US embassy cable - 05TEGUCIGALPA2421

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEGUCIGALPA 002421 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA, WHA/PPC, WHA/USOAS, AND WHA/CEN 
NSC FOR DAN FISK 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, ECON, KCRM, PINR, HO 
SUBJECT: HONDURAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS DAY 4 - STILL NOT 
IN THE WINNER'S CIRCLE 
 
REF: TEGUCIGALPA 2414 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Charles A. Ford; 
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary: While progress with the Honduran Supreme 
Electoral Tribunal's (TSE) official tabulation of the 
November 27 national elections remains slower than all 
observers would like, all reports show that counting 
continues around the clock and without incident.  Honduras 
remains calm.  The Embassy's press statement released late 
afternoon of November 29 about the electoral situation has 
been well received by the media, though some have taken 
liberties in reporting what the text stated.  Post stays 
hopeful that President Ricardo Maduro or the TSE will 
announce a winner in the near future.  End Summary. 
 
2. (SBU) PolOffs received confirmation the morning of 
November 30 that the Supreme Electoral Tribunal's (TSE's) 
sorting warehouse in Tegucigalpa has received 90 percent of 
the voting tabulations done by electoral tables and expects 
to have the last 10 percent in by noon November 30, although 
this could slip to the afternoon.  It has been reported, 
however, that similar to the February 2005 primaries, several 
hundred electoral tables have problems/irregularities 
including incomplete or erroneous voting tabulations, 
particularly for congress.  Whether or not this is due to 
incompetence, honest mistakes, or attempted low-level fraud 
remains uncertain, as does how and if this will delay the 
official vote tabulation.  To resolve similar problems after 
the primaries, the voting tables were reconstituted to 
recount the ballots in order to correctly complete voting 
tabulations. 
 
3. (SBU) TSE shift work seems to be working effectively, 
though not speedily.  As of approximately 12:15pm on November 
30, 44.4 percent of vote counts had been tabulated: 464,414 
for Liberal Party presidential candidate Manuel "Mel" Zelaya 
and 459,093 for National Party presidential candidate 
Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo.  These numbers reflect 85 percent of 
the ballots from the Department of Francisco Morazan (which 
includes Tegucigalpa, a heavily National Party city) where 
Lobo is beating Zelaya 49.25 percent to 44.64 percent.  The 
count also includes 41.88 percent of the ballots from the 
Department of Cortes (which includes the city of San Pedro 
Sula, a generally Liberal Party city) where Zelaya is beating 
Lobo 50.15 percent 43.12 percent.  The TSE has also begun to 
tabulate congressional and mayoral vote counts.  (Note: The 
vote count tabulations for each electoral table include 
presidential, mayoral, and congressional vote counts all on 
the same document.  End Note.)  The TSE has experienced some 
computer problems delaying tabulation of vote counts.  The 
TSE has established a high level commission with 
 
SIPDIS 
representatives of the five parties to study incomplete or 
incorrect vote counts by individual electoral tables, with 
the parties using their copies from the tables. 
 
4. (SBU) San Pedro Sula is experiencing its own local set of 
issues, as well, causing Lobo to visit the city the afternoon 
of November 29.  The municipal electoral tribunal in San 
Pedro Sula did a tabulation of vote counts in the San Pedro 
Sula mayoral race and declared November 29 that Liberal Party 
mayoral candidate Rodolfo Padilla Sunseri had beaten National 
Party mayoral candidate Arturo "Tucky" Bendana (as predicted 
in initial exit polls).  There were public accusations of 
fraud related to this process.  (There are also reports that 
the same municipal electoral tribunal may intend to tabulate 
vote counts from unnamed municipalities in the neighboring 
Yoro Department.)  Tabulations of vote counts by municipal 
electoral tribunals were not foreseen in TSE pre-election 
plans based on the new electoral law.  TSE officials have 
told the Embassy that they are instructing the municipal 
electoral tribunal in San Pedro Sula to cease and desist any 
tabulations of vote counts and send all electoral materials 
to Tegucigalpa via the military for official tabulations. 
 
5. (SBU) The Embassy's press statement, released in the late 
afternoon of November 29, has been received very well by the 
press in Honduras.  While some papers scanned in the press 
release or printed it verbatim, others, such as El Heraldo, 
took liberties with the statement that there are indications 
that there is a projected winner, and reported on the United 
States' "tacit endorsement" of Zelaya as the winner.  The 
Embassy and OAS's statements, combined with the Ambassador's 
meetings with both Lobo and Zelaya the morning of November 
29, seem to have helped quiet things down.  Although Post 
continues to receive reports that internal dialogue is 
occurring within the parties, significantly less reaching out 
to EmbOffs by National and Liberal Party officials is 
occurring. 
 
6. (C) Comment: There are rumors that back room wheelings and 
dealings between the National Party and the Liberal Party to 
protect National Party figures suspected of corruption are 
the real culprit behind the reluctance of Lobo and the 
National Party to concede.  Post continues to monitor the 
TSE's progress carefully and remains hopeful that the 
 
SIPDIS 
National Party's private assurance to the Ambassador that 
they know they lost the presidential election means they will 
recognize a loss once the TSE's numbers, as expected, show 
such an occurrence.  The question that still remains is when 
will enough votes have been tabulated for Lobo to officially 
throw in the towel.  The fear is that he will not do so until 
all votes are in, with some speculation that the National 
Party (perhaps using the San Pedro Sula situation) will 
charge fraud to try to prevent a Zelaya victory.  End Comment. 
Ford