US embassy cable - 05CALGARY706

UNCLAS CALGARY 000706 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR OEA/IHA (CRODDY, FOSTER, SINGER, DALEY), WHA/CAN 
(NELSON), M/MED/DASHO 
(TRIPLETT) 
 
STATE PLEASE PASS TO DHHA AND CDC 
 
DHHA FOR BILL STEIGER AND ROSE BROWNRIDGE, OFFICE OF GLOBAL 
HEALTH 
 
CDC FOR ROBERT BALDWIN, OFFICE OF GLOBAL HEALTH 
 
USDA FOR APHIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: TBIO, KSCA, SOCI, PREL, CA, WHO, KSTH, Avian flu 
SUBJECT: FOUL FOWL FLU FIGHTERS 
 
1. (U) Taking advantage of the media frenzy generated by the 
recent discoveries of a low pathogenic strain of avian flu in 
British Columbia and California, the Calgary Health Region (CHR) 
board announced on November 29 its strategy for combating 
pandemic outbreaks. Experts predict that, in the event of the 
avian flu's mutation into a form transmitted by human contact, 
up to 743,000 Calgary residents could be infected, resulting in 
a minimum of 1,600 deaths. 
 
2. (U) The CHR's plan focuses resources on those traditionally 
most vulnerable to pandemic outbreaks: children, the infirm, and 
the elderly. If the disease appears to target the young, health 
officials advise the closure of schools and day cares across 
Calgary. Additionally, the plan calls for the stockpiling of two 
to three months worth of all critical medical supplies in 
Calgary, in case of regional supply line disruptions. CHR's 
strategy has been questioned by some because of the potential 
for huge staffing shortfalls in the event of a major health 
crisis. The CHR plan would convert numerous hotels and 
rehabilitation centers into makeshift influenza clinics, with 
bed space for 8,500; health professionals predict many of their 
staff simply wouldn't show up in the case of a pandemic, raising 
concerns in a region already faced by chronic nursing shortages. 
 
3. (U) Capital Health, CHR's counterpart in Edmonton, has been 
developing a more comprehensive pandemic strategy since 1999. 
Capital tests its own infrastructure regularly to ensure its 
readiness in case of a major health crisis. Operation Outbreak, 
earlier this year, simulated the impact of a pandemic in 
Edmonton, with health care managers faced with overcrowded 
clinics, staff numbers down by a third, and extremely 
high-stress environments. Capital is also in the process of 
preparing local corporations for the possibility of 37% 
absenteeism rates during an outbreak. Capital's Dr. Gerry Predy 
has pointed to the "disastrous mismanagement" of hurricane 
relief in New Orleans as a possible outcome, if Edmonton does 
not continue to build an effective model for dealing with 
pandemics. 
 
4. (U) Any action on the part of the CHR or Edmonton would 
likely be in conjunction with the province, which recently 
formulated its own strategy for minimizing the impact of a 
pandemic. The Alberta government has purchased enough Tamiflu 
for 260,000 people, which would be administered to those 
segments of the population most affected, such as nursing homes 
and health care workers. The province also has in place a 
network of 48 health care workers named "Sentinels" whose job it 
is to monitor flu cases across Alberta, and report back findings 
to the Provincial Laboratory in Edmonton. Whether H5N1, current 
bogeyman of the health community, or an as yet unidentified 
viral strain mutates into a threat to humans, health experts 
predict that it is only a matter of time before Alberta is faced 
with a new pandemic. Calgary Mayor Dave Bronconnier says the 
city, and the province, has no choice but to prepare now noting, 
"(we must) ensure that in the event that this does take place, 
Calgary is ready". 
AHMED