US embassy cable - 05YEREVAN2083

C O N F I D E N T I A L YEREVAN 002083 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PHUM, AM 
SUBJECT: USG NEXT STEPS FOLLOWING A "MARRED" CONSTITUTIONAL 
REFERENDUM 
 
REF: A) YEREVAN 2074 B) YEREVAN 2062 
 
Classified By: Amb. John M. Evans for reasons 1.4 (b, d). 
 
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DISAPPOINTED BUT NOT WILLING TO THROW IN THE TOWEL 
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1. (C) Despite what Council of Europe (CoE) observers are 
calling a "marred" referendum and considerable NGO and 
opposition concern about alleged voting irregularities (ref 
A), we expect that the CoE will simply move forward and 
quietly embrace the new constitution that it helped draft. 
World Bank Resident Representative Roger Robinson told us 
November 29 that "sometimes you get something good out of bad 
events;" we expect that the rest of the international 
community will feel the same, and in fact, the Czech who led 
the CoE observer team made a similar comment. 
 
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MAKING LEMONADE--OUR STEPS AHEAD 
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2. (C) While we called publicly for a referendum that met 
international standards and have now joined calls for 
investigation of the allegations of fraud, the continued 
voting abuses only highlight the serious need for our 
proposed Democracy Promotion Strategy (ref B).  Specifically, 
we expect that our assistance, targeted at the upcoming 
2007/2008 electoral cycle has a better-than-even chance of 
improving the voters' lists, creating a better election 
administration, improving electoral adjudication and the 
judiciary, encouraging voter participation and enhancing 
voter information, developing reliable, objective public 
opinion polling, developing stronger political parties, 
continuing the fight against corruption, building a larger 
role for an independent media, and enhancing monitoring and 
involving the international community.  President Kocharian 
endorsed our package of measures in September, when we 
previewed it with him, and he is now in his second (and last) 
term of office.  This may provide a better context for making 
progress than would be the case if he were seeking 
re-election.  But because Kocharian is no democrat at heart, 
we also believe that our program of pro-democracy 
interventions will need to be complemented by diplomatic and 
public diplomacy pressure at every step of the way. 
 
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POSSIBLE PITFALLS 
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3. (C) If the GOAM can keep from overreacting as the 
opposition mounts (what have been to date only lackadaisical) 
protests, then we have the possibility to work with them and 
to move forward.  While preliminary indications are not 
uniformly positive (opposition groups report a number of 
detentions, although no formal arrests, in conjunction with 
this week's protests), we do not expect the GOAM to 
deliberately add fuel to the opposition's barely smoldering 
fire.  We believe that our only option, after expressing our 
disappointment, is to continue working to move Armenia closer 
to the democratic, western-looking camp. 
EVANS