County 
Magistrate Eric Chu (Li-lun) continues to coast toward 
reelection in Taoyuan despite the publicity given to a 
controversial, politically motivated "extraordinary video" 
that accuses Chu of official and personal misconduct.  The 
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) denies any link to the 
video but nonetheless offered a copy to AIT.  DPP candidate 
Cheng Pao-ching staged two protests after being summoned to 
testify as a witness in the video disc probe, apparently 
hoping to gain sympathy votes.  The KMT is justifiably 
confident that Chu, who tied for the highest approval ratings 
of all city mayors and county magistrates in Taiwan in a 
recent poll, will win handily in what is widely considered a 
safe "Blue" district.  End Summary. 
 
KMT: The Confident Incumbent 
----------------------------- 
2. (C) KMT Taoyuan County Chairman Fu Chung-hsiung told AIT 
that approximately 60 percent of Taoyuan voters support the 
Pan-Blue camp, adding that in the last presidential and 
magistrate elections, the Pan-Blue camp garnered 10 percent 
more votes than the Pan-Green camp.  According to Fu, 90 
percent of Taoyuan's Mainlander and Hakka voters (who account 
for 49 percent of the general population) and 50 percent of 
Taiwanese voters are Pan-Blue supporters.  Fu also estimated 
that the voter turnout rate will be 65 percent and suggested 
that a high voter turnout rate will benefit incumbent KMT 
Magistrate Chu Li-lun and the KMT.  Acknowledging that DPP 
supporters are historically more enthusiastic about casting 
their ballots than KMT supporters, Fu criticized the DPP for 
creating conflicts or other "incidents" to target the 
sympathy vote and unite their supporters. 
 
3. (C) Fu attributed Magistrate Chu's commanding lead in the 
polls to his strong performance in office.  Fu told AIT that 
Chu promoted several development projects, has made strenuous 
efforts to keep businesses in Taoyuan and has encouraged 
investment.  As a result, Fu claimed, Taoyuan's tax revenues 
are higher than any other city or county in Taiwan and the 
unemployment rate has dropped from 5 to 3 percent.  Fu told 
AIT that despite the recent negative campaigning, which he 
said is common in Taiwan, voters are most concerned with 
candidates' qualifications and their development plans for 
the county.  Fu was confident that the "extraordinary video" 
will not impact Chu's campaign and he suggested most voters 
are aware of the political motive behind the disc.  Fu noted 
that KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou has made three visits to 
Taoyuan but will not be making any additional appearances 
since the KMT views Taoyuan as a safe district. 
 
DPP: On the Attack 
------------------- 
4. (C) DPP Taoyuan County Advisory Committee Chairman Hu 
Tsung-wen criticized Magistrate Eric Chu's social welfare 
 
SIPDIS 
policies, especially for breaking his promise to increase 
subsidies for the elderly.  In response, Hu said, DPP 
candidate Cheng Pao-ching has promised to increase senior 
citizens' pensions and also provide free lunches for primary 
school children.  Hu also accused Chu of unfair treatment of 
Taiwanese military veterans, saying Mainlander military 
veterans receive a monthly pension while native Taiwanese do 
not receive a subsidy.  Finally, Hu criticized Magistrate Chu 
for living with his family in Taipei City rather than 
Taoyuan, and he suggested that Chu is more concerned about 
running for Taipei City Mayor and helping large companies 
profit than helping the residents of Taoyuan County. 
 
5. (C) Chairman Hu insisted that Lin I-fang, the producer of 
the "extraordinary video," has no connection to the DPP or 
Cheng Pao-ching.  DPP candidate Cheng, angry at being 
summoned for questioning about the video, staged his second 
hunger strike the same morning AIT visited Taoyuan, garnering 
sympathy from elderly Taiwanese voters.  Hu told AIT that 
even though the DPP is not behind the "extraordinary video," 
the party does agree with some of its accusations against 
Magistrate Chu Li-lun and without being asked, Hu provided 
AIT with a copy of the disc. 
 
Comment 
------- 
6. (C) This is one of the easiest races to call.  Chu has 
received strong popular support throughout the campaign.  His 
DPP opponent is not one of the rising stars that the ruling 
party put in some of the more competitive races against KMT 
incumbents.  Chu has told AIT that he is committed to serving 
out his term if reelected.  He then hopes to move to a major 
cabinet position.  End comment. 
Paal