US embassy cable - 05ADDISABABA3998

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 003998 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/FO, AF/E, AF/C, AF/RSA. 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS. 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ER, SO, ET, AF UNION, EE BORDER, SOMALIA 
SUBJECT: AF DAS YAMAMOTO AND AU COMMISSION CHAIRPERSON 
KONARE DISCUSS ETHIOPIAN POLITICAL CRISIS, ETHIOPIA-ERITREA 
BORDER AND SOMALIA 
 
 
Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES A.I. VICKI HUDDLESTON. REASON: 1.4 (B) 
 AND (D) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  During a November 28 meeting with AF DAS 
Donald Yamamoto, African Union (AU) Commission Chairperson 
Alpha Oumar Konare voiced concern that lack of progress on 
the internal political crisis in Ethiopia could push the 
country to war with Eritrea over the unresolved border issue. 
 He suggested that Rwandan President Kagame or South African 
President Mbeki could exert positive influence over Ethiopian 
PM Meles to pave the way for compromise with the Ethiopian 
opposition.  Konare stated that war between Ethiopia and 
Eritrea would spell disaster for Africa.  He advocated 
properly-prepared dialogue as the best way forward.  On 
Somalia, Konare said that dialogue backed up by limited 
assistance to enable Somalia to function as a state is the 
key to ensuring the country does not become a safehaven for 
Islamic extremists.  The AU plans to organize consultations 
with the international community regarding Somalia 
stabilization and post-conflict reconstruction.  Konare noted 
that the AU favors a political solution to the question of 
Somaliland and is not prepared to offer Somaliland observer 
status at the AU.  End summary. 
 
2. (U) Also present at the meeting were Charge, AF/RSA 
Military Advisor Col. Kevin Kenny, Poloff (notetaker), AU 
Peace and Security Commissioner Amb. Said Djinnit, and 
Director of the Chairperson's Cabinet Lamine Diallo. 
 
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INTERNAL POLITICS:  GETTING MELES OUT OF HIS CORNER 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
3. (C) Konare said that he is worried about the internal 
political situation in Ethiopia, which poses a difficult 
situation for a poor country.  While Konare said that PM 
Meles is to be commended for his federalist approach 
following a history of Ethiopian feudalism and communism, he 
stated that federalism without democracy will lead to civil 
war.  Konare noted that he enjoys frank dialogue with Meles 
and has urged Meles to take a chance through ceasing 
arbitrary arrests and night arrests, allowing access to those 
imprisoned, and entering into dialogue with the opposition 
without the precondition that they enter parliament.  Konare 
sensed that trying CUD leaders for treason will only 
exacerbate tensions and close the door on dialogue.  He said 
that he told Meles that the right of assembly is part of 
democracy.  The GOE needs to learn to live with opposition 
protests and to stop using deadly force, he said. 
 
4. (C) Konare said that PM Meles appears to have backed 
himself into a corner and has hardened his position.  While 
Ethiopia's friends want to help Meles, Konare lamented, they 
will be forced to apply sanctions if Meles' pride pushes him 
to reject assistance.  Konare said that AU Assembly Chairman 
President Obasanjo had asked to come to Addis to meet with 
the opposition, but Meles responded that he has the situation 
under control.  Konare stated that Meles has even greater 
respect for Rwandan President Kagame and South African 
President Mbeki.  He suggested that these leaders be called 
upon to exert positive influence on Meles and to advocate 
compromise. 
 
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WARDING OFF THE SPECTER OF WAR 
------------------------------ 
 
5. (C) If the internal political situation is not stabilized, 
Konare said, border tensions with Eritrea could lead to war 
and a certain Ethiopian attempt to capture Asmara.  Konare 
noted that the political situation in Africa today is 
markedly different from that during the 1998-2000 
Ethiopia-Eritrea war, and that war now will destabilize the 
entire region.  Konare said that Egypt is also concerned 
about the regional impact of war between Ethiopia, 
especially on Sudan.  President Mubarak is considering 
dispatching his Foreign Minister to Asmara under the pretext 
of discussing Sudan with Isaias and hopes to use any open 
door to discuss the border. 
 
6. (C) Konare said he believes that, although the law is on 
Eritrea's side, demarcation as-is without dialogue will lead 
to war.  Dialogue does not mean Ethiopia is right, he noted. 
Konare said that the AU considered convening an informal 
meeting of the Algiers Witnesses, but has very limited 
ability to contribute to a solution.  The UN has also been 
sidelined.  The U.S. holds the most leverage with both 
parties, Konare noted.  Yamamoto replied that lack of forward 
progress on the border is a problem for the entire 
international community, which is increasingly frustrated. 
He said that simultaneous demarcation and dialogue towards 
normalization may hold the best chance of success.  Konare 
agreed, and advocated careful groundwork to ensure dialogue 
is not stillborn. 
 
7. (C) Peace and Security Commissioner Djinnit said that the 
AU favors prioritization of Algiers Accord requirements and 
indicated that the AU does not believe the time is right for 
a study on the causes of war between the two countries, as 
provided for under Article 3. 
 
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SOMALIA:  PAY NOW TO SAVE LATER 
------------------------------- 
 
8. (C) Konare reported that there are signs that 
Mogadishu-based groups may be willing to dialogue with the 
Jowhar-based Transitional Federal Government (TFG).  He noted 
that the TFG has no means of sustainment and that Somalia 
needs a bare minimum of support to function as a state. 
Konare said he told U.S. interlocutors during meetings in 
Washington last April that Mogadishu could become a hub for 
Al-Qaeda, putting U.S. and French bases in Djibouti at risk. 
Fighting terrorism in the region requires more than just 
commando operations, Konare stated.  The international 
community should support a viable Somali state, including 
through promoting disarmament and demobilization. 
 
9. (C) While advocating dialogue between the Somali parties, 
Konare said there is an inherent danger in leaving Somalia to 
its own devices.  He argued for support now to prevent future 
disaster.  Konare noted that the AU has "tried to make 
amends" for IGAD's mistake in calling for deployment of 
troops to Somalia, but that the AU's ability to facilitate 
dialogue between the Somali parties is limited without the AU 
having much to offer.  Peace and Security Commissioner 
Djinnit said that the AU plans to organize  consultations 
with the international community to discuss how to promote 
Somali dialogue as well as support post-conflict 
reconstruction and stabilization.  Yamamoto told Konare and 
Djinnit that the USG continues internal discussions on 
Somalia and is contemplating sending   teams to Hargesa and 
Jowhar.  Ethiopia, Kenya and the AU are all important players 
on Somalia, he noted.  Konare welcomed the possibility of 
additional U.S. engagement. 
 
10. (C) On Somaliland, Konare noted that the AU meets with 
Somaliland officials at the highest level and that the Deputy 
Chairperson went on mission to Hargesa.  While Somaliland 
seeks observer status at the AU, Konare said, the AU 
encourages dialogue between Somaliland and Somalia aimed at 
political accommodation. 
 
11. (U) DAS Yamamoto cleared this cable. 
 
 
 
 
HUDDLESTON