US embassy cable - 05BAGHDAD4806

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 004806 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, IZ, SA, Elections, Sunni Arab, Ba'ath 
SUBJECT: NATIONAL DIALOGUE COUNCIL MEMBER ON  ELECTIONS, 
SUNNI OUTREACH, AND BA'ATH PARTY 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR KHALILZAD FOR REASONS 1.4 
(B) AND (D). 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY.  National Dialogue Council member 
Mahmoud Mashadani told the Ambassador November 29 that 
Iraqi Security Forces are preventing campaigning and 
that terrorists are targeting Tawafoq (consensus) 
leaders.  He called for a national unity government 
after the election.  He also said his coalition is 
working to get armed Sunni groups and Ba'athists to 
participate in the political process.  He reported on 
a recent visit of Tawafoq representatives to Tehran 
where they met with Rafsanjani.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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PRE-ELECTION ASSESSMENT: ACCEPTABLE, BUT SUFFERING 
FROM SECURITY FORCES, TERRORISTS, AND LACK OF FUNDING 
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2. (C) The Ambassador met November 29 with Mahmoud 
Mashadani of the National Dialogue Council (one of 
three parties in the Tawafoq Coalition, the leading 
Sunni bloc).  Although he termed the current pre- 
election situation "acceptable," Mashadani said 
Tawafoq members are suffering from the Iraqi Security 
Forces that are preventing campaigning and from groups 
(al-Qaida and al-Zarqawi) that are trying to 
assassinate them.  Mashadani asked that the USG tell 
the GoI to order officers to stop tearing down 
campaign posters and end raids until after the 
election. 
 
3. (C) Mashadani said he would be traveling to Kuwait 
and Saudi Arabia to try to secure funding for Tawafoq, 
but that time is running short. 
 
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POST-ELECTION ASSESSMENT: NEED UNITY GOVERNMENT AND 
STRONG MINISTRY OF HUMAN RIGHTS 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
4. (C) Mashadani speculated that the Shia Alliance 
will receive 70 seats, the Kurdish Alliance 50-55 
seats, Tawafoq 40-50 seats, and the Iraqi National 
List 15-30 seats.  He said Tawafoq will be the 
legitimate leader of the Sunni Community in the 
Council of Representatives. 
 
5. (C) Mashadani praised the investigation of the 
Bunker detention facility and related abuses.  The 
Ambassador assured him that the Embassy will continue 
to pursue this matter and that investigations will 
happen at other facilities.  Mashadani agreed with the 
assessment that it is crucial that the next 
government's Minister of Interior not be linked to 
militia groups.  Mashadani said the Ministry of Human 
Rights (MoHR) should have executive powers and courts 
because if human rights are respected then the 
situation will improve. 
 
6. (C) Mashadani said that "for us to succeed and 
finish the transitional period," Iraq will need a 
national unity government.  If any one group is 
excluded, there will be problems.  Ministries should 
be allotted to the electoral blocs according to the 
percentage received in the election.  He said MoHR 
should go to Tawafoq and MOD to the Kurds (for two 
years), and expressed his personal preference for Adel 
Abd' al-Mahdi as Prime Minister. 
 
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SECURITY ESSENTIAL 
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7. (S) Mashadani told the Ambassador that security 
will remain a problem if proper attention is not paid 
to it.  He said Tawafoq has played an honest mediator 
role to convince most armed Sunni groups to disarm as 
the political process continues.  The Ambassador 
encouraged Tawafoq to continue to play this role and 
said the US would do what it could to support the 
effort. 
 
8. (S) Mashadani told the Ambassador that he and other 
Tawafoq representatives had recently returned from 
Jordan and Iran, where they met with Akbar Hashemi 
Rafsanjani.  He said the Tawafoq members told 
Rafsanjani they would do what they could to help calm 
the Iraqi insurgency, and they urged Rafsanjani to 
exhort Badr Corps to ratchet down its activities as 
well.  They warned the Iranians that there will be a 
civil war if the Sunnis are prevented from 
participating in the elections.  Rafsanjani reportedly 
responded by referring to the January elections and 
saying that ?we did not prevent you, the Americans 
did.? 
 
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FUTURE OF BA?ATH PARTY 
---------------------- 
 
9. (C) Mashadani produced a statement from the Ba'ath 
Party that he said had some positive aspects (e.g., 
belief in democracy) and some negative ones (e.g., 
allegations that upcoming election results are already 
pre-cooked and that civil war will result from the 
increased arming of Shia groups).  He said the basic 
Ba'athist demands have not changed: release all 
detainees, withdraw Coalition forces, and allow former 
soldiers back into the armed forces. 
10. (C) In response to a question about the future of 
the now outlawed Ba'ath Party, Mashadani acknowledged 
that the leadership has made many mistakes.  He added 
that the Tawafoq members are trying to contain the 
Ba'athists and engage them in the political process. 
This calls for them to move away from old Ba?athist 
ideas to new national and cultural ideas and to keep 
the party from being a destructive element.  Mashadani 
emphasized that Tawafoq is trying to deal with the 
Ba?athists but is not "with" them. 
KHALILZAD