US embassy cable - 05NAIROBI4984

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 004984 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2025 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, KE, Referendum 
SUBJECT: KENYA ON HOLD: NO NEW CABINET AND NO DIALOGUE 
 
REF: A. NAIROBI 4902 
 
     B. NAIROBI 4901 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Michael J. Fitzpatrick for reasons 1 
.4 (b,d) 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY: A week after President Kibaki dismissed his 
cabinet and suspended Parliament indefinitely, no clear 
picture has emerged of the post-referendum Kenyan political 
landscape.  The Ambassador's conversation with Orange 
Democratic Movement leaders revealed a group still groping 
its way in the dark; meanwhile, a flow of influential 
visitors has been unable to convince the president to face 
reality and approach the Orange team in earnest.  END SUMMARY. 
 
THE AMBASSADORS AND THE ORANGES 
------------------------------- 
2.  (C) The Ambassador, along with Chiefs of Mission from 
Canada, Japan, Switzerland, Denmark, and the Netherlands, 
lunched November 30 with Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) 
leaders Raila Odinga, Uhuru Kenyatta, William Ruto, and Peter 
Anyang' Nyong'o to gain a sense of their objectives and 
direction.  The ODM members emphasized their offer to enter 
into a dialogue with the Kibaki government (or what remains 
of it), noting that the president had made no overtures to 
the Movement as a collective, only to certain individuals -- 
an approach unacceptable to the ODM.  (NOTE: in a separate 
conversation, MP Reuben Ndolo told Poloff that First Lady 
Lucy Kibaki had been sent as interlocutor to the ODM on 
November 25, a gesture taken by the movement as a political 
slap in the face.  END NOTE.)  Discontented with Kibaki's 
lack of communication, approximately 30 ODM members, with a 
handful of lawyers, headed November 30 to Naivasha to 
strategize on the way forward for the constitutional review 
process, and their own organizational structure.  Commenting 
on the significance of the referendum result, Kenyatta 
remarked that it exposed the chasm between Kikuyu Central 
Province (the only one to vote "Yes") and the rest of the 
country.  The message to Kibaki, he continued, is that the 
president cannot go about business as usual. 
 
WHAT THEY WANT 
-------------- 
3.  (C) The ODM leaders told the Ambassador that they are 
looking for the government to engage them in structured 
discussion, strictly as a group, although they have appointed 
Moi's former legal adviser Mutula Kilonzo as the 
organization's mouthpiece.  The organization has two 
priorities: that Kibaki should commit to a "time-bound" 
legislative agenda, and to continuing and completing the 
constitutional review process.  Contrary to statements 
immediately following the referendum, the ODM asserted they 
are not insisting on snap general elections.  Claiming they 
are not out to bring down President Kibaki, they are keeping 
snap elections in their back pocket as a fall back.  They 
confirmed that they intended to run as a coalition -- with 
LDP and KANU retaining their independent party identities -- 
in 2007 elections.  The ODM also informed the five Chiefs of 
Mission that, although they had not formally assessed the 
numbers, they did not believe they currently had enough votes 
in Parliament for a vote of no confidence, which would force 
Kibaki to call early elections.  (NOTE: 150 of Kenya's 210 
constituencies voted Orange; but not all of those MPs 
necessarily back risking their perks in early elections.  A 
vote of no confidence requires a simple majority of all 222 
voting Members of Parliament (including 12 nominated MPs). 
END NOTE.)  The ODM has not achieved a unified internal 
position for achieving constitutional reform, something they 
hope to hammer out in Naivasha.  In their discussion with the 
Ambassador, both the option of convening a constituency 
committee to negotiate a new draft, and amending the current 
constitution, arose as possibilities. 
 
MANY VISITORS, NO ORANGES 
------------------------- 
4.  (C) While Kibaki has not met with any of the ODM 
leadership, he has received other visitors since the 
referendum, including former Kenya Wildlife Service Director 
Richard Leakey and former Constitutional Affairs Minister 
Charles Njonjo.  The men spoke with the president shortly 
after the Ambassador on November 25 (ref A) carrying the same 
message urging Kibaki to seize the opportunity to renew his 
reform agenda and to engage in dialogue with the ODM.  Leakey 
commented to the Ambassador that he was "disappointed" with 
Kibaki's laconic response, and that Njonjo was so dismayed, 
he -- who has avoided appearing in public for many, many 
years -- participated in the Orange thanksgiving and prayer 
rally the very next day (ref B).  Former president Moi has 
also visited State House, similarly encouraging Kibaki to 
reach out to the ODM. 
ROADBLOCKS FOR THE ORANGES, LITERALLY 
------------------------------------- 
5.  (SBU) On orders from an unnamed source, police in Mombasa 
have been instructed to "seal off" the Municipal Stadium, the 
venue chosen for the ODM's first "thanks rally", according 
The Standard newspaper November 30.  Citing "firm 
instructions to stop the rally at all costs," the report 
quoted government spokesman Alfred Mutua as noting that the 
order was consistent with the November 27 ban on ODM mass 
gatherings (ref B), adding that police would not license the 
meeting.  (VP Awori's ban on Orange rallies, by the way, has 
yet to be legally gazzetted, as required to give it the force 
of law.) The ODM has insisted it will go ahead with the 
December 10 event. 
 
COMMENT: KIBAKI'S REALITY 
------------------------- 
6.  (C) The ODM gives the impression not of confidence, but 
of concern, of feeling stuck.  This may stem from the 
disparate, and perhaps fragile, nature of its makeup as an 
organization initially cobbled together for a single purpose 
(now achieved).  Tea-leaf reading increasingly suggests that 
President Kibaki may well try to pick and choose among 
palatable (to him) KANU members, such as Nicholas Biwott, and 
lesser lights among the LDP, bypassing the KANU and LDP 
leaderships in an effort to "gut it out" with a parliamentary 
majority of his own design.  But with less than one week 
remaining before his self-imposed two week deadline for 
naming a new cabinet, President Kibaki gives no indication 
that he appreciates what the ODM has characterized as a 
crisis.  The longer he allows the current uncertainty to 
steep, the less confidence there is in his ability to lead as 
President of all Kenyans (instead of as chief of the Kikuyu 
tribe) -- particularly among his rivals. 
BELLAMY