US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV6710

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 006710 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, IS, ELECTIONS 2006, GOI INTERNAL, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS, PEACE PROCESS 
SUBJECT: KADIMA TAKES BITE OUT OF THREE PARTIES; PLATFORM 
CALLS FOR TWO-STATE SOLUTION 
 
REF: TEL AVIV 6673 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Norman Olsen for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
1.  (U) Summary: Prime Minister Sharon's Kadima Party 
continues to siphon off high-profile politicians from other 
parties, and its support in the polls is climbing.  Labor 
Party MK and Shimon Peres's close confidante, Dalia Yitzik, 
announced late November 28 that she is joining Kadima.  The 
nation awaits an announcement expected November 30 by former 
Labor Party leader Shimon Peres about his political future, 
with much speculation as to whether he will accept a peace 
envoy position in a Sharon-led government.  At its Knesset 
faction meeting November 28, Kadima party members agreed on a 
national platform, which immediately leaked, that calls for 
the preservation of Israel as a Jewish, democratic state 
through the establishment of a demilitarized Palestinian 
state in the territory of "the land of Israel" (read: Gaza 
and parts of the West Bank).  The latest poll shows Kadima 
would receive 34 Knesset seats if elections were held today, 
up one seat from last week.  Likud would win only 10 seats, 
down from 13 last week, ranking fourth, after Kadima, Labor 
and Shas.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (C) Political Shifts in Shinui, Labor, and Likud to Kadima 
 
-- Sources close to former Labor leader Shimon Peres say that 
he is likely to align himself, but not actually join, the 
Kadima Party, and accept a position as some sort of peace 
envoy in any future Sharon-led government.  Peres said he 
will announce his decision November 30. 
 
-- Labor MK and former Minister of Communications Dalia 
Itzik, a close confidante of Peres, announced late November 
28 that she is leaving the Labor Party to join Kadima.  Some 
observers speculate that Peres conditioned his political 
support for Kadima on Sharon offering Itzik a choice position 
in Kadima. 
 
-- Labor MK and former Environment Minister Shalom Simhon is 
also considering whether to leave Labor to join Kadima. 
 
-- One of the Shinui Party's founders, Uriel Reichman, 
confirmed November 29 that he is joining Kadima (reftel). 
Shinui MK Ilan Shalgi told Poloff November 29 that Sharon 
offered Reichman the Ministry of Education portfolio in any 
future Sharon government.  He said that Reichman's move is a 
setback for Shinui leader Lapid. 
 
-- Responding to an official invitation, 72 Likud, Labor and 
non-affiliated mayors and heads of regional councils from 
around the country attended a meeting with Sharon at his 
residence to discuss the Kadima Party.  Some half of those 
who attended reportedly announced they intend to join the 
Kadima party. 
 
-- Meretz MK Zehava Gal-On told Poloff November 29 that 
Meretz leader Yossi Beilin's November 27 announcement of his 
party's willingness to join Kadima was "premature" (see 
reftel).  She stressed that Beilin made the announcement 
without the party's agreement. 
 
3.  (U) Labor Reels in a Public Figure 
 
-- The media has had a lovefest covering Channel Two reporter 
Sheli Yehimovitch's move to join the Labor Party.  Television 
news broadcasts November 29 devoted long segments showing the 
popular Yehimovitch arriving at Labor Party headquarters, 
being escorted into Peretz's office, and sitting cozily with 
Peretz on the office couch with his arm around her.  Peretz's 
search for prominent personalities from outside the Knesset 
to join his party list could threaten the seats of current 
Labor MKs. 
 
4. (U) Kadima Announces Simple Election Platform 
 
-- The Kadima faction platform as leaked to the media calls 
for the establishment of a demilitarized Palestinian state 
alongside Israel in order to preserve Israel's Jewish 
majority and its democratic nature. 
 
-- The Kadima platform also calls for the preservation of an 
undivided Jerusalem and retention of major West Bank 
settlement blocs under Israeli control. 
 
-- The platform also states that the roadmap will be a part 
of Kadima's national agenda and that the establishment of a 
Palestinian state will be achieved in stages, the first of 
which will include the dismantling of terrorist 
organizations, collecting firearms, implementing security 
reforms in the Palestinian Authority and preventing 
incitement. 
 
-- The platform alludes to the need for political reforms, 
including the introduction of constituency-based elections 
and open primaries for Knesset members and the premiership. 
 
5.  (U) Latest Polls Show Likud Losing Ground 
 
--  A Dahaf Polling Institute poll released November 30 shows 
that if elections were to be held today, Likud would garner 
only 10 Knesset seats, down to one quarter of its current 
number.  The polls showed that even the Shas Party would 
out-rank Likud, with 11 seats. 
 
-- According to the Dahaf poll, Kadima would win 34 Knesset 
seats, up one seat from last week's poll figures; the Labor 
Party would receive 27 seats, also up one seat from last 
week's survey. 
 
-- The poll shows Shinui support shrinking further, down to 
five seats from the six indicated in last week's poll. 
Shinui won 15 seats in the last election. 
 
6.  (C) Parties Prepare for Primaries. 
 
-- National Religious Party primaries are scheduled for 
January 3, according to NRP MK Shaul Yahalom.  Yahalom told 
Poloff November 29 that the NRP and the National Union (NU) 
will be submitting a united list for the elections.  He 
dismissed speculation that the other religious parties, Shas 
and United Torah Judaism, would join with the NRP and NU to 
form a broader religious/right-wing political base. 
 
-- Yahalom also commented that Avigdor Lieberman, leader of 
the Yisrael Beiteinu party, would focus on the secular 
Russian vote rather than marry up with the right-wing 
religious parties. 
 
-- Shinui MK Ilan Shalgi told Poloff that Shinui's 169-member 
council will choose the party list January 19.  Shalgi noted 
he is number three on the list, after Shinui leader Tommy 
Lapid and MK Avraham Poraz.  He commented that Shinui will 
aim to attract the secular middle class, and asserted that 
his party would be a good partner for Sharon. 
 
-- Shalgi told Poloff November 29 that he will give a speech 
to the Knesset plenary November 30, in which he will advocate 
that the GOI continue to take unilateral actions with regard 
to its borders.  He advocated that Israel retain the large 
West Bank settlement blocs, including Ariel. 
 
-- Likud MK Gilad Erdan told Poloff that nothing major will 
transpire within Likud before the party chairman is chosen in 
leadership primaries scheduled for December 19.  He commented 
that suspicion within the party exists about who from Likud 
will jump next to Sharon's ship. 
 
7.  (U) Election preparations. 
 
-- The Population Administration announced November 27 that 
in the upcoming elections, over five million people are 
registered to vote. 
 
 
 
 
 
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