US embassy cable - 05ADDISABABA3991

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ADDIS ABABA 003991 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AF FOR A/S FRAZER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, ET, ELEC, UNREST 
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: PM MELES TELLS DAS YAMAMOTO THAT GOE IS 
MOVING ON DEMOCRACY, BUT DEMANDS POLITICAL SPACE TO DO SO 
 
 
Classified By: DAS Don Yamamoto for reason 1.4 (b,d) 
 
 
1 (C) Summary: PM Meles told AF DAS Don Yamamoto Nov. 29 that 
his government was already moving to resume Ethiopia's "march 
toward democracy" following unrest in early November.  Meles 
regretted the loss of life from the disturbances, and 
acknowledged that some mistakes had been made, but said the 
"insurrection" had to be put down.  Yamamoto pressed for the 
release of CUD opposition leaders, but the PM replied that 
trying them for their alleged effort to overthrow the GOE was 
essential to developing a respect for the rule of law.  CUD 
detainees will be formally charged on December 2; trials will 
be in ordinary courts and open to international observation. 
About 5,000 protestors will be charged with lesser offenses. 
The PM pledged that Parliament would conduct a review of its 
own rules of procedure and resume work on a new press law, 
drawing in both cases on expertise from developed 
parliamentary democracies.  Meles promised a new National 
Electoral Board in June 2006 and indicated that local 
elections would likely be postponed until 2007 due to the 
need to calm current tensions.  The PM expressed pessimism 
that a quorum of CUD MPs would take over the government of 
Addis Ababa, but said he would wait another few weeks before 
appointing a temporary government to fill the void.  He also 
argued pointedly that political dialogue between the GOE and 
opposition parties could only resume after foreign embassies 
ceased providing opposition leaders an alternative to dealing 
directly with the EPRDF.  Yamamoto and Charge argued that the 
GOE would continue to face problems with international donors 
over its treatment of the opposition, Meles vowed not to 
sacrifice what he called Ethiopia's long-term democratic 
development for the "mob justice" of international public 
opinion.  He also reiterated his promise that his current 
term as Prime Minister would be his last.  Septels will cover 
discussion concerning the Eritrean border and Somalia 
issues.  End Summary. 
 
2 (C) DAS Don Yamamoto met Nov. 29 with PM Meles Zenawi, 
accompanied by Charge Huddleston and PolEcon Counselor Kevin 
Sullivan.  MFA Director for Europe and the Americas Grum Abay 
and a notetaker joined the PM.  This message covers 
discussion on internal political issues.  Septel will cover 
discussion of the border conflict with Eritrea and as well as 
policy toward Somalia. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
Yamamoto: Is Ethiopia Still on Path to Democracy? 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
3. (C) Yamamoto told Meles that the Secretary had asked him 
to give the Prime Minister a sense of the concern in 
Washington over recent events in Ethiopia.  He described 
recent protests at the White House and in Crawford, Texas, 
and underscored USG concerns about "hate messages" coming 
from some quarters of the Ethiopian Diaspora in Washington. 
The USG hoped Ethiopia would be a model for African democracy 
and an important ally on issues like Somalia and fighting 
terrorism.  At the same time, U.S. leaders were worried about 
how the GOE was dealing with the opposition and the GOE's 
commitment to the process of democratization. 
 
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Meles: Insurgency Put Down, Stability Restored 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
4. (C) Meles conveyed his appreciation for the USG's response 
to recent developments, and emphasized that he wanted values 
-- not security -- to be the basis of our bilateral 
relationship.  Ethiopia was involved in democratization not 
because of international pressure, however, but rather 
because it was essential to the country's long-term 
survival.  He defended GOE efforts since the May 15 elections 
to engage in dialogue with the opposition and verify facts 
concerning the disputed election results.  A key element of 
the ruling EPRDF coalition's strategy had been to break the 
link between hard-line elements of the opposition -- which 
were committed to overthrowing the constitution -- and the 
large body of voters who simply wanted to send the EPRDF a 
message of protest over particular policies like taxation and 
agricultural policy.  That goal had been achieved. 
 
