US embassy cable - 05TEGUCIGALPA2429

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEGUCIGALPA 002429 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA, WHA/PPC, WHA/USOAS, AND WHA/CEN 
NSC FOR DAN FISK 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2035 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, ECON, KCRM, PINR, HO 
SUBJECT: HONDURAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS DAY 5 - LOBO 
NEARING CONCESSION AS ZELAYA LEAD NOW AT 3.35 PERCENT 
 
REF: TEGUCIGALPA 2425 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Charles A. Ford; 
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary: The Honduran Supreme Electoral Tribunal's 
(TSE) official count of the November 27 national elections 
continues with significant progress having been made in the 
last 12 hours with the gap between Liberal Party presidential 
candidate Manuel "Mel" Zelaya and National Party presidential 
candidate Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo continuing to widen - it now 
stands at 3.35 percent.  Honduras remains in a calm state of 
waiting.  Evidence continues of voting irregularities causing 
National (and some Liberal) Party officials to publicly 
question the electoral process, though these allegations are 
unlikely to affect the Presidential race.  End Summary. 
 
Rollin', Rollin', Rollin', Keep those Votes 'a Rollin' 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
2. (SBU) As of 10:56am local time, the TSE had tabulated 
69.77 percent of the electoral tables.  Zelaya leads Lobo 
49.63 percent (735,002 votes) to 46.28 percent (685,387 
votes); a 3.35 percent lead.  These numbers include 
approximately 78 percent of the Cortes Department (Zelaya has 
a 8.3 percent lead in Cortes at present), including San Pedro 
Sula, and 85 percent of Francisco Morazan Department (Lobo 
has a 5 percent lead in Francisco Morazan), including 
Tegucigalpa. 
 
3. (SBU) PolOffs were informed the morning of December 1 that 
the Supreme Electoral Tribunal's (TSE) sorting warehouse in 
Tegucigalpa has received 100 percent of the voting counts 
done by electoral tables, with 76 percent of vote counts 
already at the TSE's tabulation center.  The remainder of the 
vote counts are expected to reach the tabulation center by 
the afternoon of December 1.  The TSE sorting warehouse 
received the missing three electoral tables from the 
Department of Olancho, but are still trying to track down 
missing or incomplete materials from the city of San Pedro 
Sula.  The military has been exemplary in fulfilling its role 
of helping to ensure a peaceful electoral process and 
transporting and protecting the vote counts from the 
individual Departments. 
 
4. (SBU) At approximately 11:00am on December 1, the 
Ambassador, DCM, PolChief, and PolOffs visited the TSE 
tabulation center.  The Ambassador met with the three TSE 
magistrates (and one alternate magistrate) to discuss the 
situation and updates before receiving a tour of the 
tabulation center.  The Ambassador then met with Marcelo 
Escolar, an Argentine electoral consultant for the TSE. 
Escolar showed the Ambassador his vote tracking software and 
gave a computer tour of where things stand in each of the 
Departments.  He projected that Zelaya would ultimately win 
by 5 to 6 percent, as predicted by the TSE quick count which 
he helped conduct.  Upon exiting the TSE tabulation center, 
the Ambassador was mobbed by reporters hungry for information 
about the election.  The Ambassador spoke about the 
importance of a transparent election process to democracy and 
congratulated the TSE on its efforts.  He also noted there 
were clear tendencies to the results, as far as a projected 
winner, but did not say the Embassy had recognized a winner. 
 
Arguments Over Individual Electoral Tables 
------------------------------------------ 
 
5. (SBU) According to the Honduran newspaper El Heraldo, 
approximately 300 Nationalist lawyers have announced that 
they are looking into the possibility of challenging the 
results of the general election.  They have formed a group 
committed to "the defense of the Nationalist vote," insisting 
that there are more that 1,200 lawyers total who would 
support this effort.  The group cites various complaints of 
irregularities and blames the TSE President Aristides Mejia 
as a "power usurper" who has unilaterally made decisions in 
favor of the Liberal Party.  (Note: While questioning of 
irregular ballots is possible, it is more likely that such a 
scenario will be about Congressional, and possibly Mayoral, 
vote counts, and not about the Presidential race.  Escolar 
did mention to the Ambassador that they are seeing 
approximately 9 percent of vote counts with irregularities. 
The TSE Magistrates said this percentage is less than in the 
February primaries.  For that 9 percent (about 200 plus 
electoral tables at this point), the TSE, as in the 
primaries, plans to reconstitute electoral tables with all 
five parties to recount the votes and establish accurate vote 
counts.  End Note.) 
 
Lobo Ready to Throw in the Towel? 
--------------------------------- 
 
6 (C) Early morning December 1, Pepe Lobo phoned the 
Ambassador to report that he intends to "end" things later 
this morning, or by the evening of December 1 at latest. 
Later in the morning, the Ambassador phoned Lobo to give him 
a head's up of his intentions to visit the TSE tabulation 
center and speak with the press.  PolChief gave Zelaya 
Campaign Manager Hugo Noe Pino advance notice of the 
Ambassador's planned TSE tour and press conference.  Both 
parties, as well as chief of the OAS Electoral Observation 
Mission Moises Benamor, thought that the TSE tour and press 
comments were a good ideas.  During the Ambassador's second 
conversation with Lobo, he gave "his word" that he would 
concede the election later this evening and that he was 
working on his concession speech.  As nothing in Honduras 
happens quickly, this tease of concession remains a 
wait-and-see scenario. 
 
7. (C) Comment: With stamina dwindling on all sides of this 
electoral process, Post is optimistic that a concession will 
happen soon.  While there is no direct reason to doubt what 
Lobo told the Ambassador, the prudent action would be to 
patiently wait and see.  The Embassy believes that it is 
clear that the final vote tabulation will show Zelaya has won 
the election.  Once Lobo concedes, the transition can finally 
begin and the parties can fight over congressional and 
mayoral elections.  End Comment. 
Ford