US embassy cable - 05TEGUCIGALPA2425

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEGUCIGALPA 002425 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA, WHA/PPC, WHA/USOAS, AND WHA/CEN 
NSC FOR DAN FISK 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2035 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, ECON, KCRM, PINR, HO 
SUBJECT: HONDURAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS DAY 4 - AFTERNOON 
STATUS REPORT: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES 
 
REF: TEGUCIGALPA 2421 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Charles Ford; 
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary: Tabulations from the Honduran Supreme 
Electoral Tribunal's (TSE) official count of the November 27 
national elections continue to trickle in.  The votes that 
have been tabulated are concurrent with the TSE's Quick 
Count, showing a likely Liberal Party presidential candidate 
Manuel "Mel" Zelaya victory.  The Liberal Party remains 
tranquil throughout this waiting game, as does the rest of 
Honduras.  Evidence is beginning to surface, however, of 
irregularities related to the election process at specific 
electoral tables.  While a formal announcement from either 
the TSE, President Ricardo Maduro, or National Party 
presidential candidate Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo in the imminent 
future remains unlikely, most OAS observers are beginning to 
depart, putting even more pressure on Honduran leaders to 
step up.  End Summary. 
 
Slow Moving, But Moving 
----------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) PolOffs were informed the afternoon of November 30 
that the Supreme Electoral Tribunal's (TSE's) sorting 
warehouse in Tegucigalpa has received 90.91 percent of the 
voting counts done by electoral tables, with 88.41 percent of 
vote counts having been sorted.  Although they have made 
similar predictions in the past, they report they will have 
all voting tabulations by tonight.  This said, only 45 
percent of the vote counts has been sent to the TSE's 
tabulation center for processing.  The remainder will be sent 
as soon as possible to the TSE tabulation center, but may 
trickle in as late as the afternoon of December 3.  The TSE 
sorting warehouse is still awaiting materials from the 
Departments of Yoro, Colon, and Comayagua.  Additionally, 
three electoral tables from the department of Olancho are 
missing and 86 bags that have arrived from San Pedro Sula 
were incomplete or contained copies rather than original vote 
counts. 
 
3. (SBU) A USAID election consultant reports an irregularity 
from one electoral table in the Francisco Morazan Department 
(area includes Tegucigalpa).  Eighty-five congressional 
ballots were split between the National and Liberal Parties 
with the exact same congressmen selected. The consultant also 
reports that it was the exact same type of "X" and the same 
handwriting.  It is his belief that this is from a table that 
only had National and Liberal Party representatives present 
and that the two colluded to stage these 85 ballots so that 
both sides "won." 
 
4. (SBU) The afternoon of November 30 the TSE released a 
press statement stating much of what has been reported 
previously (some of this is outdated): 
- The TSE asserts that it is the only institution with the 
authority and ability to carry out the counting of the votes. 
- The TSE sorting warehouse is waiting for 21.2 percent of 
the materials from the electoral tables (10,900 tables out of 
13,868 have already been received) from the departments 
Gracias a Dios, Colon, and Yoro. 
- At 9:45am November 30 43.06 percent (5,966) of the tables 
records had been updated into the TSE system. (Note: As of 
4:00pm November 30 the Liberal Party had 48.06 percent of the 
vote and the National Party had 47.51 percent.  End Note.) 
- All Tribunal activities were and continue to be monitored 
by national, international, and party observers. 
- The Tribunal has 30 days to announce official results; it 
will try to do so sooner. 
 
Election Observers Make Their Opinions Known 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
5. (SBU) PolOff met with the Director of Argentine Elections, 
Marcelo Escolar, the afternoon of November 30.  He and his 
team are serving as election monitors, similar to the role 
that the Panamanians had in the February 2005 Honduran 
primary elections.  Escolar reported: he believes that the 
vote tabulations will remain neck-and-neck until the very 
end, but then Zelaya will prove the winner by 3  percent; he 
is 99 percent confident in the TSE Quick Count tabulation; it 
could take 2-3 more days before the TSE is finished with 
tabulations of vote counts; and that the margin of an 
apparent Liberal Party victory increases by approximately one 
percentage point overall every 12 hours.  PolOff also was 
informed at 3:30pm the TSE computer server went down and will 
not be back up until after 5:00pm local time. 
 
6. (C) Special Representative of the OAS Secretary General 
and former U.S. Ambassador to Honduras Frank Almaguer 
departed Honduras the afternoon of November 30.  Moises 
Benamor, the Chief of the OAS Electoral Observer Mission, has 
plans to depart on December 2, although PolChief has 
encouraged him and his team to remain until the TSE has 
finished their tabulation of the presidential vote counts, or 
there is a concession.  Benamor expressed concern that if the 
OAS remained too long, they would be sought to assist with 
the oversight of the tabulation of the congressional vote 
counts, as well.  PolChief also encouraged the OAS to work 
with the TSE to resolve any irregularities relating to San 
Pedro Sula (reftel and para. 2).  Benamor did tell PolChief 
that the TSE vote tabulation tendencies are concurrent with 
the TSE Quick Count - i.e., projecting a Zelaya win. 
 
7. (SBU) The NGO-led domestic election observation mission 
Movimiento Civico para la Democracia de Honduras (MCDH) 
mobilized 5,599 domestic observers for the national elections 
held November 27.  On November 30, MCDH released their 
preliminary report of the national electoral observational 
program and post-election developments.  MCDH identified a 
variety of minor problems with the elections themselves: 
tardiness by electoral table (MER) officials, presence of 
activists trying to sway voters, presence of political 
observers, political activists pretending to represent the 
TSE, lack of representation of the smaller parties at many 
 
SIPDIS 
MER's, lack of training of MER delegates, bad quality of 
indelible pens for marking fingers of voters, and missing 
materials or official documents.  They also reported 
continuous opposition by an "unnamed specific political party 
 that were belligerent and unhelpful towards them. (Note: 
EmbOffs witnessed this first-hand in the field and report 
that it was the National Party, who had been similarly 
obstructive prior to the election on this topic.  End Note.) 
MCDH also took issue with TSE's unofficial announcement of a 
presidential victor based on preliminary exit-poll reports; 
they recommend decentralizing the TSE to better facilitate 
and expedite future elections.  MCDH did say, however, that 
they believe that the general elections were credible, 
transparent, and democratic. 
 
Frustrations Abound 
------------------- 
 
8. (C) Comment:  Ambassador Ford spoke with President Maduro 
on November 30.  Maduro, who told the Ambassador he was 
"hunkered down" the afternoon of November 29, reported that 
he was in bed with the flu, furthering the Embassy's concern 
that Maduro could be beholden to former Honduran President 
Raphael Callejas, known as the "Dark Side" godfather of the 
National Party.  From the conversation, it seems obvious that 
Maduro is in no hurry to declare Zelaya the winner or 
encourage Lobo to concede publicly. 
 
9. (C) Comment continued: While no significant progress was 
made on November 30, of the situation at hand is being made 
clear.  A fear grows, however, by some observers that the 
longer this drags on, the more room there is for the National 
Party to find a way to steal the election, or lay the 
groundwork for an appeal to the Supreme Court (which they 
control) on some grounds.  Embassy has not been presented 
with any evidence to contradict the statistical findings of 
the OAS and TSE Quick Counts that Mel Zelaya will indeed be 
the next President of Honduras.  End Comment. 
Ford