US embassy cable - 05KATHMANDU2657

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 002657 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, NP 
SUBJECT:  FORMER PM THAPA WORRIED ANARCHY POSSIBLE 
 
REF: KATHMANDU 2556 
 
Classified By: CDA Elisabeth I. Millard, Reason 1.4 (b/d) 
 
Maoists-Parties Form "Unnatural Alliance" 
----------------------------------------- 
 
1. (C) Five-time former Prime Minister and leader of the 
Rastriya Janashakti Party (RJP) Surya Bahadur Thapa told the 
Charge November 30 that he was not happy that the political 
parties were "compelled to join the Maoists in an unnatural 
alliance."  He explained that while the "natural alliance" 
would have been between the King and the Parties, the King's 
failure to reach out to the Parties and the Parties' 
inability to garner public support had forced the Parties to 
join with the Maoists.  He worried that the Parties, 
especially the liberal democratic Nepali Congress, had not 
considered the long-term consequences of such an alliance. 
 
May Be Too Late for King To Do Anything But Accept It 
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2. (C) Thapa speculated that it was too late for the King to 
attempt to mollify the Parties by reshuffling his Cabinet, 
getting rid of the most corrupt and ineffective members, and 
appointing a Prime Minister.  While he did not think that 
would work, he said that the King might be able to satisfy 
the political parties if he appointed a Prime Minister with 
full authority and divested himself of power.  However, he 
noted that even this would be very difficult now that the 
Parties had reached an understanding with the Maoists. 
 
Or People Could Rise Up, Leading to Anarchy 
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3. (C) The former PM feared the possibility of a popular 
uprising that could lead to anarchy.  He explained that the 
Parties had started justifying their understanding with the 
Maoists using the slogan that they were preparing to give 
peace to the people.  This was raising people's expectations 
and if the people began to view the King and government as 
obstructing peace, there could be a groundswell against the 
Palace.  If the popular uprising continued beyond one or two 
days, it could lead to anarchy.  Thapa noted that many ethnic 
groups in Nepal feel suppressed and would seize on an 
opportunity that could lead to their greater participation in 
politics and development.  He added that the Royal Nepalese 
Army (RNA) would be unlikely to be able to protect the King. 
The majors and captains are in charge of daily operations, 
and they and most of the soldiers come from the disadvantaged 
ethnic groups or lower castes.  Thapa commented that it was 
very likely that they would join with the people.  He 
recalled the 1950 popular uprising that led to the 
dismantlement of the Rana regime and opined that now these 
ethnic groups had greater expectations and would be an even 
greater force that could bring down the government.  He 
concluded that it was thus very important that the King reach 
out to the political parties to prevent possible anarchy. 
 
Comment 
------- 
4. (C) Thapa, traditionally seen as close to the Palace, has 
become increasingly outspoken in his criticism of the King - 
publicly assigning blame to him for failing to reach out to 
the Parties.  We agree with his analysis that the danger of 
chaos and anarchy is very real.  The question is whether the 
King, currently stopping in Cairo on his way home from a 
three-week absence, will understand that it is now urgent for 
him to reverse a rapidly deteriorating political situation in 
his country. 
MILLARD