US embassy cable - 02HARARE2782

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 002782 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER 
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY 
PARIS FOR C. NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PREL, ASEC, ZI 
SUBJECT: DEMONSTRATIONS INCREASE - NOT CRITICAL MASS YET 
 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Audu Besmer for reasons 1.5 b/d 
 
Summary: 
-------- 
1. (U) On November 30 the National Constitutional Assembly 
(NCA) staged demonstrations in five cities to pressure the 
GOZ for a more democratic constitution.  Police arrested NCA 
staff members and demonstrators, seized demonstration 
materials and denied permission for the march in a sixth 
city.  A well-respected political analyst said these 
bi-weekly demonstrations are unlikely to be effective unless 
they are coordinated with other civic organizations and 
initiatives, and we would agree.  End Summary. 
 
2. (U) On November 30 the National Constitutional Assembly 
(NCA), an umbrella organization of 104 civic organizations 
comprising members from all over the country working for 
constitutional reform, staged 3-hour demonstration marches in 
Harare, Bulawayo, Mutare, and Gweru to pressure the GOZ for a 
more democratic constitution.  According to an NCA spokesman, 
a demonstration was also planned for Masvingo, but police 
refused to permit that march. 
 
Police Response 
--------------- 
3. (U) One day before the event, armed with a search warrant, 
police raided NCA offices in Harare and arrested seventeen 
NCA staff members including acting National Coordinator, 
Ernest Mudzenge, and acting Information Officer, Tsitsi 
Mutongi.  During the raid, police confiscated lists of NCA 
committee members with phone numbers, financial records, 
banners, t-shirts, pamphlets and other march materials.  Five 
people were also arrested during the march in Bulawayo.  Riot 
police dispersed demonstrators in Mabvuku and Mbare West in 
Harare, and also at the demonstrations in Bulawayo and 
Mutare, but in other places the marches proceeded without 
incident. 
 
Numbers Involved 
---------------- 
4. (U) According to NCA Chairman Lovemore Madhuku, 250 - 300 
people attended each of the demonstrations in Highfield, 
Zengeza, Kuwadzana, Glen Norah, Mabvuku and Mbare (all 
suburbs of Harare), and Bulawayo, Mutare and Gweru.  NCA has 
been holding bi-weekly demonstrations in selected areas for 
the past year generally involving about 150 - 200 people, and 
plans to continue to organize them.  (Note: One NCA estimate 
puts the number of participants at 8000 nationwide for this 
latest march, but 2500 is a more likely estimate.  End Note.) 
 
Need to Coordinate Efforts 
-------------------------- 
5. (U) According to Brian Raftopoulos, Coordinator of the 
Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition and a well-respected political 
analyst, although NCA was able to increase the numbers for 
these demonstrations, alone they are unlikely to have much 
effect.  He said "the people" have not yet taken ownership of 
NCA's demonstrations, and the effort is too narrow. 
Raftopoulos, whose Crisis group is sponsoring a major 
conference with churches and civic groups in Bulawayo on 
December 14 to discuss land reform, governance, human rights, 
justice, HIV, and regional solidarity, recommended that NCA 
coordinate its demonstrations with the efforts and issues of 
other civic groups to support a broader approach to problems 
in Zimbabwe.  He said this was the only way to be effective. 
 
Comment: 
-------- 
6. (C) Although NCA's demonstrations may have involved a 
total of 2-3000 people, we are inclined to agree with 
Raftopoulos' assessment that "the people" have not taken 
ownership of them yet.  Other civic leaders have suggested 
that public confrontations with government are forthcoming, 
but our sense is that the anger of most Zimbabweans at their 
government is currently outweighed by the day-to-day need to 
put food on the table, coupled with the fear of retribution. 
The success of a national stayaway planned for December 10 by 
the NCA and other civic groups, in conjunction with the MDC, 
will be a revealing test of whether Zimbabweans have 
concluded that confrontation with the GOZ and its security 
forces is the only means of changing their lives for the 
better.  End Comment. 
SULLIVAN