US embassy cable - 05ROME3936

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 003936 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, MOPS, IZ, IT, IRAQI FREEDOM, ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS 
SUBJECT: ITALY: ON IRAQ CENTER-LEFT MOVES RIGHT 
 
REF: A. ROME 3376 
     B. ROME 3467 
     C. ROME 3763 
 
Classified By: Political Minister Counselor David D. Pearce for reasons 
 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY:  DS Party Secretary Piero Fassino says that 
if a Center-Left government comes to power next spring it 
would withdraw troops from Iraq in close coordination with 
the Iraqi government, the U.S. and other allies.  A DS 
Official told us that Center-Left PM candidate Romano Prodi 
had approved Fassino's statement in advance.  Reformist 
members of the Center-left have embraced Fassino's proposal, 
but the Greens and Italian Communist party, both member's of 
Prodi's Union coalition, have threatened to abandon the 
coalition if Italian troop withdrawal from Iraq is not 
immediate.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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CENTER LEFT TAKES MODERATE VIEW ON IRAQ DEPLOYMENT 
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2. (C) Democrats of the Left (DS) Party Secretary Piero 
Fassino, seen as a potential Foreign Minister in a future 
Center-Left government, said in a November 6 interview, 
"Together with the Iraqis, the Americans, and the British we 
will discuss a calendar for withdrawal useful to the Iraqi 
transition" if the Center-Left wins the Spring 2006 
elections.  At a party conference one week later, Fassino 
said that troop withdrawal would be gradual and in 
consultation with the Iraqi government.  Fassino's phrasing 
differed slightly from Center-Left leader Romano Prodi's 
standard line that if elected, he would "establish an agenda 
to withdraw its military from Iraq and engage the country in 
reconstruction."  Head of the DS Office of International 
Affairs Lucciano Vecchi assured Poloff that Fassino had 
cleared his comments with Prodi in advance. 
 
3. (U) Other leaders of the "reformist" component of the 
Center-Left coalition have since echoed Fassino's comments. 
Daisy Party leader Francesco Rutelli immediately confirmed 
Fassino's statement that the Center-Left would discuss the 
withdrawal with allies and with the government of Iraq. 
Radical party leader and former EU Commissioner Emma Bonino 
welcomed the newly enunciated position of the Center-Left. 
She had previously said, "Today, pulling out of Iraq would 
only mean putting the country in the hands of headhunters and 
civil war...We were against the war...but once war was 
declared we must chose which side to take."  Italian Social 
Democrat (SDI) leader Enrico Boselli responded similarly, 
that, " We must understand what is happening to Iraq's 
fragile democracy and not leave it in the hands of 
terrorists." 
 
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RADICAL LEFT STILL FAVORS IMMEDIATE WITHDRAWAL 
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4. (SBU) Fassino's comments sparked a strong negative reply 
from radical fringes of the Center-Left coalition.  Il 
Manifesto, the newspaper for the extreme left Communist 
Renewal Party (RC), strongly criticized Fassino's comments in 
a November 8 editorial, saying it is one thing to say a 
Center-Left government would fix a calendar and something 
else to say any troop withdrawals would be coordinated with 
the Americans, "who are in no hurry to leave."  The 
Center-Left's three radical members, the Communist Renewal 
(RC), Italian Communist Party (PDCI), and the Greens continue 
to call for the immediate withdrawal of all Italian troops 
from Iraq. 
 
5. (SBU) Communist Renewal leader Fausto Bertinotti has 
generally been considered the radical left's spokesperson on 
the issue of Italian troop withdrawal.  However, his tone has 
moderated slightly since his striking defeat in the 
Center-Left's October 16 primary (REFS A and B).  He 
responded to Fassino's comments that Fassino should be 
careful not to "cause confusion" and not to "play with 
words."  Press commentators suggest Bertinotti has toned down 
his rhetoric in order to avoid a public dispute with Prodi. 
The Green's Pecoraro Scanio, trying to appeal to the pacifist 
left, said November 15, "On April 10, he (Prodi) will 
announce the withdrawal of our troops from Iraq."  He 
continued, "It has to be clear to our allies that if there is 
no withdrawal, then there is no government by the Union, 
because we would pull out."  Scanio says a withdrawal must 
take no more than two or three months. 
 
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COALITION PLATFORM DEBATE A SIGN OF THINGS TO COME 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
6. (C) Daisy Party Foreign Affairs Adviser Luca Bader told 
Poloff that the Union is currently negotiating the coalition 
platform, which the Union will present on January 21. 
According to the press, PDCI Foreign Affairs representative 
Jacopo Venier stormed out of a November 24 platform 
negotiation on Iraq.  Venier was quoted saying, "The text 
they have proposed is unacceptable.  Sandro Bondi (FI) could 
sign it."  Venier said he was dissatisfied with the line 
proposing, "We will immediately propose to our Parliament 
that we withdraw our contingent from Iraq, defining, in 
consultation with Iraqi authorities, the modalities, with the 
goal of ensuring security."  Venier said the PDCI's position 
remains that troop withdrawal must be immediate and 
unconditional.  Venier complained that he was told the 
language could not be changed because the DS and Bertinotti's 
RC had already agreed on it. 
 
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COMMENT 
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7. (C) COMMENT:  With active encouragement from Iraqi 
President Talibani (REF C), Washington visitors, and the 
Embassy, the reformist component of the Center-Left coalition 
has publicly moved to a policy on Italian troop deployments 
in Iraq that is nearly indistinguishable from the Berlusconi 
government's policy: troop withdrawal in consultation with 
the Iraqi government and its allies with a lingering 
commitment to civil reconstruction.  The issue is whether 
Prodi and his moderate allies could force that policy on the 
radical left in the event of a Center-Left victory.  Opinion 
polls show the Center-Left's lead has narrowed from eight 
percentage points in August to within the range of 
statistical error in the most recent polls.  Ironically, a 
close victory by the Center-Left would strengthen the 
extremist parties' relative importance to the coalition and 
give Prodi less flexibility.  END COMMENT. 
SPOGLI