US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI4775

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 004775 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, TW, Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: THE GRAND PRIZE ELECTION - TAIPEI COUNTY 
 
REF: A. TAIPEI 4748 
     B. TAIPEI 4403 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reasons: 1.4 (b/d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary: The Taipei County magistrate contest remains 
too close to call, but AIT's contacts, local observers, and 
media and political party polls consistently indicate that 
opposition Kuomintang (KMT) candidate Chou Hsi-wei enjoys a 
slight lead over ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) 
candidate Luo Wen-jia heading into the election on Saturday, 
December 3.  The KMT and DPP are treating Taipei County as 
the key race in the final days of campaigning, because the 
county's large size gives it strategic importance heading 
into the 2008 presidential election and because both sides 
believe the contest is still in play.  Hoping to overtake 
Chou at the finish line, Luo and the DPP have stepped up the 
campaign tempo, focusing on mobilizing Green base voters.  In 
response, the KMT is also concentrating its final campaign 
push in Taipei County, hoping to win back control from the 
DPP of Taiwan's largest election district.  The leaders of 
both parties will focus their final campaign pushes in Taipei 
County.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (C) The population of Taipei County equals the combined 
population of twelve of the other twenty-two counties and 
cities that are holding elections on Saturday.  The KMT 
regards north Taiwan as its turf and believes that winning 
back control of key Taipei County after sixteen years is an 
important step in its effort to return to power in the 2008 
presidential election.  In addition, these are the first 
elections contested under the leadership of KMT Chairman Ma 
Ying-jeou.  Ma is Mayor of Taipei City, and a KMT victory in 
the adjacent Taipei County will further boost Ma's image as a 
winner prior to his expected run for the presidency in 2008. 
 
3.  (C) The ruling DPP hopes to prevent Taipei County from 
falling into KMT hands because losing control of Taiwan's 
largest district would make it that much more difficult to 
hold on to the presidency in 2008, and because such a defeat 
would be a potent symbol of DPP decline and difficulties.  In 
addition, DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang, the previous 
magistrate of Taipei County has a direct interest in the 
outcome because it could well decide his survival as party 
chairman and his hopes to become the DPP presidential 
candidate in 2008. 
 
4.  (C) Polling from the past several days by the leading 
pro-KMT newspaper gives Chou a 14 percent lead, while 
comparable polling by the leading pro-DPP newspaper shows 
Chou with a 2 percent lead.  DPP internal polling from 
November 15 has Chou ahead by 2.8 percent, while KMT internal 
polling from the same period has Chou with a 9 percent lead. 
Some AIT contacts have suggested that splitting the 
difference between polling associated with the competing 
parties may give a more accurate assessment of the actual 
situation.  Numerous AIT contacts stress, however, that there 
are a variety of reasons why polling, though useful for 
reference, cannot be relied on for accurate prediction of the 
outcome of a close election.  These reasons include voter 
turnout levels, voters who are undecided, or who refuse to 
answer or even deliberately mislead poll takers, and the 
effects of new, often unexpected, campaign developments. 
Some of our contacts speculate that more DPP voters than 
normal are temporarily "hidden" in the undecided or 
refuse-to-answer categories but could turn out and boost the 
final vote totals for Luo. 
 
5.  (C) Soochow University Professor Emile Sheng suggested to 
AIT that Luo is trailing Chou in the polls for two reasons. 
First, election results over the past decade show that core 
KMT supporters outnumber DPP supporters in Taipei County. 
Second, Luo is suffering the effects of relentless KMT 
attacks on corruption at top levels in the DPP government. 
During a discussion with AIT in the early stages of the 
campaign, Taipei County Acting Magistrate Lin Hsi-yao said 
that the KMT enjoys a natural 6 percent advantage over the 
DPP in Taipei County, so Luo was starting with a handicap and 
would have to make up the difference through his campaigning. 
 Lin suggested that Luo would appeal to  young voters and 
Hakka voters (Luo is Hakka) and that increased support from 
those groups would be key to Luo's quest for victory. 
 
6.  (C) Luo began his campaign by stressing reform.  After 
falling increasingly behind in the polls because of KMT 
attacks against DPP government leaders over corruption 
issues, Luo changed the focus of his campaign to attacking 
Chou Hsi-wei for alleged financial misdealings.  Luo's 
attacks, which damaged Chou temporarily but not fatally (Chou 
simply ducked the issue and tearfully criticized DPP smear 
tactics), were a double-edged sword, sullying Luo's reform 
image and alienating some of the swing voters he had 
originally hoped to capture.  Most important, the new 
strategy was only partially effective and did not give Luo 
the lead.  Over the past few days, Luo has shifted gears 
again, stirring up the enthusiasm of base supporters through 
emotionally charged activities commemorating late DPP heroes. 
 Most recently, some of Luo's supporters were charged with 
making small payments to participants in a campaign rally, 
which, though minor, does not help Luo's effort to present a 
clean personal image. 
 
7.  (C) Party leaders from all sides are focusing on Taipei 
County in the final days of campaigning.  Before switching to 
the KMT to run for Taipei County magistrate, Chou Hsi-wei was 
a People First Party (PFP) legislator.  On November 30, PFP 
Chairman James Soong, despite hard feelings toward the KMT 
leadership, joined Chou on the platform to endorse Chou's 
campaign.  KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou has canceled some 
campaign plans in other districts in order to devote much of 
the last two days prior to the election to Chou's campaign. 
DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang has become a near permanent 
fixture in Luo's campaign, and President Chen will be in 
Taipei County both Thursday and Friday.  Health concerns and 
a commitment to support the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) 
candidate for mayor in Keelung, however, may prevent former 
President Lee Teng-hui from appearing on Luo's behalf. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
8.  (C) Traditionally, the KMT has a harder time than the DPP 
in turning out the vote, and the outcome of the Taipei County 
and some other close elections on December 3 may depend on 
which party does the better job in turning out the vote.  The 
DPP hopes the overall turnout rate in Taipei County will be 
low because the swing vote, which is most affected by the 
turnout rate, favors the KMT.  It is not yet clear, however, 
whether last-minute efforts by Luo and DPP leaders can 
succeed in mobilizing the party base in Taipei County to vote 
in large enough numbers to score a come-from-behind victory 
on Saturday.  Whichever party wins this election will almost 
certainly proclaim itself the overall winner on December 3. 
 
Paal