5. (C) The PM expressed regret over the loss of life during 
early November street protests, calling deaths "completely 
unacceptable."  He acknowledged that some errors had been 
made at the local level in dealing with the unrest, but said 
the "insurrection" had to be put down.  Meles said the GOE 
had arrested over 10,000 people initially, comprised mostly 
of unemployed urban youth that had been "used" by Coalition 
for Unity and Democracy (CUD) leaders.  He added that the 
Eritrean government had practically "blackmailed" the Oromo 
Liberation Front (OLF) to join the fray, but this effort to 
destabilize the country also failed.  All detainees had now 
been screened; those who had merely thrown stones had been 
released.  Around 5,000 detainees remained in custody and 
would be charged with lesser offenses that would like result 
in prison sentences of a few months.  Detainees had initially 
faced risks of overcrowding and disease, but the GOE had 
moved quickly to address these problems and had spent a lot 
of money doing so.  The country was now as stable as it ever 
had ever been. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
CUD Leaders to be Charged, Tried in Open Court 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
6. (C) PM Meles told DAS Yamamoto that the GOE would formally 
charge imprisoned CUD leaders on Friday.  (Note: CUD leaders 
announced Nov. 28 that several would begin a hunger strike 
that day.  End note)  Their trials would be open to their 
lawyers and family members as well as to representatives of 
the international community.  If found innocent, leaders 
would be released.  If found guilty, they would pay for their 
actions.  Yamamoto argued that the trials of detained CUD 
leaders would overshadow whatever else the GOE did to 
strengthen democracy and create continuing angst in the 
international community.  Meles replied that "this thing has 
to go all the way."  Opposition leaders had never believed 
that they would go to jail for more than a few weeks; 
embassies would save them, they thought.  It was important 
for the Diaspora and for future opposition to see that there 
were consequences for failing to respect the constitutional 
order.  For that reason, the PM said, there would be no 
pardon any time soon.  "I am aware of the public relations 
challenges these detentions pose externally," Meles 
concluded.  "This is a painful price to pay, but I know the 
value of these trials internally.  The opposition needs to 
know that no matter how much they protest in Crawford, they 
cannot change democratic processes here."  DAS Yamamoto 
pressed Meles that the unrest and trial of opposition leaders 
undercut and distracted Ethiopians from the process of 
democratization.  (Charge had pressed Meles in prior meetings 
to not/not move forward on trials.)  Yamamoto raised the idea 
of an amnesty or pardon to move beyond this crisis.  Meles 
said no, for now. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
VOA Conspiring with Ethiopian Opposition? 
---------------------------------------- 
 
7. (C) The PM returned to familiar complaints concerning the 
Voice of America (VOA) Amharic service.  He said the GOE had 
monitored calls in which employees of VOA had actually called 
opposition leaders in Ethiopia to discuss how to "spin" news 
stories to inflict maximum damage on the GOE.  VOA 
interviewers had even "coached" some subjects in how to 
respond prior to questioning.  DAS Yamamoto acknowledged the 
bias in some VOA reporting and promised to continue efforts 
in Washington to address it.  Meles said that VOA was not 
just biased in its coverage of events in Ethiopia, but was in 
fact "part and parcel of the insurrection." German "Deutsche 
Velle" broadcasts, in contrast, had reflected anti-government 
bias, but its staff was not actively part of the conspiracy 
against the EPRDF.  He also claimed that much of Ethiopia's 
private newspapers, several of whose editors were now under 
arrest, had spread the same kind of hate messages against the 
GOE. 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
PM Outlines Resumption of "March Toward Democracy" 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
8. (C) Now that unrest had been overcome, Meles said that his 
government would move ahead with a "march toward democracy." 
He said the ruling coalition would reenergize efforts in 
Parliament to pass a new press law, drawing on expertise and 
comparitive studies from model parliamentary systems in the 
developed world.  The models for the press law -- as for the 
analysis of the Parliament's rules of procedure -- would be 
the United Kingdom (because it was the oldest system) as well 
as Canada, Germany and India (because they were successful 
federal parliamentary systems.)  The objective of the law 
would be to provide for freedom of the press, but with 
accountability.  The GOE would hire its own international 
consultants to compare international systems with Ethiopia's 
and offer recommendations, and would accept donor financing, 
if available.  If not, the GOE was prepared to pay itself for 
independent advice.  The Charge presented the PM a letter on 
behalf of the Ambassadors' Donors Group (ADG) that offered 
international assistance in reviewing Ethiopia's 
parliamentary rules.  The PM pointed to a law passed that day 
to establish an independent commission to investigate the 
GOE's response to post-election unrest in June and November. 
 
