US embassy cable - 05CAIRO8990

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 008990 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC STAFF FOR SINGH 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, ASEC, EG, Parliamentary elections, Parliamentary Elections 
SUBJECT: EGYPT:  THIRD ROUND OF PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 
MARRED BY VIOLENCE AND BLOCKADES OF POLL ACCESS 
 
REF: CAIRO 8786 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified by DCM Stuart Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1.  (C)  Egypt's third and final round of parliamentary 
elections got underway on December 1 amid reports of hundreds 
of arrests of Muslim Brotherhood (MB) supporters.  Polling 
stations in the areas visited by emboffs tended either to be 
calm amid very light turnout, or cordoned off by security 
police who allowed inconsistent access by voters, 
particularly those who appeared to support the MB.  There 
were multiple confirmed reports of clashes of rival 
supporters as well use by the security forces of tear gas and 
rubber bullets.  One supporter of the small Karama Party 
appears to have been killed in Kafr El-Sheikh.  Results will 
likely begin to trickle out on Dec. 2, but as with the first 
two rounds, we expect many of the races to go to run-offs, 
which are scheduled for Wednesday, December 7.  End summary. 
 
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What's in Play 
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2.  (C)  Round three of the parliamentary elections included 
the Delta governorates of Kafr El-Shaikh, Daqahiliya, 
Damietta, and Sharqiya; the Upper Egypt governorate of Sohag; 
the Red Sea Governorate; and North and South Sinai.  Emboffs 
visited all of the Delta governorates on December 1, since 
they are home to the most races, voters, and MB challenges to 
the ruling NDP.  Nearly 2000 independent domestic monitors 
associated with the three major monitoring coalitions were 
also in the field.  Finally, about 18 NDI surveyors assessed 
the third round races. 
 
3.  (C)  The December 1 contests featured approximately 1700 
candidates running for 136 seats in 68 separate 
constituencies.  The ruling NDP fielded one candidate in each 
of the races.  MB candidates, nominally running as 
independents, challenged in 49 of the races.  Registered 
opposition parties, including the Wafd, Tagamua, Karama, and 
Nasserist parties fielded a smattering of candidates.  The 
remaining 1500 or so candidates comprised a motley collection 
of various NDP dissidents (i.e., local heavyweights who did 
not secure the party's nomination but decided to run 
anyway--and who will likely rejoin the Party if they win) and 
a much larger number of unknowns. 
 
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Key Trends on December 1 
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4.  (C)  Access:  Many polling stations visited by Emboffs in 
the Delta on December 1 appeared open and calm amid light 
security and a light turnout, albeit with a corresponding NDP 
presence.  Most rural polling stations were calm.  Other 
stations in urban areas where MB candidates were running, 
however, were under tight control of the security forces, 
which formed cordons around the stations. 
 
--In Zagazig, capital of Sharqiya, turn out at mid-day was 
very light at the polling stations we visited.  At several 
stations, young male supporters of NDP candidate Mahmoud 
Khamis were gathered outside the gates, dining on lunches 
provided by the candidate.  The supporters, who were all 
wielding sticks, told Emboff that they did not expect any MB 
voters to visit their polling stations. 
 
--Also in Zagazig, Emboffs made several visits at different 
points over the course of the afternoon to the station at the 
Nassiriya Elementary School, which had been cordoned off at 
mid-day after a scuffle inside.  (Incumbent MB Independent 
Mohammad Morsy, who has been a GOE critic in parliament for 
the past five years, was one of the candidates on the ballot 
at the Nassiriya station.)  Dozens of uniformed riot police 
formed a cordon around the station.  Inside the cordon, 
another thirty or so plainclothes officers brandishing clubs 
and radios waited in reserve.  Some voters presenting valid 
ID cards were being allowed through the cordon, but others 
were turned away.  One bearded man, yelling "God is Great," 
was ejected from the polling station while emboff watched. 
 
--Emboff in Damietta reported that polling stations in areas 
considered NDP strongholds appeared to be opening and 
functioning.  Stations in MB areas, however, were only 
inconsistently open by mid-day.  NDP activists in Damietta 
were issuing chits to NDP voters which appeared to allow 
these voters to cross the police lines at a number of 
stations in Damietta. 
--Emboff in Daqahiliya noted also that police cordons around 
many urban polling stations appeared in some cases to be 
enabling access by NDP voters and discouraging MB 
participation. 
 
5.  (C)  Violence:  There were numerous scattered reports of 
violence over the course of the day.  Most seriously, as of 
1800 local time, it appears that at least one supporter of 
the Neo-Nasserist Karama (Dignity) Party was killed during a 
clash with security forces in Kafr El-Sheikh.  Unconfirmed 
reports also suggested that Hamdeen Sabahi, a Karama 
leader/candidate had also been hospitalized with injuries 
suffered in the melee.  In addition, we are aware of the 
following other incidents: 
 
--In Mansura, capital of Daqahiliya, a New York Times staff 
photographer (protect), reported that he was chased away from 
a closed polling station by unidentified thugs bearing 
machetes. 
 
--In Kafr El-Sheikh, police briefly detained a reporter for 
Al-Jazeera, and released him after smashing his camera. 
 
--At various polling stations around Daqahiliya, emboff 
observed multiple clashes and high tensions between 
supporters of various candidates as well as police clashes 
with and arrests of MB supporters. 
 
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Domestic Observers Dismayed 
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6.  (SBU)  Key domestic monitoring groups funded jointly by 
USAID and MEPI both issued press releases sharply critical of 
the day's events.  The Independent Coalition for Elections 
Monitoring (ICEM) said that the arrests of more than 600 
opposition supporters (mostly MB) in the 48 hours prior to 
December 1 "adversely affects the credibility of government 
actions."  ICEM also noted that several of its observers had 
been warned by unknown persons not to pursue their monitoring 
work.  ICEM also noted the following: 
 
--an up-tick in denial of access by ICEM observers to polling 
stations by GOE officials. 
 
--three separate beatings of ICEM observers in Kafr El-Sheikh 
and Sohag, two by security forces and one by NDP activists. 
 
--arrests of MB "poll watchers" in Kafr El-Sheikh and Sohag. 
 
--multiple reports of "disenfranchisement of opposition 
voters" due to cordons and other denial of access by the 
security forces. 
 
7.  (SBU)  The Egyptian Association for Supporting Democracy 
(EASD) issued similar critical findings, condemning "the 
increasing security interventions that have led to the 
closing of polling stations, violence, and the ultimate 
exclusion of civil society monitors, candidate agents, and 
citizens from the voting process." 
 
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Comment 
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8.  (C)  The defining characteristic of round three so far 
appears to be an increase in security force cordons outside 
polling stations, which in turn appear to have limited access 
to the polls by non-NDP voters.  The ultimate effects of 
these tactics will only be clear once the results are 
announced, but the opposition and domestic monitors are 
already crying foul.  End comment. 
 
 
RICCIARDONE