9. (C) The Charge told Meles that to overcome the distrust 
that existed he should present to the public the package of 
reforms he had just outlined to DAS Yamamoto, but Meles 
declined, claiming that he had already done so in previous 
media interviews.  He claimed that Ethiopia was not going 
backward on its process toward democracy, and was waiting for 
the CUD to join it in Parliament. 
 
10. (C) Meles indicated that Parliament would renew the 
mandate of current members of the National Electoral Board 
(NEB) through June 2006 so that they could carry out a study 
of "lessons learned" from 2005 elections and receive 
capacity-building assistance to address weaknesses identified 
in the Carter Center report.  In June, Meles said he would 
appoint a new board.  The PM said the GOE had already decided 
that local elections scheduled for mid-2006 would be 
postponed for a year.  When Charge objected that the 
postponement would be interpreted badly by the public, Meles 
shot back that "the smart thing for us to do would have been 
to hold the elections early, while the opposition is still in 
disarray!" 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----------------- 
-------- 
GOE Dialogue with Opposition Won't Start Until Embassies 
Finish Theirs 
--------------------------------------------- ----------------- 
-------- 
 
11. (C) Meles told Yamamoto and Charge pointedly that the GOE 
would not resume its suspended dialogue with opposition 
parties until ambassadors finished their dialogue.  Intense 
contact between some embassies and opposition leaders had 
given the latter the idea that "this is where decisions get 
made," the PM complained.  "Opposition parties need to know 
the right address for dialogue is right here." Meles added 
that he could not and would not interfere with such contact, 
but would merely allow this phase to play itself out.  This 
approach would cost valuable time -- time Ethiopia could ill 
afford -- but there was no alternative.  Once the GOE's 
dialogue with the opposition began, some foreigners might be 
invited in, but would never direct the process.  When pressed 
for clarification by the Charge, Meles indicated that 
embassies' interaction with opposition leaders was a normal 
part of diplomacy; the problem was that some embassies seemed 
intent on "saving us Ethiopians from ourselves."  Salvation, 
said the PM, must come from within. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
PM Does Not Expect the CUD to Take Over Addis 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
12. (C) The PM expressed pessimism that a quorum of CUD 
leaders would take up their posts in the Addis Ababa Regional 
Council, "but you never know."  He said he planned to delay 
plans to appoint a temporary government for the capital for 
another three weeks, but that he could not allow the city to 
continue in limbo for longer than that.  Some CUD MPs 
appeared to want to take over the Addis administration, but 
feared that the Diaspora and others would brand them as 
traitors.  Meles denied charges that the GOE had been 
harassing opposition MPs, and claimed that in fact CUD 
hard-liners had been harassing the nearly 50 CUD MPs that had 
earlier decided to join the national Parliament.  He added 
that expected that 60 CUD MPs would ultimately join the 
Parliament.  DAS Yamamoto asked whether the GOE would hold 
new elections to fill empty seats; Meles said the GOE was 
still studying the legal implications of a boycott in 
considering bi-elections. 
 
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Comment:  Meles Asks for Political Space 
---------------------------------------- 
 
13. (C) PM Meles is displaying a kind of respectful defiance 
of the international community as he builds Ethiopian 
democracy -- his way.  He is demanding political space from 
the international community to take control of the political 
situation.  He is clearly cognizant of growing concern among 
donors about his government's treatment of the opposition and 
appears to be accelerating some confidence-building steps on 
Parliament that he had been delaying, but he is determined to 
retain control over any reform process Ethiopia undertakes. 
With his government under pressure from many sides, he wants 
to show as little weakness as possible.  While Meles may 
eventually soften his attitude on the release of some senior 
CUD leaders, we expect that it will not be for many months, 
if not years.  In the meantime, we will be watching carefully 
to see if the GOE's planned democratic reforms in Parliament, 
the NEB and the media are genuine or only for external 
consumption. 
HUDDLESTON